Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
75.8% |
Over 7.5 |
64.4% |
Over 8.5 |
52.1% |
Over 9.5 |
40.1% |
| Most: Stade Rennais FC |
46.0% |
Most: Marseille |
41.5% |
| Stade Rennais FC Over 4.2 |
46.7% |
Marseille Over 4.2 |
43.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
72.9% |
Over 3.5 |
52.4% |
Over 4.5 |
33.0% |
| Most: Stade Rennais FC |
31.1% |
Most: Marseille |
48.0% |
| Stade Rennais FC Over 1.8 |
50.1% |
Marseille Over 1.8 |
62.3% |
Marseille: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Mason Greenwood |
3.98 |
1.72 |
0.61 |
78.7% |
87.2% |
42.2% |
| Jonathan Rowe |
4.43 |
1.7 |
0.34 |
41.4% |
40.6% |
10.1% |
| Amine Gouiri |
3.32 |
1.54 |
0.68 |
67.9% |
70.2% |
39.4% |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
2.6 |
1.39 |
0.43 |
65.6% |
59.3% |
28.1% |
| Igor Paixão |
2.59 |
1.05 |
0.27 |
53.7% |
56.6% |
18.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Stade Rennais FC clean sheet |
14.1% |
| Marseille clean sheet |
30.8% |
| Stade Rennais FC win to nil |
9.2% |
| Marseille win to nil |
25.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
21.8% |
draw |
22.9% |
away |
55.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
44.7% |
12 |
77.1% |
X2 |
78.2% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
13.2% |
home_by_2 |
6.0% |
home_by_3plus |
2.6% |
| away_by_1 |
22.5% |
away_by_2 |
17.0% |
away_by_3plus |
15.8% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
4.9% |
0-1 |
8.2% |
0-2 |
8.5% |
| 0-3 |
5.5% |
0-4 |
2.7% |
0-5 |
1.1% |
| 1-0 |
4.6% |
1-1 |
10.6% |
1-2 |
9.8% |
| 1-3 |
6.4% |
1-4 |
3.1% |
1-5 |
1.2% |
| 2-0 |
3.0% |
2-1 |
5.8% |
2-2 |
5.7% |
| 2-3 |
3.7% |
2-4 |
1.8% |
2-5 |
0.7% |
| 3-0 |
1.2% |
3-1 |
2.3% |
3-2 |
2.2% |
| 3-3 |
1.4% |
3-4 |
0.7% |
3-5 |
0.3% |
| 4-0 |
0.3% |
4-1 |
0.7% |
4-2 |
0.6% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.2% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.6% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
10.6% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
95.1% |
under_0.5 |
4.9% |
over_1.5 |
82.3% |
| under_1.5 |
17.7% |
over_2.5 |
60.3% |
under_2.5 |
39.8% |
| over_3.5 |
37.9% |
under_3.5 |
62.1% |
over_4.5 |
20.5% |
| under_4.5 |
79.5% |
over_5.5 |
9.6% |
under_5.5 |
90.4% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
68.7% |
under_0.5 |
31.3% |
over_1.5 |
32.4% |
| under_1.5 |
67.7% |
over_2.5 |
11.2% |
under_2.5 |
88.8% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
85.9% |
under_0.5 |
14.1% |
over_1.5 |
58.2% |
| under_1.5 |
41.8% |
over_2.5 |
31.1% |
under_2.5 |
68.9% |
|
most
| home |
21.8% |
draw |
22.9% |
away |
55.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
2.6% |
away_+2.5 |
97.4% |
home_-1.5 |
8.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
91.4% |
home_-0.5 |
21.8% |
away_+0.5 |
78.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
44.7% |
away_-0.5 |
55.3% |
home_+1.5 |
67.2% |
| away_-1.5 |
32.8% |
home_+2.5 |
84.2% |
away_-2.5 |
15.8% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
4.9% |
exact_1 |
12.8% |
exact_2 |
22.0% |
| exact_3 |
22.4% |
exact_4 |
17.4% |
exact_5 |
10.9% |
| exact_6 |
5.6% |
exact_7plus |
4.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
23.3% |
draw |
43.3% |
away |
33.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
67.7% |
under_0.5 |
32.3% |
over_1.5 |
31.2% |
| under_1.5 |
68.8% |
over_2.5 |
10.6% |
under_2.5 |
89.4% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
32.3% |
exact_1 |
36.5% |
exact_2 |
20.6% |
| exact_3 |
7.8% |
exact_4plus |
2.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
34.6% |
draw |
31.2% |
away |
34.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
86.0% |
under_0.5 |
14.0% |
over_1.5 |
58.5% |
| under_1.5 |
41.5% |
over_2.5 |
31.5% |
under_2.5 |
68.5% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
16.5% |
H/D |
4.4% |
H/A |
2.5% |
| D/H |
15.0% |
D/D |
13.5% |
D/A |
14.8% |
| A/H |
3.4% |
A/D |
6.0% |
A/A |
24.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
71.1% |
under_7.5 |
28.9% |
over_8.5 |
59.2% |
| under_8.5 |
40.8% |
over_9.5 |
46.9% |
under_9.5 |
53.1% |
| over_10.5 |
35.4% |
under_10.5 |
64.6% |
over_11.5 |
25.4% |
| under_11.5 |
74.6% |
over_12.5 |
17.3% |
under_12.5 |
82.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
70.8% |
under_3.5 |
29.2% |
over_4.5 |
54.9% |
| under_4.5 |
45.1% |
over_5.5 |
39.5% |
under_5.5 |
60.5% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
61.1% |
under_3.5 |
39.0% |
over_4.5 |
43.9% |
| under_4.5 |
56.1% |
over_5.5 |
29.0% |
under_5.5 |
71.0% |
|
most
| home |
51.8% |
draw |
11.0% |
away |
37.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
21.6% |
away_+3.5 |
78.4% |
home_-1.5 |
40.7% |
| away_+1.5 |
59.3% |
home_-0.5 |
51.8% |
away_+0.5 |
48.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
62.7% |
away_-0.5 |
37.3% |
home_+1.5 |
72.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
27.3% |
home_+3.5 |
87.6% |
away_-3.5 |
12.4% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
62.7% |
under_22.5 |
37.3% |
over_24.5 |
50.1% |
| under_24.5 |
49.9% |
over_26.5 |
37.9% |
under_26.5 |
62.1% |
| over_28.5 |
27.1% |
under_28.5 |
72.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
69.3% |
under_10.5 |
30.7% |
over_12.5 |
52.2% |
| under_12.5 |
47.8% |
over_14.5 |
35.7% |
under_14.5 |
64.3% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
58.4% |
under_10.5 |
41.6% |
over_12.5 |
40.3% |
| under_12.5 |
59.7% |
over_14.5 |
25.0% |
under_14.5 |
75.0% |
|
most
| home |
55.2% |
draw |
6.3% |
away |
38.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
30.5% |
away_+4.5 |
69.5% |
home_-2.5 |
42.4% |
| away_+2.5 |
57.6% |
home_-0.5 |
55.2% |
away_+0.5 |
44.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.4% |
away_-0.5 |
38.6% |
home_+2.5 |
72.9% |
| away_-2.5 |
27.1% |
home_+4.5 |
82.4% |
away_-4.5 |
17.6% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
75.9% |
under_6.5 |
24.2% |
over_7.5 |
64.4% |
| under_7.5 |
35.6% |
over_8.5 |
52.1% |
under_8.5 |
47.9% |
| over_9.5 |
40.1% |
under_9.5 |
59.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
64.1% |
under_3.5 |
35.9% |
over_4.5 |
46.7% |
| under_4.5 |
53.3% |
over_5.5 |
31.2% |
under_5.5 |
68.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
61.2% |
under_3.5 |
38.9% |
over_4.5 |
43.5% |
| under_4.5 |
56.5% |
over_5.5 |
28.3% |
under_5.5 |
71.7% |
|
most
| home |
46.0% |
draw |
12.5% |
away |
41.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
23.4% |
away_+2.5 |
76.6% |
home_-0.5 |
46.0% |
| away_+0.5 |
54.1% |
home_+0.5 |
58.5% |
away_-0.5 |
41.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
79.9% |
away_-2.5 |
20.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
72.9% |
under_2.5 |
27.1% |
over_3.5 |
52.4% |
| under_3.5 |
47.6% |
over_4.5 |
33.0% |
under_4.5 |
67.0% |
| over_5.5 |
18.3% |
under_5.5 |
81.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.1% |
under_1.5 |
50.0% |
over_2.5 |
23.8% |
| under_2.5 |
76.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
62.3% |
under_1.5 |
37.7% |
over_2.5 |
35.3% |
| under_2.5 |
64.7% |
most
| home |
31.1% |
draw |
20.9% |
away |
48.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
15.2% |
away_+1.5 |
84.8% |
home_-0.5 |
31.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
68.9% |
home_+0.5 |
52.0% |
away_-0.5 |
48.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
72.0% |
away_-1.5 |
28.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
70.4% |
under_20.5 |
29.6% |
over_22.5 |
56.5% |
| under_22.5 |
43.6% |
over_24.5 |
42.1% |
under_24.5 |
57.9% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
68.4% |
under_9.5 |
31.7% |
over_11.5 |
47.6% |
| under_11.5 |
52.4% |
over_13.5 |
28.8% |
under_13.5 |
71.2% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
73.3% |
under_9.5 |
26.7% |
over_11.5 |
53.6% |
| under_11.5 |
46.4% |
over_13.5 |
34.3% |
under_13.5 |
65.8% |
|
most
| home |
42.2% |
draw |
7.3% |
away |
50.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
22.8% |
away_+3.5 |
77.2% |
home_-0.5 |
42.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
57.8% |
home_+2.5 |
63.8% |
away_-2.5 |
36.2% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 1
Marseille