Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

By /

Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Schalke 04

WLDLL

Full time0-0Sat, 5 Sep 202617:30UK21°C · Clear
Bayern Munich

WDWWW

Model’s top convictions

92%

Over 1.5 goals

90%

Draw or Bayern Munich

77%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time1 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern Munich
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
1 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Bayern Munich at 78.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 77.4% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 91.7% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 3.5 at 58.4% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 64.5% and it missed. We called Yes at 81.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 92.1% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 50.9% and it missed (11 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 55.2% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 60.3% and it missed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 75.4% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 76.7% and it landed.

Match data Schalke 04 Bayern Munich
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 4 15
Shots, 1st half 3 4
Shots, 2nd half 1 11
Shots on target 1 5
Corners 0 11
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 5 12
Expected goals (xG) 0.25 2.05

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Bayern MunichWin probability
78.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals91.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Draw or Bayern Munich90.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.11
Over 2.5 goals77.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.29

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Bayern Munich at 78% against Schalke 04, Bundesliga, 5 September 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 77% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. As a promoted side, Schalke 04 carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 0 wins for Schalke 04, 0 draws and 5 for Bayern Munich over 5 games, 5.0 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Schalke 04 W2 D1 L3, Bayern Munich W5 D1 L0. For shots markets, Junior Adamu is the obvious watch at 0.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.8%@ 1.70
Over 9.5 corners48.0%@ 2.08
Random finds

1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.11
other correct score8.2%@ 12.21
1-3 correct score8.1%@ 12.32

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Schalke 04

9.9%

Draw

11.9%

Bayern Munich

78.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.591.7%

High probability

Over 2.577.4%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.8%

Good chance

Over 9.548.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.8%

Low chance

Most cornersSchalke 0453.9%Bayern Munich35.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.3%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.8%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.591.7%2.577.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.577.4%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Schalke 04WLDLL
Bayern MunichWDWWW

Last 5 meetings: Schalke 04 0 · 0 draws · Bayern Munich 5 · 5.0 goals/game.

2023-05-13Bayern Munich 6-0 Schalke 04
2022-11-12Schalke 04 0-2 Bayern Munich
2021-01-24Schalke 04 0-4 Bayern Munich
2020-09-18Bayern Munich 8-0 Schalke 04
2020-01-25Bayern Munich 5-0 Schalke 04

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Schalke 04Bayern Munich
League position#17 of 18#1 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0
Current streakL1W1
Red cards this season10

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Junior AdamuSchalke 04 · key player
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target34.7%

@ 2.88

2+ shots39.5%

@ 2.53

Shots/90 2.11SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.14
Harry KaneBayern Munich · key player
To score63.2%

@ 1.58

1+ on target85.1%

@ 1.18

2+ shots89.0%

@ 1.12

Shots/90 4.41SoT/90 2.23Goals/90 1.17
Eric Junior Dina EbimbeSchalke 04 · in form
To score13.2%

@ 7.58

1+ on target20.3%

@ 4.93

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.3
Michael OliseBayern Munich · in form
To score34.8%

@ 2.87

1+ on target72.5%

@ 1.38

2+ shots79.2%

@ 1.26

Shots/90 3.72SoT/90 1.63Goals/90 0.54
Robin GosensSchalke 04 · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target20.3%

@ 4.93

2+ shots15.8%

@ 6.33

Shots/90 0.84SoT/90 0.27Goals/90 0.14
Lennart KarlBayern Munich · in form
To score16.8%

@ 5.95

1+ on target53.9%

@ 1.86

2+ shots46.1%

@ 2.17

Shots/90 2.97SoT/90 1.48Goals/90 0.35

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Schalke 04 win8.80
Draw6.78
Bayern Munich win1.35
Both teams to score1.55

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.09
Over 2.5 goals1.29
Over 3.5 goals1.71
Over 4.5 goals2.57
Schalke 04 most8.80
Bayern Munich most1.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.67
Schalke 04 most1.85
Bayern Munich most2.83

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.50
Over 3.5 cards2.23
Over 4.5 cards3.82
Over 5.5 cards7.50
Schalke 04 most2.69
Bayern Munich most2.48

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.33
Over 8.5 SoT1.54
Over 9.5 SoT1.87
Schalke 04 most2.39
Bayern Munich most2.14

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.40
Over 24.5 shots1.66
Over 26.5 shots2.07
Over 28.5 shots2.72
Schalke 04 most1.76
Bayern Munich most2.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.55
Over 22.5 fouls3.58
Over 24.5 fouls5.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.3% Over 7.5 75.4% Over 8.5 64.9% Over 9.5 53.6%
Most: Schalke 04 41.8% Most: Bayern Munich 46.8%
Schalke 04 Over 4.2 52.7% Bayern Munich Over 4.2 56.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.6% Over 3.5 44.8% Over 4.5 26.2%
Most: Schalke 04 37.2% Most: Bayern Munich 40.3%
Schalke 04 Over 1.8 50.0% Bayern Munich Over 1.8 52.3%

Schalke 04: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Junior Adamu 2.11 0.66 0.14 34.7% 39.5% 8.6%
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe 2.12 0.48 0.3 20.3% 26.4% 13.2%
Robin Gosens 0.84 0.27 0.14 20.3% 15.8% 11.1%
Timo Becker 0.51 0.08 0 7.0% 7.9% 0.0%

Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Harry Kane 4.41 2.23 1.17 85.1% 89.0% 63.2%
Michael Olise 3.72 1.63 0.54 72.5% 79.2% 34.8%
Lennart Karl 2.97 1.48 0.35 53.9% 46.1% 16.8%
Luis Díaz 2.97 1.23 0.49 62.6% 68.6% 32.4%
Tom Bischof 1.88 0.63 0.19 37.4% 40.7% 13.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Schalke 04 clean sheet 5.3%
Bayern Munich clean sheet 29.5%
Schalke 04 win to nil 3.3%
Bayern Munich win to nil 27.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 11.4% draw 14.7% away 73.9%
double_chance
1X 26.1% 12 85.3% X2 88.6%
dnb
home 13.3% away 86.7%
btts
yes 64.5% no 35.5%
clean_sheet
home 5.3% away 32.2%
win_to_nil
home 3.3% away 30.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 7.2% home_by_2 2.9% home_by_3plus 1.2%
away_by_1 19.1% away_by_2 19.7% away_by_3plus 35.2%
correct_score
0-0 2.0% 0-1 4.7% 0-2 7.3%
0-3 7.2% 0-4 5.3% 0-5 3.2%
1-0 1.6% 1-1 5.9% 1-2 8.3%
1-3 8.1% 1-4 6.0% 1-5 3.6%
2-0 1.1% 2-1 3.2% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 4.6% 2-4 3.4% 2-5 2.0%
3-0 0.4% 3-1 1.2% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.7% 3-4 1.3% 3-5 0.8%
4-0 0.1% 4-1 0.4% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.1%
other 8.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 200.0% p 8.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 98.0% under_0.5 2.0% over_1.5 91.7%
under_1.5 8.3% over_2.5 77.4% under_2.5 22.6%
over_3.5 58.4% under_3.5 41.6% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 49.4% even 50.6%
team_home
over_0.5 67.8% under_0.5 32.2% over_1.5 31.4%
under_1.5 68.6% over_2.5 10.7% under_2.5 89.3%
team_away
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 79.3%
under_1.5 20.7% over_2.5 56.6% under_2.5 43.4%
most
home 11.4% draw 14.7% away 73.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.2% away_+2.5 98.8% home_-1.5 4.1%
away_+1.5 95.9% home_-0.5 11.4% away_+0.5 88.6%
home_+0.5 26.1% away_-0.5 73.9% home_+1.5 45.2%
away_-1.5 54.8% home_+2.5 64.8% away_-2.5 35.2%
total_exact
exact_0 2.0% exact_1 6.3% exact_2 14.3%
exact_3 19.1% exact_4 19.5% exact_5 15.9%
exact_6 10.9% exact_7plus 12.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 18.9% draw 32.6% away 48.5%
total
over_0.5 81.2% under_0.5 18.8% over_1.5 49.8%
under_1.5 50.2% over_2.5 23.5% under_2.5 76.5%
btts
yes 29.0% no 71.0%
total_exact
exact_0 18.8% exact_1 31.4% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 14.6% exact_4plus 8.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 10.7% draw 20.2% away 69.2%
total
over_0.5 92.1% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 72.1%
under_1.5 27.9% over_2.5 46.7% under_2.5 53.3%
btts
yes 38.8% no 61.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 7.2% H/D 4.7% H/A 7.1%
D/H 3.5% D/D 6.6% D/A 22.5%
A/H 0.8% A/D 2.6% A/A 45.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.8% under_7.5 27.2% over_8.5 61.3%
under_8.5 38.7% over_9.5 49.1% under_9.5 50.9%
over_10.5 37.5% under_10.5 62.5% over_11.5 27.3%
under_11.5 72.7% over_12.5 18.9% under_12.5 81.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.1% under_3.5 26.9% over_4.5 57.8%
under_4.5 42.2% over_5.5 42.6% under_5.5 57.4%
team_away
over_3.5 60.7% under_3.5 39.3% over_4.5 43.6%
under_4.5 56.4% over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
most
home 54.0% draw 10.6% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.8% away_+3.5 76.3% home_-1.5 43.1%
away_+1.5 56.9% home_-0.5 54.0% away_+0.5 46.0%
home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4% home_+1.5 74.2%
away_-1.5 25.8% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.6% under_22.5 28.4% over_24.5 60.3%
under_24.5 39.7% over_26.5 48.3% under_26.5 51.7%
over_28.5 36.8% under_28.5 63.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.8% under_10.5 24.2% over_12.5 60.4%
under_12.5 39.6% over_14.5 44.3% under_14.5 55.7%
team_away
over_10.5 63.9% under_10.5 36.1% over_12.5 46.4%
under_12.5 53.6% over_14.5 30.6% under_14.5 69.4%
most
home 56.9% draw 5.9% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.2% away_+4.5 66.8% home_-2.5 44.8%
away_+2.5 55.2% home_-0.5 56.9% away_+0.5 43.1%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+2.5 73.6%
away_-2.5 26.5% home_+4.5 82.5% away_-4.5 17.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.3% under_6.5 15.7% over_7.5 75.4%
under_7.5 24.6% over_8.5 64.9% under_8.5 35.1%
over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.1% under_3.5 30.9% over_4.5 52.7%
under_4.5 47.3% over_5.5 37.2% under_5.5 62.8%
team_away
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 40.7% under_5.5 59.3%
most
home 41.8% draw 11.5% away 46.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.7% away_+2.5 78.3% home_-0.5 41.8%
away_+0.5 58.2% home_+0.5 53.3% away_-0.5 46.8%
home_+2.5 74.4% away_-2.5 25.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.6% under_2.5 33.4% over_3.5 44.8%
under_3.5 55.2% over_4.5 26.2% under_4.5 73.8%
over_5.5 13.3% under_5.5 86.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 50.0% under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 23.7%
under_2.5 76.3%
team_away
over_1.5 52.3% under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7%
under_2.5 74.3%
most
home 37.2% draw 22.5% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.8% away_+1.5 81.2% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+0.5 59.8% away_-0.5 40.3%
home_+1.5 79.0% away_-1.5 21.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 39.3% under_20.5 60.7% over_22.5 27.9%
under_22.5 72.1% over_24.5 18.8% under_24.5 81.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.5% under_9.5 52.5% over_11.5 30.7%
under_11.5 69.3% over_13.5 18.1% under_13.5 81.9%
team_away
over_9.5 46.5% under_9.5 53.6% over_11.5 29.7%
under_11.5 70.3% over_13.5 17.3% under_13.5 82.7%
most
home 47.3% draw 6.8% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.2% away_+3.5 71.8% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 67.2% away_-2.5 32.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
home
yes 18.9% no 81.2%
away
yes 5.5% no 94.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Schalke 04 predictions · Bayern Munich predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

BundesligaSchalke 04Bayern MunichTrack record