Santa Clara vs Rio Ave: model prediction
Primeira LigaSanta Clara or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Santa Clara at 50.9%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 56.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 66.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 55.9% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 69.4% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.2% and it landed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 50.7% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 82.5% and it landed.
| Match data | Santa Clara | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 3 | 0 |
| Shots | 16 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 3 |
| Corners | 8 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 12 | 9 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Santa Clara at 51% for 6 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Santa Clara higher (54%) than our model does. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 44%. Form guide over the last six: Santa Clara W3 D2 L1, Rio Ave W1 D1 L4. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Santa Clara, 2 draws and 2 for Rio Ave at 1.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
50.9%-3.1%
28.1%+1.0%
20.9%+2.0%
value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Santa Clara 1 · 2 draws · Rio Ave 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Santa Clara
Rio AveLeague averages this season: 2.70 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.1% | Over 7.5 | 50.7% | Over 8.5 | 38.0% | Over 9.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santa Clara | 53.8% | Most: Rio Ave | 33.0% | ||||
| Santa Clara Over 4.2 | 42.4% | Rio Ave Over 4.2 | 27.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.0% | Over 3.5 | 69.4% | Over 4.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santa Clara | 35.9% | Most: Rio Ave | 45.3% | ||
| Santa Clara Over 1.8 | 65.3% | Rio Ave Over 1.8 | 71.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 43.7% |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 23.7% |
| Santa Clara win to nil | 32.7% |
| Rio Ave win to nil | 12.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 50.9% | draw | 28.1% | away | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.1% | 12 | 71.9% | X2 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 70.9% | away | 29.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 43.5% | no | 56.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 43.8% | away | 23.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.8% | away | 12.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 25.2% | home_by_2 | 15.7% | home_by_3plus | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.2% | away_by_2 | 5.2% | away_by_3plus | 1.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.0% | 0-1 | 8.0% | 0-2 | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 14.3% | 1-1 | 13.0% | 1-2 | 5.1% |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.8% | 2-1 | 8.9% | 2-2 | 3.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.0% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 5.2% | 3-1 | 4.3% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.0% | under_0.5 | 11.0% | over_1.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 33.3% | over_2.5 | 39.5% | under_2.5 | 60.5% |
| over_3.5 | 19.4% | under_3.5 | 80.6% | over_4.5 | 8.0% |
| under_4.5 | 92.0% | over_5.5 | 2.8% | under_5.5 | 97.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.3% | under_0.5 | 23.7% | over_1.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.8% | over_2.5 | 17.6% | under_2.5 | 82.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 56.2% | under_0.5 | 43.8% | over_1.5 | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.9% | over_2.5 | 5.1% | under_2.5 | 94.9% |
most
| home | 50.9% | draw | 28.1% | away | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.1% | away_+2.5 | 89.9% | home_-1.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.2% | home_-0.5 | 50.9% | away_+0.5 | 49.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.1% | away_-0.5 | 20.9% | home_+1.5 | 93.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.8% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.0% | exact_1 | 22.3% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.1% | exact_4 | 11.4% | exact_5 | 5.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.1% | draw | 41.8% | away | 16.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.1% | over_1.5 | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.6% | over_2.5 | 10.7% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
btts
| yes | 16.5% | no | 83.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.1% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.9% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.5% | draw | 43.7% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.5% | under_0.5 | 33.6% | over_1.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.2% | over_2.5 | 9.8% | under_2.5 | 90.2% |
btts
| yes | 16.8% | no | 83.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 36.1% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.2% | D/D | 18.3% | D/A | 8.3% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 3.7% | A/A | 10.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.0% | under_7.5 | 33.0% | over_8.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 44.5% | over_9.5 | 44.1% | under_9.5 | 55.9% |
| over_10.5 | 33.6% | under_10.5 | 66.4% | over_11.5 | 24.6% |
| under_11.5 | 75.4% | over_12.5 | 17.3% | under_12.5 | 82.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.0% | under_3.5 | 32.0% | over_4.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.9% | over_5.5 | 39.0% | under_5.5 | 61.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.4% | under_3.5 | 43.6% | over_4.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.6% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 10.3% | away | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.2% | away_+3.5 | 75.8% | home_-1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% | away_+0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.4% | away_-0.5 | 36.6% | home_+1.5 | 72.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.2% | home_+3.5 | 87.0% | away_-3.5 | 13.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 50.9% | under_22.5 | 49.1% | over_24.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 61.2% | over_26.5 | 28.0% | under_26.5 | 72.0% |
| over_28.5 | 19.1% | under_28.5 | 81.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.5% | under_10.5 | 32.6% | over_12.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.8% | over_14.5 | 35.8% | under_14.5 | 64.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 41.4% | under_10.5 | 58.6% | over_12.5 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 74.7% | over_14.5 | 14.0% | under_14.5 | 86.0% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.5% | away_+4.5 | 59.5% | home_-2.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.9% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.1% | away_-0.5 | 28.9% | home_+2.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.0% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.1% | under_6.5 | 35.9% | over_7.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.3% | over_8.5 | 38.0% | under_8.5 | 62.0% |
| over_9.5 | 26.9% | under_9.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.6% | over_5.5 | 27.3% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.2% | under_3.5 | 54.8% | over_4.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.2% | over_5.5 | 15.5% | under_5.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 13.2% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.1% | away_+2.5 | 72.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.2% | home_+0.5 | 67.0% | away_-0.5 | 33.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.9% | away_-2.5 | 13.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.0% | under_2.5 | 15.0% | over_3.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 30.6% | over_4.5 | 51.0% | under_4.5 | 49.0% |
| over_5.5 | 33.6% | under_5.5 | 66.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.3% | under_1.5 | 34.7% | over_2.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.2% | under_1.5 | 28.8% | over_2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.5% |
most
| home | 35.9% | draw | 18.8% | away | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.2% | away_+1.5 | 79.8% | home_-0.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.1% | home_+0.5 | 54.7% | away_-0.5 | 45.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.3% | away_-1.5 | 27.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.8% | under_20.5 | 14.2% | over_22.5 | 76.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.4% | over_24.5 | 65.2% | under_24.5 | 34.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 85.4% | under_9.5 | 14.6% | over_11.5 | 71.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.6% | over_13.5 | 54.4% | under_13.5 | 45.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.7% | under_9.5 | 22.3% | over_11.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.5% | over_13.5 | 42.2% | under_13.5 | 57.8% |
most
| home | 55.4% | draw | 6.3% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 36.4% | away_+3.5 | 63.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.6% | home_+2.5 | 73.2% | away_-2.5 | 26.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.5% | no | 82.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.7% | no | 87.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Santa Clara predictions · Rio Ave predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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