Malaga vs Levante prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Malaga vs Levante: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

La Liga
Malaga

LLLDL

Full time0-0Sun, 6 Sep 202617:30UK30°C · Cloudy
Levante

WLLDW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Malaga or draw

62%

Draw or Levante

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Malaga 0-0 Levante
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Malaga at 38.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.7% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.3% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.5% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 57.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 74.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 74.2% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.5% and it landed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.1% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.2% and it landed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.6% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 81.8% and it landed.

Match data Malaga Levante
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 10 11
Shots, 1st half 7 5
Shots, 2nd half 3 6
Shots on target 3 3
Corners 6 4
Yellow cards 4 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 11
Expected goals (xG) 1.73 1.19

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MalagaWin probability
38.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Malaga or draw64.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Draw or Levante61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Malaga at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 6 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 30 degrees of heat. Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Malaga against W3 D1 L2 for Levante. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Malaga, 1 draws and 2 for Levante at 2.2 goals per match. Juan Cruz drives the home shot volume, 0.5 on target per 90. As a promoted side, Malaga carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.9%@ 2.57
Levante win35.6%@ 2.81
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.1%@ 1.66
Both teams to score57.1%@ 1.75
Over 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.96
2-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.86
1-2 correct score8.2%@ 12.17

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Malaga

38.3%

Draw

26.1%

Levante

35.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersMalaga60.4%Levante29.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.2%2.552.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.2%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MalagaLLLDL
LevanteWLLDW

Last 5 meetings: Malaga 2 · 1 draws · Levante 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

2018-04-19Levante 1-0 Malaga
2017-12-01Malaga 0-0 Levante
2016-05-02Malaga 3-1 Levante
2015-12-30Levante 0-1 Malaga
2015-02-07Levante 4-1 Malaga

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MalagaLevante
League position#20 of 20#9 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-21-1-1
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Juan CruzMalaga · key player
To score8.5%

@ 11.76

1+ on target28.2%

@ 3.55

2+ shots24.1%

@ 4.15

Shots/90 1.27SoT/90 0.45Goals/90 0.12
Etta EyongLevante · key player
To score18.3%

@ 5.46

1+ on target49.1%

@ 2.04

2+ shots39.0%

@ 2.56

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.42
Pablo MartínezMalaga · in form
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target16.1%

@ 6.21

2+ shots26.3%

@ 3.80

Shots/90 1.31SoT/90 0.23Goals/90 0.05
Paco CortésLevante · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target30.2%

@ 3.31

2+ shots23.8%

@ 4.20

Shots/90 2.3SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0
Roger BruguéLevante · in form
To score13.5%

@ 7.41

1+ on target40.6%

@ 2.46

2+ shots49.6%

@ 2.02

Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.23

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Malaga win2.67
Draw3.77
Levante win2.78
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Malaga most2.67
Levante most2.78

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.58
Malaga most1.65
Levante most3.41

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.61
Over 4.5 cards2.31
Over 5.5 cards3.70
Malaga most2.65
Levante most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.64
Malaga most1.59
Levante most3.90

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.87
Malaga most1.48
Levante most3.75

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.06
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.6% Over 7.5 62.6% Over 8.5 50.0% Over 9.5 37.8%
Most: Malaga 62.8% Most: Levante 25.6%
Malaga Over 4.2 56.8% Levante Over 4.2 29.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.8% Over 3.5 62.1% Over 4.5 43.3%
Most: Malaga 37.7% Most: Levante 42.9%
Malaga Over 1.8 61.0% Levante Over 1.8 64.5%

Malaga: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Juan Cruz 1.27 0.45 0.12 28.2% 24.1% 8.5%
Pablo Martínez 1.31 0.23 0.05 16.1% 26.3% 3.7%

Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Etta Eyong 2.8 1.4 0.42 49.1% 39.0% 18.3%
Paco Cortés 2.3 0.89 0 30.2% 23.8% 0.0%
Roger Brugué 2.65 0.83 0.23 40.6% 49.6% 13.5%
Thiago Fernández 1.42 0.67 0 34.4% 22.5% 0.0%
Iván Romero 2.38 0.63 0.24 40.3% 57.9% 17.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Malaga clean sheet 25.2%
Levante clean sheet 24.3%
Malaga win to nil 18.4%
Levante win to nil 17.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.5% draw 26.5% away 35.9%
double_chance
1X 64.1% 12 73.5% X2 62.5%
dnb
home 51.1% away 48.9%
btts
yes 57.1% no 42.9%
clean_sheet
home 25.3% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 18.5% away 17.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.8% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 6.6%
away_by_1 19.2% away_by_2 10.7% away_by_3plus 6.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 7.9% 0-2 5.8%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 8.1% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 8.2%
1-3 3.8% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.1% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.7% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.3%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.7% under_2.5 47.3%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
team_away
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
most
home 37.5% draw 26.5% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.6% away_+2.5 93.4% home_-1.5 17.8%
away_+1.5 82.2% home_-0.5 37.5% away_+0.5 62.5%
home_+0.5 64.1% away_-0.5 35.9% home_+1.5 83.3%
away_-1.5 16.7% home_+2.5 94.0% away_-2.5 6.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 38.5% away 27.4%
total
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 24.7% no 75.3%
total_exact
exact_0 25.1% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.0% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.4% draw 38.9% away 34.6%
total
over_0.5 74.2% under_0.5 25.8% over_1.5 39.2%
under_1.5 60.8% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.5%
btts
yes 24.0% no 76.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.0% H/D 6.4% H/A 2.7%
D/H 10.2% D/D 15.0% D/A 13.3%
A/H 1.5% A/D 4.3% A/A 21.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.1% under_7.5 25.9% over_8.5 62.7%
under_8.5 37.3% over_9.5 50.5% under_9.5 49.5%
over_10.5 38.7% under_10.5 61.3% over_11.5 28.2%
under_11.5 71.8% over_12.5 19.6% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.5% under_3.5 22.5% over_4.5 63.1%
under_4.5 36.9% over_5.5 48.1% under_5.5 51.9%
team_away
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 39.2%
under_4.5 60.8% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 60.5% draw 10.2% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.9% away_+3.5 71.1% home_-1.5 49.6%
away_+1.5 50.4% home_-0.5 60.5% away_+0.5 39.5%
home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3% home_+1.5 79.4%
away_-1.5 20.6% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.5% under_22.5 38.5% over_24.5 48.9%
under_24.5 51.2% over_26.5 36.6% under_26.5 63.4%
over_28.5 25.8% under_28.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.7% under_10.5 24.3% over_12.5 60.0%
under_12.5 40.0% over_14.5 43.6% under_14.5 56.4%
team_away
over_10.5 47.8% under_10.5 52.3% over_12.5 30.0%
under_12.5 70.0% over_14.5 16.8% under_14.5 83.2%
most
home 67.8% draw 5.6% away 26.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.7% away_+4.5 57.3% home_-2.5 55.5%
away_+2.5 44.5% home_-0.5 67.8% away_+0.5 32.3%
home_+0.5 73.3% away_-0.5 26.7% home_+2.5 82.8%
away_-2.5 17.2% home_+4.5 89.8% away_-4.5 10.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.6% under_6.5 25.4% over_7.5 62.6%
under_7.5 37.4% over_8.5 50.0% under_8.5 50.0%
over_9.5 37.8% under_9.5 62.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 56.8%
under_4.5 43.3% over_5.5 40.7% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 47.3% under_3.5 52.7% over_4.5 29.4%
under_4.5 70.6% over_5.5 16.5% under_5.5 83.6%
most
home 62.8% draw 11.6% away 25.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.5% away_+2.5 62.5% home_-0.5 62.8%
away_+0.5 37.2% home_+0.5 74.4% away_-0.5 25.6%
home_+2.5 90.5% away_-2.5 9.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.8% under_2.5 20.2% over_3.5 62.1%
under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 43.3% under_4.5 56.7%
over_5.5 27.1% under_5.5 73.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.0% under_1.5 39.0% over_2.5 34.7%
under_2.5 65.3%
team_away
over_1.5 64.5% under_1.5 35.5% over_2.5 38.5%
under_2.5 61.5%
most
home 37.7% draw 19.5% away 42.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.2% away_+1.5 78.8% home_-0.5 37.7%
away_+0.5 62.3% home_+0.5 57.1% away_-0.5 42.9%
home_+1.5 74.7% away_-1.5 25.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.4% under_20.5 24.6% over_22.5 62.5%
under_22.5 37.5% over_24.5 48.5% under_24.5 51.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.8% under_9.5 25.3% over_11.5 55.7%
under_11.5 44.3% over_13.5 36.5% under_13.5 63.5%
team_away
over_9.5 73.8% under_9.5 26.3% over_11.5 54.4%
under_11.5 45.6% over_13.5 35.3% under_13.5 64.8%
most
home 47.4% draw 7.1% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-0.5 47.4%
away_+0.5 52.6% home_+2.5 67.9% away_-2.5 32.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.3% no 81.8%
home
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
away
yes 7.4% no 92.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Malaga predictions · Levante predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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