Osasuna vs Espanol prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Osasuna vs Espanol: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

La Liga
Osasuna

LDWWL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:15UK28°C · Clearing
Espanol

DWLLD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Osasuna or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
OsasunaWin probability
51.7%
Top 3 convictions

Osasuna or draw78.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 1.5 goals73.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Over 8.5 corners57.4%Good chancePays @ 1.74

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Osasuna heavy favourites at 52% when Osasuna meet Espanol in the La Liga on 12 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Our number sits above the market's 44% for Osasuna. The gap itself is information. 2) No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) For shots markets, Raul García is the obvious watch at 1.8 on target per 90 in recent data. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Osasuna, 2 draws and 2 for Espanol, averaging 1.6 goals a game. One eye on the skies, with 28 degrees of heat in the forecast. Form guide over the last six: Osasuna W2 D1 L3, Espanol W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.3%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners46.4%@ 2.16
Over 10.5 corners36.2%@ 2.76
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Both teams to score50.5%@ 1.98
Draw or Espanol48.3%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.94
1-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.73
2-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.56

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Osasuna

51.7%+7.2%

Draw

26.3%-4.2%

Espanol

22.0%-3.1%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.4%

Good chance

Over 9.546.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.2%

Low chance

Most cornersOsasuna57.2%Espanol32.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.5%

Good chance

Over 26.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Osasuna12.8 taken8.5 faced
Espanol11.8 taken13.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Osasuna (4 games)

4.5 / 6.0

Espanol (4 games)

5.2 / 6.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.2%2.547.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

OsasunaLDWWL
EspanolDWLLD

Last 5 meetings: Osasuna 1 · 2 draws · Espanol 2 · 1.6 goals/game.

2026-05-17Osasuna 1-2 Espanol
2025-08-31Espanol 1-0 Osasuna
2025-05-18Osasuna 2-0 Espanol
2024-12-14Espanol 0-0 Osasuna
2023-02-04Espanol 1-1 Osasuna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OsasunaEspanol
League position#8 of 20#12 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-11-1-2
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away1-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.00 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player
To score14.8%

@ 6.76

1+ on target40.2%

@ 2.49

2+ shots27.5%

@ 3.64

Shots/90 3.59SoT/90 1.79Goals/90 0.56
Pere MillaEspanol · key player
To score16.9%

@ 5.92

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots37.1%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.38
Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form
To score42.8%

@ 2.34

1+ on target67.8%

@ 1.47

2+ shots76.9%

@ 1.30

Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.63
Bryan ZaragozaEspanol · in form
To score4.1%

@ 24.39

1+ on target40.1%

@ 2.49

2+ shots40.2%

@ 2.49

Shots/90 2SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.06
Kike BarjaOsasuna · in form
To score6.4%

@ 15.63

1+ on target12.5%

@ 8.00

2+ shots4.5%

@ 22.22

Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.36
Roberto FernándezEspanol · in form
To score23.3%

@ 4.29

1+ on target42.5%

@ 2.35

2+ shots42.8%

@ 2.34

Shots/90 1.87SoT/90 0.71Goals/90 0.34

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Osasuna win2.151.93
Draw3.103.80
Espanol win3.754.56
Over 2.5 goals2.202.11
Under 2.5 goals1.671.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Osasuna win2.00
Draw3.78
Espanol win4.27
Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.11
Over 3.5 goals3.89
Osasuna most2.00
Espanol most4.27

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.12
Over 10.5 corners2.81
Osasuna most1.74
Espanol most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.46
Over 4.5 cards1.98
Over 5.5 cards2.99
Osasuna most2.94
Espanol most2.10

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.46
Osasuna most1.49
Espanol most4.50

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.59
Over 24.5 shots1.98
Over 26.5 shots2.62
Over 28.5 shots3.68
Osasuna most1.48
Espanol most3.71

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.42
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.1% Over 24.5 50.5% Over 26.5 38.2% Over 28.5 27.2%
Most: Osasuna 67.5% Most: Espanol 26.9%
Osasuna Over 13.2 52.7% Espanol Over 13.2 23.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.8% Over 7.5 65.4% Over 8.5 52.9% Over 9.5 40.7%
Most: Osasuna 67.0% Most: Espanol 22.2%
Osasuna Over 4.2 61.4% Espanol Over 4.2 28.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.1% Over 3.5 68.5% Over 4.5 50.4%
Most: Osasuna 34.0% Most: Espanol 47.6%
Osasuna Over 1.8 62.8% Espanol Over 1.8 71.4%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Raul García 3.59 1.79 0.56 40.2% 27.5% 14.8%
Ante Budimir 3.16 1.28 0.63 67.8% 76.9% 42.8%
Kike Barja 1.8 0.72 0.36 12.5% 4.5% 6.4%
Raul Moro 1.45 0.46 0.1 26.7% 25.6% 6.5%
Rubén García 1.06 0.36 0.11 23.4% 18.6% 7.8%

Espanol: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pere Milla 2.66 0.99 0.38 38.2% 37.1% 16.9%
Bryan Zaragoza 2 0.74 0.06 40.1% 40.2% 4.1%
Roberto Fernández 1.87 0.71 0.34 42.5% 42.8% 23.3%
Jofre Carreras 1.9 0.52 0.12 24.0% 26.5% 6.1%
Edu Expósito 1.63 0.45 0.02 28.6% 34.5% 1.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Osasuna clean sheet 36.8%
Espanol clean sheet 20.8%
Osasuna win to nil 28.5%
Espanol win to nil 12.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 50.1% draw 26.5% away 23.4%
double_chance
1X 76.6% 12 73.5% X2 49.9%
dnb
home 68.2% away 31.9%
btts
yes 50.5% no 49.5%
clean_sheet
home 37.0% away 20.8%
win_to_nil
home 28.7% away 12.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.7% home_by_2 15.5% home_by_3plus 11.0%
away_by_1 14.8% away_by_2 6.2% away_by_3plus 2.4%
correct_score
0-0 8.3% 0-1 7.0% 0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.5% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.5% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.0% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.0% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 73.2%
under_1.5 26.8% over_2.5 47.3% under_2.5 52.7%
over_3.5 25.7% under_3.5 74.3% over_4.5 11.8%
under_4.5 88.2% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 79.2% under_0.5 20.8% over_1.5 46.6%
under_1.5 53.4% over_2.5 21.0% under_2.5 79.0%
team_away
over_0.5 63.0% under_0.5 37.0% over_1.5 26.3%
under_1.5 73.7% over_2.5 8.0% under_2.5 92.0%
most
home 50.1% draw 26.5% away 23.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.0% away_+2.5 89.0% home_-1.5 26.5%
away_+1.5 73.6% home_-0.5 50.1% away_+0.5 49.9%
home_+0.5 76.6% away_-0.5 23.4% home_+1.5 91.4%
away_-1.5 8.6% home_+2.5 97.6% away_-2.5 2.4%
total_exact
exact_0 8.3% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.9% draw 48.1% away 19.0%
total
over_0.5 60.4% under_0.5 39.6% over_1.5 23.7%
under_1.5 76.3% over_2.5 6.7% under_2.5 93.3%
btts
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
total_exact
exact_0 39.6% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 17.0%
exact_3 5.3% exact_4plus 1.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.5% draw 35.1% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 79.5% under_0.5 20.5% over_1.5 47.0%
under_1.5 53.0% over_2.5 21.3% under_2.5 78.8%
btts
yes 29.2% no 70.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.2% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.8%
D/H 19.0% D/D 16.9% D/A 12.2%
A/H 2.4% A/D 4.3% A/A 12.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.5% under_7.5 28.5% over_8.5 59.6%
under_8.5 40.4% over_9.5 47.2% under_9.5 52.8%
over_10.5 35.6% under_10.5 64.4% over_11.5 25.5%
under_11.5 74.5% over_12.5 17.4% under_12.5 82.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.3% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 59.1%
under_4.5 40.9% over_5.5 43.7% under_5.5 56.3%
team_away
over_3.5 57.1% under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 39.7%
under_4.5 60.3% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
most
home 57.3% draw 10.6% away 32.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-1.5 46.2%
away_+1.5 53.8% home_-0.5 57.3% away_+0.5 42.7%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.0% home_+1.5 77.3%
away_-1.5 22.7% home_+3.5 90.4% away_-3.5 9.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.1% under_22.5 36.9% over_24.5 50.5%
under_24.5 49.5% over_26.5 38.2% under_26.5 61.8%
over_28.5 27.2% under_28.5 72.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.4% under_10.5 23.6% over_12.5 60.9%
under_12.5 39.1% over_14.5 44.5% under_14.5 55.5%
team_away
over_10.5 49.2% under_10.5 50.8% over_12.5 31.2%
under_12.5 68.8% over_14.5 17.7% under_14.5 82.3%
most
home 67.5% draw 5.6% away 26.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.5% away_+4.5 57.5% home_-2.5 55.3%
away_+2.5 44.7% home_-0.5 67.5% away_+0.5 32.5%
home_+0.5 73.1% away_-0.5 26.9% home_+2.5 82.6%
away_-2.5 17.4% home_+4.5 89.6% away_-4.5 10.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.8% under_6.5 23.2% over_7.5 65.4%
under_7.5 34.7% over_8.5 52.9% under_8.5 47.1%
over_9.5 40.7% under_9.5 59.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.7% under_3.5 23.3% over_4.5 61.4%
under_4.5 38.6% over_5.5 45.4% under_5.5 54.6%
team_away
over_3.5 46.0% under_3.5 54.0% over_4.5 28.2%
under_4.5 71.8% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
most
home 67.0% draw 10.8% away 22.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 42.0% away_+2.5 58.0% home_-0.5 67.0%
away_+0.5 33.0% home_+0.5 77.8% away_-0.5 22.2%
home_+2.5 92.1% away_-2.5 7.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.1% under_2.5 15.9% over_3.5 68.5%
under_3.5 31.5% over_4.5 50.4% under_4.5 49.6%
over_5.5 33.5% under_5.5 66.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.8% under_1.5 37.2% over_2.5 36.5%
under_2.5 63.5%
team_away
over_1.5 71.4% under_1.5 28.6% over_2.5 46.6%
under_2.5 53.4%
most
home 34.0% draw 18.3% away 47.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.0% away_+1.5 81.0% home_-0.5 34.0%
away_+0.5 66.0% home_+0.5 52.3% away_-0.5 47.7%
home_+1.5 70.0% away_-1.5 30.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.4% under_20.5 18.6% over_22.5 70.2%
under_22.5 29.8% over_24.5 57.2% under_24.5 42.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 79.0% under_9.5 21.0% over_11.5 61.4%
under_11.5 38.6% over_13.5 42.5% under_13.5 57.5%
team_away
over_9.5 78.3% under_9.5 21.7% over_11.5 60.6%
under_11.5 39.5% over_13.5 41.6% under_13.5 58.5%
most
home 47.2% draw 6.8% away 46.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-0.5 47.2%
away_+0.5 52.8% home_+2.5 67.2% away_-2.5 32.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.5% no 82.5%
home
yes 7.3% no 92.7%
away
yes 11.0% no 89.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Osasuna predictions · Espanol predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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