Le Havre vs Brest: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 1

Le Havre

DLWLD

Full time1-2Sat, 5 Sep 202619:45UK19°C · Clearing

Brest

LLDDD

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Le Havre or draw

62%

Draw or Brest

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Le Havre 1-2 Brest

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card

8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Le Havre at 37.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 51.3% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.2% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.1% and it missed (10 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.7% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.6% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 60.9% and it landed (13 shots on target). We called No at 81.9% and it missed.

Match data	Le Havre	Brest
Goals, 1st half	0	1
Goals, 2nd half	1	1
Shots	18	19
Shots, 1st half	9	8
Shots, 2nd half	9	11
Shots on target	4	9
Corners	5	5
Yellow cards	1	1
Red cards	1	0
Fouls	15	18
Expected goals (xG)	1.61	3.01

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

Le HavreWin probability

37.8%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.35

Le Havre or draw64.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.54

Draw or Brest62.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Le Havre at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. • For shots markets, Mbwana Samatta is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. • Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Le Havre against W0 D3 L3 for Brest. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Le Havre, 0 draws and 4 for Brest, averaging 1.4 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09

Over 10.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65

Brest win35.1%@ 2.85

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.7%@ 1.70

Both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86

Under 2.5 goals51.3%@ 1.95

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.65

1-0 correct score9.1%@ 11.04

0-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Le Havre

37.8%

Draw

27.1%

Brest

35.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.7%

Good chance

Over 9.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.6%

Low chance

Most cornersLe Havre57.3%Brest32.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.6%

Good chance

Over 26.538.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.3%2.548.7%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.574.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Le HavreDLWLD

BrestLLDDD

Last 5 meetings: Le Havre 1 · 0 draws · Brest 4 · 1.4 goals/game.

2026-03-08Brest 2-0 Le Havre

2025-10-29Le Havre 1-0 Brest

2025-01-26Le Havre 0-1 Brest

2024-10-06Brest 2-0 Le Havre

2024-03-03Brest 1-0 Le Havre

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Le Havre

Brest

League position#14 of 18#11 of 18

Record W-D-L0-1-10-2-0

Current streakD1D2

Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Mbwana SamattaLe Havre · key player

To score10.0%

@ 10.00

1+ on target44.3%

@ 2.26

2+ shots49.3%

@ 2.03

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.16

Pathé MboupBrest · key player

To score3.5%

@ 28.57

1+ on target33.0%

@ 3.03

2+ shots25.3%

@ 3.95

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.08

Fodé DoucouréLe Havre · in form

To score10.3%

@ 9.71

1+ on target25.0%

@ 4.00

2+ shots18.7%

@ 5.35

Shots/90 1.45SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.2

Ludovic AjorqueBrest · in form

To score29.0%

@ 3.45

1+ on target51.0%

@ 1.96

2+ shots54.5%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 1.92SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.36

Amir RichardsonLe Havre · in form

To score3.1%

@ 32.26

1+ on target15.4%

@ 6.49

2+ shots8.0%

@ 12.50

Shots/90 1.03SoT/90 0.37Goals/90 0.07

Kamory DoumbiaBrest · in form

To score16.2%

@ 6.17

1+ on target35.9%

@ 2.79

2+ shots36.1%

@ 2.77

Shots/90 1.94SoT/90 0.68Goals/90 0.27

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Le Havre win2.69

Draw3.64

Brest win2.83

Both teams to score1.86

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.35

Over 2.5 goals2.05

Over 3.5 goals3.72

Le Havre most2.69

Brest most2.83

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38

Over 8.5 corners1.64

Over 9.5 corners2.04

Over 10.5 corners2.68

Le Havre most1.74

Brest most3.11

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42

Over 3.5 cards2.03

Over 4.5 cards3.32

Over 5.5 cards6.20

Le Havre most2.80

Brest most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37

Over 7.5 SoT1.64

Over 8.5 SoT2.07

Over 9.5 SoT2.75

Le Havre most1.87

Brest most2.94

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58

Over 24.5 shots1.97

Over 26.5 shots2.61

Over 28.5 shots3.65

Le Havre most1.67

Brest most2.93

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23

Over 22.5 fouls1.44

Over 24.5 fouls1.78

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	73.0%	Over 7.5	60.9%	Over 8.5	48.3%	Over 9.5	36.4%
Most: Le Havre	53.5%	Most: Brest	34.1%
Le Havre Over 4.2	49.3%	Brest Over 4.2	35.2%

Cards

Over 2.5	70.4%	Over 3.5	49.3%	Over 4.5	30.1%
Most: Le Havre	35.7%	Most: Brest	42.6%
Le Havre Over 1.8	51.7%	Brest Over 1.8	56.8%

Le Havre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Mbwana Samatta	2.52	0.89	0.16	44.3%	49.3%	10.0%
Fodé Doucouré	1.45	0.53	0.2	25.0%	18.7%	10.3%
Amir Richardson	1.03	0.37	0.07	15.4%	8.0%	3.1%
Rassoul Ndiaye	1.29	0.32	0.1	19.7%	22.2%	6.6%
Timothee Pembele	0.67	0.28	0.06	12.9%	4.4%	2.9%

Brest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Pathé Mboup	2.2	0.91	0.08	33.0%	25.3%	3.5%
Ludovic Ajorque	1.92	0.75	0.36	51.0%	54.5%	29.0%
Kamory Doumbia	1.94	0.68	0.27	35.9%	36.1%	16.2%
Mama Baldé	3.08	0.57	0.19	22.6%	40.3%	8.2%
Lucas Tousart	1.22	0.54	0.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Le Havre clean sheet	27.5%
Brest clean sheet	26.4%
Le Havre win to nil	19.6%
Brest win to nil	18.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	37.2%	draw	27.5%	away	35.4%

double_chance

1X	64.6%	12	72.5%	X2	62.8%

dnb

home	51.2%	away	48.8%

btts

yes	53.9%	no	46.1%

clean_sheet

home	27.6%	away	26.5%

win_to_nil

home	19.7%	away	18.6%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.1%	home_by_2	11.0%	home_by_3plus	6.1%
away_by_1	19.5%	away_by_2	10.4%	away_by_3plus	5.5%

correct_score

0-0	7.9%	0-1	8.8%	0-2	6.1%
0-3	2.6%	0-4	0.9%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	9.1%	1-1	13.1%	1-2	8.0%
1-3	3.5%	1-4	1.1%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.5%	2-1	8.3%	2-2	5.3%
2-3	2.3%	2-4	0.8%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	2.9%	3-1	3.7%	3-2	2.4%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.0%	4-1	1.2%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.5%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.1%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.1%	under_0.5	7.9%	over_1.5	74.3%
under_1.5	25.7%	over_2.5	48.7%	under_2.5	51.3%
over_3.5	26.9%	under_3.5	73.1%	over_4.5	12.6%
under_4.5	87.4%	over_5.5	5.1%	under_5.5	94.9%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	73.5%	under_0.5	26.5%	over_1.5	38.4%
under_1.5	61.6%	over_2.5	15.0%	under_2.5	85.0%

team_away

over_0.5	72.5%	under_0.5	27.6%	over_1.5	37.0%
under_1.5	63.0%	over_2.5	14.2%	under_2.5	85.8%

most

home	37.2%	draw	27.5%	away	35.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.1%	away_+2.5	93.9%	home_-1.5	17.1%
away_+1.5	82.9%	home_-0.5	37.2%	away_+0.5	62.8%
home_+0.5	64.6%	away_-0.5	35.4%	home_+1.5	84.1%
away_-1.5	15.9%	home_+2.5	94.5%	away_-2.5	5.5%

total_exact

exact_0	7.9%	exact_1	17.8%	exact_2	25.6%
exact_3	21.8%	exact_4	14.3%	exact_5	7.5%
exact_6	3.3%	exact_7plus	1.8%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.8%	draw	39.0%	away	33.3%

total

over_0.5	74.3%	under_0.5	25.7%	over_1.5	39.3%
under_1.5	60.7%	over_2.5	15.6%	under_2.5	84.4%

btts

yes	24.2%	no	75.8%

total_exact

exact_0	25.7%	exact_1	34.9%	exact_2	23.7%
exact_3	10.7%	exact_4plus	4.9%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.9%	draw	40.8%	away	24.3%

total

over_0.5	71.2%	under_0.5	28.8%	over_1.5	35.4%
under_1.5	64.6%	over_2.5	13.1%	under_2.5	87.0%

btts

yes	21.1%	no	78.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	22.5%	H/D	4.1%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	13.6%	D/D	15.9%	D/A	9.5%
A/H	2.6%	A/D	6.4%	A/A	24.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	72.7%	under_7.5	27.3%	over_8.5	61.1%
under_8.5	38.9%	over_9.5	48.9%	under_9.5	51.1%
over_10.5	37.3%	under_10.5	62.7%	over_11.5	27.1%
under_11.5	72.9%	over_12.5	18.7%	under_12.5	81.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.9%	under_3.5	25.1%	over_4.5	60.0%
under_4.5	40.0%	over_5.5	44.8%	under_5.5	55.2%

team_away

over_3.5	58.1%	under_3.5	41.9%	over_4.5	40.7%
under_4.5	59.3%	over_5.5	26.2%	under_5.5	73.8%

most

home	57.4%	draw	10.5%	away	32.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.2%	away_+3.5	73.8%	home_-1.5	46.4%
away_+1.5	53.6%	home_-0.5	57.4%	away_+0.5	42.6%
home_+0.5	67.9%	away_-0.5	32.1%	home_+1.5	77.1%
away_-1.5	22.9%	home_+3.5	90.2%	away_-3.5	9.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.2%	under_22.5	36.8%	over_24.5	50.6%
under_24.5	49.4%	over_26.5	38.4%	under_26.5	61.6%
over_28.5	27.4%	under_28.5	72.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.3%	under_10.5	27.7%	over_12.5	55.7%
under_12.5	44.3%	over_14.5	39.2%	under_14.5	60.8%

team_away

over_10.5	55.5%	under_10.5	44.6%	over_12.5	37.2%
under_12.5	62.8%	over_14.5	22.4%	under_14.5	77.6%

most

home	59.8%	draw	6.1%	away	34.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.7%	away_+4.5	65.3%	home_-2.5	47.1%
away_+2.5	52.9%	home_-0.5	59.8%	away_+0.5	40.2%
home_+0.5	65.9%	away_-0.5	34.1%	home_+2.5	76.7%
away_-2.5	23.3%	home_+4.5	85.3%	away_-4.5	14.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	73.0%	under_6.5	27.0%	over_7.5	60.9%
under_7.5	39.1%	over_8.5	48.3%	under_8.5	51.7%
over_9.5	36.4%	under_9.5	63.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	66.4%	under_3.5	33.6%	over_4.5	49.3%
under_4.5	50.7%	over_5.5	33.6%	under_5.5	66.4%

team_away

over_3.5	53.2%	under_3.5	46.8%	over_4.5	35.3%
under_4.5	64.8%	over_5.5	21.2%	under_5.5	78.8%

most

home	53.5%	draw	12.5%	away	34.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	29.0%	away_+2.5	71.0%	home_-0.5	53.5%
away_+0.5	46.5%	home_+0.5	65.9%	away_-0.5	34.1%
home_+2.5	85.4%	away_-2.5	14.6%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	70.4%	under_2.5	29.6%	over_3.5	49.3%
under_3.5	50.7%	over_4.5	30.1%	under_4.5	69.9%
over_5.5	16.1%	under_5.5	83.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	51.7%	under_1.5	48.3%	over_2.5	25.2%
under_2.5	74.8%

team_away

over_1.5	56.8%	under_1.5	43.2%	over_2.5	29.8%
under_2.5	70.2%

most

home	35.7%	draw	21.7%	away	42.6%

handicap

home_-1.5	18.1%	away_+1.5	81.9%	home_-0.5	35.7%
away_+0.5	64.3%	home_+0.5	57.4%	away_-0.5	42.6%
home_+1.5	76.7%	away_-1.5	23.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	81.0%	under_20.5	19.0%	over_22.5	69.5%
under_22.5	30.5%	over_24.5	56.1%	under_24.5	43.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.8%	under_9.5	23.2%	over_11.5	58.2%
under_11.5	41.8%	over_13.5	38.8%	under_13.5	61.2%

team_away

over_9.5	80.0%	under_9.5	20.0%	over_11.5	62.5%
under_11.5	37.5%	over_13.5	43.4%	under_13.5	56.7%

most

home	43.3%	draw	6.9%	away	49.8%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.5%	away_+3.5	75.5%	home_-0.5	43.3%
away_+0.5	56.7%	home_+2.5	63.8%	away_-2.5	36.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.1%	no	81.9%

home

yes	8.7%	no	91.3%

away

yes	10.3%	no	89.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Le Havre predictions · Brest predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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