Paderborn vs Freiburg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Paderborn vs Freiburg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Paderborn

LLLLD

Full time0-1Sat, 5 Sep 202614:30UK19°C · Cloudy
Freiburg

LDLWW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Freiburg

61%

Both teams to score

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Paderborn 0-1 Freiburg
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Freiburg at 43.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 58.8% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.3% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.6% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 61.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 67.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.0% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.8% and it landed (9 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 52.1% and it missed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.5% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.0% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 88.6% and it landed.

Match data Paderborn Freiburg
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 14 16
Shots, 1st half 4 12
Shots, 2nd half 10 4
Shots on target 3 5
Corners 5 4
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 10
Expected goals (xG) 0.73 1.17

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FreiburgWin probability
43.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Freiburg68.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Both teams to score61.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Freiburg: 43% is the model's line for this Bundesliga meeting on 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. • Form guide over the last six: Paderborn W0 D2 L4, Freiburg W3 D1 L2. • For shots markets, Rayan Philippe is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, Paderborn carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Paderborn, 1 draws and 1 for Freiburg at 2.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.2%@ 2.12
Freiburg win43.4%@ 2.30
Over 10.5 corners37.1%@ 2.70
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals58.8%@ 1.70
Over 8.5 corners58.0%@ 1.72
Paderborn or draw56.6%@ 1.77
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.71
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.14
2-1 correct score7.7%@ 13.02

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paderborn

31.9%

Draw

24.7%

Freiburg

43.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.3%

High probability

Over 2.558.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.4%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.0%

Good chance

Over 9.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.1%

Low chance

Most cornersPaderborn58.3%Freiburg31.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.5%

Good chance

Over 26.545.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.3%2.558.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

PaderbornLLLLD
FreiburgLDLWW

Last 4 meetings: Paderborn 2 · 1 draws · Freiburg 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2020-01-25Freiburg 0-2 Paderborn
2019-08-24Paderborn 1-3 Freiburg
2015-05-02Freiburg 1-2 Paderborn
2014-12-06Paderborn 1-1 Freiburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PaderbornFreiburg
League position#11 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-01-0-0
Current streakD1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Rayan PhilippePaderborn · key player
To score15.3%

@ 6.54

1+ on target43.3%

@ 2.31

2+ shots39.7%

@ 2.52

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.34
Igor MatanovicFreiburg · key player
To score24.3%

@ 4.12

1+ on target42.5%

@ 2.35

2+ shots43.1%

@ 2.32

Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.61
Marvin PieringerPaderborn · in form
To score17.5%

@ 5.71

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots47.7%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.09SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.25
Derry ScherhantFreiburg · in form
To score14.2%

@ 7.04

1+ on target34.6%

@ 2.89

2+ shots35.2%

@ 2.84

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.32
Vincenzo GrifoFreiburg · in form
To score20.4%

@ 4.90

1+ on target45.6%

@ 2.19

2+ shots40.7%

@ 2.46

Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.33

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paderborn win3.09
Draw4.00
Freiburg win2.34
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.70
Over 3.5 goals2.75
Paderborn most3.09
Freiburg most2.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.39
Over 8.5 corners1.66
Over 9.5 corners2.08
Over 10.5 corners2.73
Paderborn most1.71
Freiburg most3.20

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.09
Over 4.5 cards3.47
Over 5.5 cards6.58
Paderborn most2.48
Freiburg most2.66

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.74
Over 9.5 SoT2.18
Paderborn most1.67
Freiburg most3.45

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.44
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.20
Over 28.5 shots2.95
Paderborn most1.53
Freiburg most3.43

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.01
Over 22.5 fouls2.66
Over 24.5 fouls3.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.4% Over 7.5 69.0% Over 8.5 57.5% Over 9.5 45.8%
Most: Paderborn 59.9% Most: Freiburg 29.0%
Paderborn Over 4.2 59.7% Freiburg Over 4.2 37.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.2% Over 3.5 47.9% Over 4.5 28.8%
Most: Paderborn 40.4% Most: Freiburg 37.6%
Paderborn Over 1.8 54.3% Freiburg Over 1.8 52.3%

Paderborn: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rayan Philippe 2.8 1.16 0.34 43.3% 39.7% 15.3%
Marvin Pieringer 2.09 0.65 0.25 39.3% 47.7% 17.5%

Freiburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Igor Matanovic 3.21 1.21 0.61 42.5% 43.1% 24.3%
Derry Scherhant 2.6 0.89 0.32 34.6% 35.2% 14.2%
Vincenzo Grifo 2.02 0.88 0.33 45.6% 40.7% 20.4%
Yuito Suzuki 2.14 0.8 0.35 44.9% 47.3% 22.9%
Lucas Höler 1.54 0.74 0.21 40.0% 28.8% 13.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paderborn clean sheet 19.3%
Freiburg clean sheet 24.4%
Paderborn win to nil 14.0%
Freiburg win to nil 19.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.3% draw 25.0% away 42.7%
double_chance
1X 57.3% 12 75.0% X2 67.7%
dnb
home 43.1% away 56.9%
btts
yes 61.4% no 38.6%
clean_sheet
home 19.4% away 24.5%
win_to_nil
home 14.1% away 19.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.4% home_by_2 9.5% home_by_3plus 5.4%
away_by_1 20.5% away_by_2 13.0% away_by_3plus 9.2%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 7.2% 0-2 6.4%
0-3 3.5% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 6.1% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.9% 1-4 2.0% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 7.7% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 2.2% 3-1 3.6% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.3%
under_1.5 18.7% over_2.5 58.8% under_2.5 41.2%
over_3.5 36.4% under_3.5 63.6% over_4.5 19.4%
under_4.5 80.6% over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.0%
under_1.5 59.0% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
team_away
over_0.5 80.6% under_0.5 19.4% over_1.5 48.9%
under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
most
home 32.3% draw 25.0% away 42.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.4% away_+2.5 94.6% home_-1.5 14.9%
away_+1.5 85.1% home_-0.5 32.3% away_+0.5 67.7%
home_+0.5 57.3% away_-0.5 42.7% home_+1.5 77.8%
away_-1.5 22.2% home_+2.5 90.8% away_-2.5 9.2%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.4% exact_2 22.6%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.4%
exact_6 5.3% exact_7plus 3.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.9% draw 43.6% away 25.6%
total
over_0.5 67.5% under_0.5 32.5% over_1.5 31.0%
under_1.5 69.1% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
btts
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
total_exact
exact_0 32.5% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.7% draw 34.2% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 81.0% under_0.5 19.0% over_1.5 49.5%
under_1.5 50.5% over_2.5 23.3% under_2.5 76.7%
btts
yes 31.2% no 68.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.4% H/D 4.7% H/A 1.8%
D/H 17.3% D/D 14.9% D/A 11.4%
A/H 3.1% A/D 5.5% A/A 17.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.1% under_7.5 27.9% over_8.5 60.4%
under_8.5 39.6% over_9.5 48.2% under_9.5 51.8%
over_10.5 36.6% under_10.5 63.4% over_11.5 26.5%
under_11.5 73.5% over_12.5 18.2% under_12.5 81.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.0% under_3.5 25.0% over_4.5 60.2%
under_4.5 39.8% over_5.5 45.1% under_5.5 54.9%
team_away
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.4% over_4.5 39.3%
under_4.5 60.7% over_5.5 25.1% under_5.5 74.9%
most
home 58.4% draw 10.4% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.2% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-1.5 47.5%
away_+1.5 52.5% home_-0.5 58.4% away_+0.5 41.6%
home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2% home_+1.5 77.9%
away_-1.5 22.2% home_+3.5 90.6% away_-3.5 9.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.2% under_22.5 30.8% over_24.5 57.5%
under_24.5 42.5% over_26.5 45.4% under_26.5 54.6%
over_28.5 33.9% under_28.5 66.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.6% under_10.5 21.4% over_12.5 64.1%
under_12.5 35.9% over_14.5 48.3% under_14.5 51.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.6% under_10.5 44.4% over_12.5 37.8%
under_12.5 62.2% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 65.4% draw 5.5% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 53.5%
away_+2.5 46.5% home_-0.5 65.4% away_+0.5 34.6%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+2.5 80.4%
away_-2.5 19.6% home_+4.5 87.8% away_-4.5 12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.4% under_6.5 20.6% over_7.5 69.0%
under_7.5 31.0% over_8.5 57.5% under_8.5 42.5%
over_9.5 45.8% under_9.5 54.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.8% under_3.5 25.2% over_4.5 59.7%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.3% under_5.5 55.7%
team_away
over_3.5 54.8% under_3.5 45.2% over_4.5 37.1%
under_4.5 62.9% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
most
home 59.9% draw 11.2% away 29.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.3% away_+2.5 63.7% home_-0.5 59.9%
away_+0.5 40.1% home_+0.5 71.0% away_-0.5 29.0%
home_+2.5 87.7% away_-2.5 12.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.2% under_2.5 30.8% over_3.5 47.9%
under_3.5 52.1% over_4.5 28.8% under_4.5 71.2%
over_5.5 15.2% under_5.5 84.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.3% under_1.5 45.7% over_2.5 27.5%
under_2.5 72.5%
team_away
over_1.5 52.3% under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7%
under_2.5 74.3%
most
home 40.4% draw 22.0% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.4% away_+1.5 78.6% home_-0.5 40.4%
away_+0.5 59.6% home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6%
home_+1.5 80.6% away_-1.5 19.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 49.7% under_20.5 50.3% over_22.5 37.6%
under_22.5 62.4% over_24.5 27.1% under_24.5 72.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.1% under_9.5 42.9% over_11.5 40.0%
under_11.5 60.0% over_13.5 25.7% under_13.5 74.3%
team_away
over_9.5 51.5% under_9.5 48.5% over_11.5 34.4%
under_11.5 65.6% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
most
home 50.8% draw 6.4% away 42.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.2% away_+3.5 67.8% home_-0.5 50.8%
away_+0.5 49.2% home_+2.5 69.3% away_-2.5 30.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
home
yes 6.1% no 93.9%
away
yes 5.7% no 94.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paderborn predictions · Freiburg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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