Vallecano vs Santander: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

La Liga

Vallecano

WWLDL

Full time3-2Sat, 5 Sep 202617:30UK35°C · Cloudy

Santander

DLW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Vallecano or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Vallecano 3-2 Santander

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card

10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Vallecano at 59.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 51.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.0% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 50.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.7% and it landed (15 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 66.9% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.6% and it landed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.5% and it landed (14 shots on target). We called No at 83.0% and it missed.

Match data	Vallecano	Santander
Goals, 1st half	2	2
Goals, 2nd half	1	0
Shots	16	9
Shots, 1st half	7	5
Shots, 2nd half	9	4
Shots on target	10	4
Corners	9	6
Yellow cards	3	2
Red cards	2	0
Fouls	15	12
Expected goals (xG)	1.19	0.63

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

VallecanoWin probability

59.3%

Top 3 convictions

Vallecano or draw83.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.20

Over 1.5 goals75.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.32

Over 8.5 corners63.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

Vallecano go into this La Liga meeting with Santander on 5 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 59%. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • For shots markets, Sergio Camello is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. • The forecast adds a wrinkle: 35 degrees of heat. The run in: Vallecano arrive W2 D2 L2, Santander W1 D1 L1. Fatigue may matter, with Vallecano 3 days shorter on recovery than Santander. Santander are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35

Draw or Santander40.7%@ 2.45

Over 11.5 corners33.1%@ 3.02

Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners52.9%@ 1.89

Over 2.5 goals51.0%@ 1.96

Both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.73

1-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.83

2-0 correct score10.6%@ 9.41

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Vallecano

59.3%

Draw

23.8%

Santander

16.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes50.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.9%

Good chance

Over 10.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersVallecano58.0%Santander31.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.6%

Good chance

Over 26.538.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.9%2.551.0%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.9%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

VallecanoWWLDL

SantanderDLW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Vallecano

Santander

League position#18 of 20#10 of 20

Record W-D-L0-1-21-1-1

Current streakL1W1

Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Sergio CamelloVallecano · key player

To score20.5%

@ 4.88

1+ on target44.7%

@ 2.24

2+ shots42.7%

@ 2.34

Shots/90 2.92SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.46

Iván MartínSantander · key player

To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target10.1%

@ 9.90

2+ shots5.4%

@ 18.52

Shots/90 0.49SoT/90 0.14Goals/90 0

AlemãoVallecano · in form

To score13.2%

@ 7.58

1+ on target39.4%

@ 2.54

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.11SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.31

Matteo PratiSantander · in form

To score2.4%

@ 41.67

1+ on target2.4%

@ 41.67

2+ shots19.6%

@ 5.10

Shots/90 1.36SoT/90 0.04Goals/90 0.04

Randy NtekaVallecano · in form

To score15.5%

@ 6.45

1+ on target32.1%

@ 3.12

2+ shots21.3%

@ 4.69

Shots/90 1.89SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.37

Julen AgirrezabalaSantander · in form

To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target0.0%

@ ·

2+ shots0.0%

@ ·

Shots/90 0SoT/90 0Goals/90 0

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Vallecano win1.74

Draw4.15

Santander win5.42

Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08

Over 1.5 goals1.32

Over 2.5 goals1.96

Over 3.5 goals3.45

Vallecano most1.74

Santander most5.42

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29

Over 8.5 corners1.50

Over 9.5 corners1.83

Over 10.5 corners2.33

Vallecano most1.72

Santander most3.15

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20

Over 3.5 cards1.50

Over 4.5 cards2.06

Over 5.5 cards3.14

Vallecano most2.68

Santander most2.27

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34

Over 7.5 SoT1.60

Over 8.5 SoT2.01

Over 9.5 SoT2.65

Vallecano most1.67

Santander most3.56

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58

Over 24.5 shots1.97

Over 26.5 shots2.61

Over 28.5 shots3.65

Vallecano most1.52

Santander most3.52

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.24

Over 22.5 fouls1.44

Over 24.5 fouls1.79

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.5%	Over 7.5	62.5%	Over 8.5	49.8%	Over 9.5	37.7%
Most: Vallecano	60.0%	Most: Santander	28.1%
Vallecano Over 4.2	54.8%	Santander Over 4.2	31.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	83.1%	Over 3.5	66.9%	Over 4.5	48.6%
Most: Vallecano	37.3%	Most: Santander	44.0%
Vallecano Over 1.8	64.0%	Santander Over 1.8	68.3%

Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Sergio Camello	2.92	1.19	0.46	44.7%	42.7%	20.5%
Alemão	2.11	1.1	0.31	39.4%	25.0%	13.2%
Randy Nteka	1.89	0.85	0.37	32.1%	21.3%	15.5%
Álvaro García	2.2	0.84	0.15	47.8%	50.8%	11.0%
Jorge De Frutos	2.03	0.78	0.27	46.1%	47.7%	19.2%

Santander: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Iván Martín	0.49	0.14	0	10.1%	5.4%	0.0%
Matteo Prati	1.36	0.04	0.04	2.4%	19.6%	2.4%
Julen Agirrezabala	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Vallecano clean sheet	39.4%
Santander clean sheet	16.7%
Vallecano win to nil	32.2%
Santander win to nil	9.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	57.5%	draw	24.1%	away	18.5%

double_chance

1X	81.5%	12	75.9%	X2	42.5%

dnb

home	75.7%	away	24.3%

btts

yes	50.7%	no	49.3%

clean_sheet

home	39.9%	away	16.7%

win_to_nil

home	32.7%	away	9.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	24.2%	home_by_2	17.9%	home_by_3plus	15.4%
away_by_1	12.2%	away_by_2	4.7%	away_by_3plus	1.6%

correct_score

0-0	7.2%	0-1	5.6%	0-2	2.8%
0-3	0.9%	0-4	0.2%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	11.3%	1-1	11.5%	1-2	5.0%
1-3	1.5%	1-4	0.4%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.6%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.5%
2-3	1.4%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	6.4%	3-1	5.9%	3-2	2.7%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.9%	4-1	2.7%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.0%	5-1	1.0%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.1%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.5%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.8%	under_0.5	7.2%	over_1.5	75.9%
under_1.5	24.1%	over_2.5	51.0%	under_2.5	49.0%
over_3.5	29.0%	under_3.5	71.0%	over_4.5	14.0%
under_4.5	86.0%	over_5.5	5.9%	under_5.5	94.1%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	83.4%	under_0.5	16.7%	over_1.5	53.6%
under_1.5	46.4%	over_2.5	26.9%	under_2.5	73.1%

team_away

over_0.5	60.1%	under_0.5	39.9%	over_1.5	23.5%
under_1.5	76.5%	over_2.5	6.6%	under_2.5	93.4%

most

home	57.5%	draw	24.1%	away	18.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	15.4%	away_+2.5	84.6%	home_-1.5	33.3%
away_+1.5	66.8%	home_-0.5	57.5%	away_+0.5	42.5%
home_+0.5	81.6%	away_-0.5	18.5%	home_+1.5	93.7%
away_-1.5	6.3%	home_+2.5	98.4%	away_-2.5	1.6%

total_exact

exact_0	7.2%	exact_1	16.9%	exact_2	24.9%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	15.0%	exact_5	8.2%
exact_6	3.7%	exact_7plus	2.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	28.6%	draw	38.8%	away	32.7%

total

over_0.5	74.6%	under_0.5	25.4%	over_1.5	39.8%
under_1.5	60.2%	over_2.5	15.9%	under_2.5	84.1%

btts

yes	24.5%	no	75.5%

total_exact

exact_0	25.4%	exact_1	34.8%	exact_2	23.8%
exact_3	10.9%	exact_4plus	5.0%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	42.1%	draw	39.2%	away	18.7%

total

over_0.5	72.2%	under_0.5	27.8%	over_1.5	36.6%
under_1.5	63.4%	over_2.5	13.8%	under_2.5	86.2%

btts

yes	20.4%	no	79.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	24.4%	H/D	3.3%	H/A	0.8%
D/H	16.3%	D/D	15.2%	D/A	7.3%
A/H	3.6%	A/D	7.2%	A/A	21.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	77.3%	under_7.5	22.7%	over_8.5	66.5%
under_8.5	33.5%	over_9.5	54.7%	under_9.5	45.3%
over_10.5	42.9%	under_10.5	57.1%	over_11.5	32.1%
under_11.5	67.9%	over_12.5	22.9%	under_12.5	77.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	78.1%	under_3.5	21.9%	over_4.5	64.1%
under_4.5	35.9%	over_5.5	49.1%	under_5.5	50.9%

team_away

over_3.5	61.4%	under_3.5	38.6%	over_4.5	44.1%
under_4.5	55.9%	over_5.5	29.2%	under_5.5	70.8%

most

home	58.1%	draw	10.2%	away	31.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.5%	away_+3.5	72.5%	home_-1.5	47.4%
away_+1.5	52.6%	home_-0.5	58.1%	away_+0.5	41.9%
home_+0.5	68.3%	away_-0.5	31.7%	home_+1.5	77.2%
away_-1.5	22.8%	home_+3.5	90.0%	away_-3.5	10.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.2%	under_22.5	36.8%	over_24.5	50.6%
under_24.5	49.4%	over_26.5	38.4%	under_26.5	61.6%
over_28.5	27.4%	under_28.5	72.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.6%	under_10.5	24.4%	over_12.5	59.9%
under_12.5	40.1%	over_14.5	43.5%	under_14.5	56.5%

team_away

over_10.5	50.6%	under_10.5	49.4%	over_12.5	32.6%
under_12.5	67.4%	over_14.5	18.8%	under_14.5	81.2%

most

home	65.9%	draw	5.7%	away	28.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	40.9%	away_+4.5	59.1%	home_-2.5	53.6%
away_+2.5	46.4%	home_-0.5	65.9%	away_+0.5	34.1%
home_+0.5	71.6%	away_-0.5	28.4%	home_+2.5	81.4%
away_-2.5	18.6%	home_+4.5	88.7%	away_-4.5	11.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.5%	under_6.5	25.5%	over_7.5	62.5%
under_7.5	37.5%	over_8.5	49.8%	under_8.5	50.2%
over_9.5	37.7%	under_9.5	62.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	71.4%	under_3.5	28.6%	over_4.5	54.8%
under_4.5	45.2%	over_5.5	38.6%	under_5.5	61.4%

team_away

over_3.5	49.5%	under_3.5	50.5%	over_4.5	31.5%
under_4.5	68.5%	over_5.5	18.0%	under_5.5	82.0%

most

home	60.0%	draw	11.9%	away	28.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	34.7%	away_+2.5	65.3%	home_-0.5	60.0%
away_+0.5	40.0%	home_+0.5	71.9%	away_-0.5	28.1%
home_+2.5	89.1%	away_-2.5	10.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	83.1%	under_2.5	17.0%	over_3.5	66.9%
under_3.5	33.1%	over_4.5	48.6%	under_4.5	51.4%
over_5.5	31.9%	under_5.5	68.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	64.0%	under_1.5	36.0%	over_2.5	37.9%
under_2.5	62.1%

team_away

over_1.5	68.3%	under_1.5	31.7%	over_2.5	42.8%
under_2.5	57.2%

most

home	37.3%	draw	18.7%	away	44.0%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.4%	away_+1.5	78.6%	home_-0.5	37.3%
away_+0.5	62.7%	home_+0.5	56.0%	away_-0.5	44.0%
home_+1.5	73.3%	away_-1.5	26.7%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	80.7%	under_20.5	19.3%	over_22.5	69.3%
under_22.5	30.8%	over_24.5	56.0%	under_24.5	44.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	80.8%	under_9.5	19.2%	over_11.5	63.8%
under_11.5	36.2%	over_13.5	44.9%	under_13.5	55.1%

team_away

over_9.5	75.3%	under_9.5	24.7%	over_11.5	56.4%
under_11.5	43.6%	over_13.5	37.2%	under_13.5	62.8%

most

home	52.0%	draw	6.8%	away	41.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	32.0%	away_+3.5	68.0%	home_-0.5	52.0%
away_+0.5	48.0%	home_+2.5	71.6%	away_-2.5	28.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	17.0%	no	83.0%

home

yes	10.4%	no	89.6%

away

yes	7.4%	no	92.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Vallecano predictions · Santander predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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