Juventus vs Milan prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Juventus vs Milan: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Serie A
Juventus

WLDWW

Full time1-1Sun, 6 Sep 202619:45UK30°C · Clearing
Milan

LWLWW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Juventus or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Juventus 1-1 Milan
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Juventus at 47.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 51.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 59.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 75.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.2% and it landed (8 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.4% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.5% and it landed (17 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.6% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 90.5% and it landed.

Match data Juventus Milan
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 14 3
Shots, 1st half 6 2
Shots, 2nd half 8 1
Shots on target 5 1
Corners 7 1
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 11
Expected goals (xG) 1.69 0.09

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
JuventusWin probability
47.6%
Top 3 convictions

Juventus or draw74.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Over 1.5 goals70.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Under 2.5 goals56.3%Good chancePays @ 1.78

Model read

▾

"48% on Juventus is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Juventus: 48% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 6 September 2026. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. For shots markets, Jeremie Boga is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Form guide over the last six: Juventus W3 D2 L1, Milan W3 D0 L3. One eye on the skies, with 30 degrees of heat in the forecast. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Juventus, 4 draws and 0 for Milan, averaging 0.4 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals43.7%@ 2.29
Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Over 10.5 corners31.9%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Draw or Milan52.5%@ 1.91
Not both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Over 8.5 corners50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56
1-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.36
0-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.53

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Juventus

47.6%

Draw

26.9%

Milan

25.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.6%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.2%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.5%

Low chance

Most cornersJuventus57.8%Milan32.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.3%2.543.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

JuventusWLDWW
MilanLWLWW

Last 5 meetings: Juventus 1 · 4 draws · Milan 0 · 0.4 goals/game.

2026-04-26Milan 0-0 Juventus
2025-10-05Juventus 0-0 Milan
2025-01-18Juventus 2-0 Milan
2024-11-23Milan 0-0 Juventus
2024-04-27Juventus 0-0 Milan

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

JuventusMilan
League position#4 of 20#3 of 20
Record W-D-L2-0-02-0-0
Current streakW2W2
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Jeremie BogaJuventus · key player
To score12.8%

@ 7.81

1+ on target47.5%

@ 2.11

2+ shots38.4%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.26
Gonçalo RamosMilan · key player
To score27.4%

@ 3.65

1+ on target68.4%

@ 1.46

2+ shots68.6%

@ 1.46

Shots/90 4.53SoT/90 2.2Goals/90 0.61
Edon ZhegrovaJuventus · in form
To score9.1%

@ 10.99

1+ on target42.2%

@ 2.37

2+ shots39.3%

@ 2.54

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.21
Samuel ChukwuezeMilan · in form
To score11.7%

@ 8.55

1+ on target29.2%

@ 3.42

2+ shots32.4%

@ 3.09

Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.27
Nicolás GonzálezJuventus · in form
To score16.2%

@ 6.17

1+ on target56.2%

@ 1.78

2+ shots54.0%

@ 1.85

Shots/90 2.56SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.25
Adrien RabiotMilan · in form
To score23.2%

@ 4.31

1+ on target43.7%

@ 2.29

2+ shots47.6%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 1.7SoT/90 0.61Goals/90 0.28

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Juventus win2.17
Draw3.58
Milan win3.87
Both teams to score2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.29
Over 3.5 goals4.41
Juventus most2.17
Milan most3.87

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60
Over 8.5 corners1.94
Over 9.5 corners2.45
Over 10.5 corners3.20
Juventus most1.73
Milan most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.34
Over 5.5 cards6.10
Juventus most3.06
Milan most2.17

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56
Over 7.5 SoT1.90
Over 8.5 SoT2.42
Over 9.5 SoT3.19
Juventus most1.72
Milan most3.28

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.02
Over 26.5 shots2.64
Over 28.5 shots3.64
Juventus most1.53
Milan most3.43

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.04
Over 24.5 fouls2.81
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.2% Over 7.5 52.6% Over 8.5 41.4% Over 9.5 31.4%
Most: Juventus 58.1% Most: Milan 30.5%
Juventus Over 4.2 47.0% Milan Over 4.2 27.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.3% Over 3.5 48.6% Over 4.5 30.0%
Most: Juventus 32.7% Most: Milan 46.1%
Juventus Over 1.8 48.2% Milan Over 1.8 58.1%

Juventus: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Jeremie Boga 2.52 1.22 0.26 47.5% 38.4% 12.8%
Edon Zhegrova 2.99 1.21 0.21 42.2% 39.3% 9.1%
Nicolás González 2.56 1.17 0.25 56.2% 54.0% 16.2%
Kenan Yildiz 2.72 1.08 0.3 58.8% 65.3% 21.8%
Jonathan Christian David 2.41 1.04 0.44 53.1% 52.4% 27.4%

Milan: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gonçalo Ramos 4.53 2.2 0.61 68.4% 68.6% 27.4%
Samuel Chukwueze 2.53 0.75 0.27 29.2% 32.4% 11.7%
Adrien Rabiot 1.7 0.61 0.28 43.7% 47.6% 23.2%
Alexis Saelemaekers 1.45 0.45 0.21 30.6% 32.8% 15.6%
Ardon Jashari 0.93 0.35 0 17.1% 9.0% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Juventus clean sheet 36.7%
Milan clean sheet 24.1%
Juventus win to nil 27.2%
Milan win to nil 14.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 46.2% draw 28.0% away 25.9%
double_chance
1X 74.2% 12 72.0% X2 53.8%
dnb
home 64.1% away 35.9%
btts
yes 48.6% no 51.4%
clean_sheet
home 36.8% away 24.1%
win_to_nil
home 27.3% away 14.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 14.1% home_by_3plus 8.8%
away_by_1 16.2% away_by_2 7.0% away_by_3plus 2.7%
correct_score
0-0 9.5% 0-1 8.2% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.0% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.1% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.0% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.3% 3-1 4.3% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.5% over_1.5 70.3%
under_1.5 29.7% over_2.5 43.7% under_2.5 56.3%
over_3.5 22.7% under_3.5 77.3% over_4.5 9.9%
under_4.5 90.1% over_5.5 3.7% under_5.5 96.3%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.1% over_1.5 41.7%
under_1.5 58.3% over_2.5 17.3% under_2.5 82.7%
team_away
over_0.5 63.2% under_0.5 36.8% over_1.5 26.4%
under_1.5 73.6% over_2.5 8.0% under_2.5 92.0%
most
home 46.2% draw 28.0% away 25.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.8% away_+2.5 91.2% home_-1.5 22.9%
away_+1.5 77.1% home_-0.5 46.2% away_+0.5 53.8%
home_+0.5 74.2% away_-0.5 25.9% home_+1.5 90.4%
away_-1.5 9.6% home_+2.5 97.3% away_-2.5 2.7%
total_exact
exact_0 9.5% exact_1 20.2% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 21.0% exact_4 12.7% exact_5 6.2%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 48.7% away 19.0%
total
over_0.5 59.6% under_0.5 40.4% over_1.5 23.0%
under_1.5 77.0% over_2.5 6.4% under_2.5 93.6%
btts
yes 12.7% no 87.3%
total_exact
exact_0 40.4% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.6%
exact_3 5.0% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.4% draw 38.1% away 27.6%
total
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.2%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.0% H/D 5.3% H/A 1.9%
D/H 16.7% D/D 18.5% D/A 13.4%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.0% A/A 13.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.5% under_7.5 37.5% over_8.5 51.4%
under_8.5 48.6% over_9.5 40.8% under_9.5 59.2%
over_10.5 31.3% under_10.5 68.7% over_11.5 23.2%
under_11.5 76.8% over_12.5 16.6% under_12.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.7% under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 53.6%
under_4.5 46.4% over_5.5 40.4% under_5.5 59.6%
team_away
over_3.5 49.2% under_3.5 50.8% over_4.5 33.9%
under_4.5 66.1% over_5.5 22.1% under_5.5 77.9%
most
home 58.0% draw 10.0% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.3% away_+3.5 71.7% home_-1.5 47.5%
away_+1.5 52.5% home_-0.5 58.0% away_+0.5 42.0%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 89.4% away_-3.5 10.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.5% under_22.5 38.5% over_24.5 49.5%
under_24.5 50.5% over_26.5 37.9% under_26.5 62.1%
over_28.5 27.5% under_28.5 72.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.9% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 58.7%
under_12.5 41.3% over_14.5 43.2% under_14.5 56.8%
team_away
over_10.5 49.2% under_10.5 50.8% over_12.5 32.3%
under_12.5 67.7% over_14.5 19.2% under_14.5 80.8%
most
home 65.4% draw 5.5% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.5% away_+4.5 58.5% home_-2.5 53.6%
away_+2.5 46.4% home_-0.5 65.4% away_+0.5 34.6%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+2.5 80.4%
away_-2.5 19.6% home_+4.5 87.7% away_-4.5 12.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.2% under_6.5 35.8% over_7.5 52.6%
under_7.5 47.4% over_8.5 41.4% under_8.5 58.6%
over_9.5 31.4% under_9.5 68.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.2% under_3.5 37.8% over_4.5 47.0%
under_4.5 53.0% over_5.5 33.6% under_5.5 66.4%
team_away
over_3.5 42.5% under_3.5 57.5% over_4.5 27.3%
under_4.5 72.7% over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
most
home 58.1% draw 11.5% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.7% away_+2.5 65.3% home_-0.5 58.1%
away_+0.5 41.9% home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.3% under_2.5 30.7% over_3.5 48.6%
under_3.5 51.4% over_4.5 30.0% under_4.5 70.0%
over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 48.2% under_1.5 51.8% over_2.5 22.9%
under_2.5 77.1%
team_away
over_1.5 58.1% under_1.5 41.9% over_2.5 31.9%
under_2.5 68.1%
most
home 32.7% draw 21.3% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 32.7%
away_+0.5 67.4% home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1%
home_+1.5 73.6% away_-1.5 26.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 63.0% under_20.5 37.0% over_22.5 49.0%
under_22.5 51.0% over_24.5 35.6% under_24.5 64.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.2% under_9.5 29.8% over_11.5 51.0%
under_11.5 49.0% over_13.5 32.9% under_13.5 67.1%
team_away
over_9.5 59.8% under_9.5 40.2% over_11.5 39.5%
under_11.5 60.5% over_13.5 22.8% under_13.5 77.2%
most
home 54.6% draw 7.0% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.7% away_+3.5 66.3% home_-0.5 54.6%
away_+0.5 45.4% home_+2.5 74.3% away_-2.5 25.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.5% no 90.5%
home
yes 2.2% no 97.8%
away
yes 7.4% no 92.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Juventus predictions · Milan predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AJuventusMilanTrack record