M’gladbach vs Elversberg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

By /

M'gladbach vs Elversberg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
M'gladbach

DWLWL

Full time3-4Sat, 5 Sep 202614:30UK
Elversberg

W

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

M'gladbach or draw

60%

Both teams to score

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

M'gladbach 3-4 Elversberg
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was M'gladbach at 53.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 59.1% and it landed (7 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.5% and it landed (7 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.3% and it missed (7 goals). We called Yes at 59.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 82.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.0% and it missed (17 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.9% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 58.4% and it landed (39 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 70.5% and it landed (16 shots on target). We called No at 87.3% and it landed.

Match data M'gladbach Elversberg
Goals, 1st half 2 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 3
Shots 25 14
Shots, 1st half 12 4
Shots, 2nd half 13 10
Shots on target 6 10
Corners 13 4
Yellow cards 3 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 18 9
Expected goals (xG) 2.89 3.03

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
M'gladbachWin probability
53.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
M'gladbach or draw76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Both teams to score59.7%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes M'gladbach heavy favourites at 53% when M'gladbach meet Elversberg in the Bundesliga on 5 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. For shots markets, Tim Kleindienst is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Form guide over the last six: M'gladbach W2 D2 L2, Elversberg W1 D0 L0. As a promoted side, Elversberg carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Elversberg46.7%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16
Over 10.5 corners36.1%@ 2.77
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals59.1%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners57.0%@ 1.75
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.11
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.30
1-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.25

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

M'gladbach

53.3%

Draw

23.4%

Elversberg

23.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.5%

High probability

Over 2.559.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.0%

Good chance

Over 9.546.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.2%

Low chance

Most cornersM'gladbach54.9%Elversberg34.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.4%

Good chance

Over 26.546.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.5%2.559.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.5%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

M'gladbachDWLWL
ElversbergW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

M'gladbachElversberg
League position#16 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0
Current streakL1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Tim KleindienstM'gladbach · key player
To score33.9%

@ 2.95

1+ on target65.5%

@ 1.53

2+ shots64.7%

@ 1.55

Shots/90 2.45SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.46
Hugo BolinM'gladbach · in form
To score18.2%

@ 5.49

1+ on target41.4%

@ 2.42

2+ shots49.6%

@ 2.02

Shots/90 3.15SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.38
Robin HackM'gladbach · in form
To score11.0%

@ 9.09

1+ on target48.7%

@ 2.05

2+ shots49.6%

@ 2.02

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.17

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

M'gladbach win1.92
Draw4.22
Elversberg win4.14
Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.72
M'gladbach most1.92
Elversberg most4.14

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.69
Over 9.5 corners2.13
Over 10.5 corners2.82
M'gladbach most1.82
Elversberg most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.89
Over 4.5 cards2.99
Over 5.5 cards5.36
M'gladbach most2.96
Elversberg most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.42
Over 8.5 SoT1.69
Over 9.5 SoT2.10
M'gladbach most1.82
Elversberg most2.99

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.71
Over 26.5 shots2.16
Over 28.5 shots2.87
M'gladbach most1.68
Elversberg most2.88

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.89
Over 22.5 fouls2.46
Over 24.5 fouls3.35
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.6% Over 7.5 70.5% Over 8.5 59.2% Over 9.5 47.5%
Most: M'gladbach 55.0% Most: Elversberg 33.5%
M'gladbach Over 4.2 57.7% Elversberg Over 4.2 42.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.3% Over 3.5 52.9% Over 4.5 33.5%
Most: M'gladbach 33.7% Most: Elversberg 45.2%
M'gladbach Over 1.8 52.5% Elversberg Over 1.8 60.8%

M'gladbach: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Kleindienst 2.45 1.18 0.46 65.5% 64.7% 33.9%
Hugo Bolin 3.15 1.01 0.38 41.4% 49.6% 18.2%
Robin Hack 2.42 0.97 0.17 48.7% 49.6% 11.0%
Wael Mohya 1.88 0.81 0.27 29.8% 19.9% 11.1%
Kevin Stöger 1.54 0.59 0.13 26.2% 18.9% 6.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

M'gladbach clean sheet 29.6%
Elversberg clean sheet 15.6%
M'gladbach win to nil 24.4%
Elversberg win to nil 10.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.1% draw 23.7% away 24.1%
double_chance
1X 75.9% 12 76.3% X2 47.9%
dnb
home 68.4% away 31.7%
btts
yes 59.7% no 40.3%
clean_sheet
home 30.0% away 15.6%
win_to_nil
home 24.8% away 10.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.3% home_by_2 16.1% home_by_3plus 13.8%
away_by_1 14.3% away_by_2 6.8% away_by_3plus 3.1%
correct_score
0-0 5.2% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.2% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.0% 3-1 6.0% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.3% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 1.0% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.2% over_1.5 81.5%
under_1.5 18.5% over_2.5 59.1% under_2.5 40.9%
over_3.5 36.7% under_3.5 63.3% over_4.5 19.6%
under_4.5 80.4% over_5.5 9.1% under_5.5 90.9%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.6% over_1.5 55.5%
under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5% under_2.5 71.5%
team_away
over_0.5 70.1% under_0.5 30.0% over_1.5 34.0%
under_1.5 66.1% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.8%
most
home 52.1% draw 23.7% away 24.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.8% away_+2.5 86.2% home_-1.5 29.9%
away_+1.5 70.1% home_-0.5 52.1% away_+0.5 47.9%
home_+0.5 75.9% away_-0.5 24.1% home_+1.5 90.1%
away_-1.5 9.9% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.1%
total_exact
exact_0 5.2% exact_1 13.3% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.5%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.0% draw 37.0% away 40.0%
total
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.7% under_2.5 82.4%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.6%
total_exact
exact_0 23.7% exact_1 34.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.7% draw 33.0% away 27.3%
total
over_0.5 82.9% under_0.5 17.1% over_1.5 52.6%
under_1.5 47.4% over_2.5 26.0% under_2.5 74.0%
btts
yes 33.8% no 66.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.8% H/D 3.6% H/A 1.6%
D/H 14.7% D/D 12.2% D/A 10.1%
A/H 4.5% A/D 7.6% A/A 28.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.2% under_7.5 28.8% over_8.5 59.3%
under_8.5 40.7% over_9.5 47.0% under_9.5 53.0%
over_10.5 35.5% under_10.5 64.5% over_11.5 25.5%
under_11.5 74.5% over_12.5 17.4% under_12.5 82.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.6% under_3.5 27.4% over_4.5 57.2%
under_4.5 42.8% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 58.6% under_3.5 41.4% over_4.5 41.3%
under_4.5 58.7% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 55.0% draw 10.7% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.2% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-1.5 44.0%
away_+1.5 56.0% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 89.1% away_-3.5 10.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 70.0% under_22.5 30.0% over_24.5 58.4%
under_24.5 41.7% over_26.5 46.3% under_26.5 53.7%
over_28.5 34.9% under_28.5 65.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.1% under_10.5 23.9% over_12.5 60.8%
under_12.5 39.2% over_14.5 44.7% under_14.5 55.3%
team_away
over_10.5 60.8% under_10.5 39.3% over_12.5 43.0%
under_12.5 57.0% over_14.5 27.6% under_14.5 72.4%
most
home 59.5% draw 5.8% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.5% away_+4.5 64.5% home_-2.5 47.4%
away_+2.5 52.6% home_-0.5 59.5% away_+0.5 40.5%
home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.2% home_+4.5 84.2% away_-4.5 15.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.6% under_6.5 19.4% over_7.5 70.5%
under_7.5 29.5% over_8.5 59.2% under_8.5 40.8%
over_9.5 47.5% under_9.5 52.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.2% under_3.5 26.8% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 42.2% under_5.5 57.8%
team_away
over_3.5 59.7% under_3.5 40.3% over_4.5 42.1%
under_4.5 57.9% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 55.0% draw 11.5% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.0% away_+2.5 68.0% home_-0.5 55.0%
away_+0.5 45.0% home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5%
home_+2.5 84.7% away_-2.5 15.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.3% under_2.5 26.7% over_3.5 52.9%
under_3.5 47.1% over_4.5 33.5% under_4.5 66.5%
over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.5% under_1.5 47.5% over_2.5 25.9%
under_2.5 74.1%
team_away
over_1.5 60.8% under_1.5 39.2% over_2.5 33.8%
under_2.5 66.2%
most
home 33.7% draw 21.1% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 33.7%
away_+0.5 66.3% home_+0.5 54.8% away_-0.5 45.2%
home_+1.5 74.2% away_-1.5 25.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.8% under_20.5 47.2% over_22.5 40.7%
under_22.5 59.3% over_24.5 29.8% under_24.5 70.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 54.0% under_9.5 46.0% over_11.5 36.8%
under_11.5 63.2% over_13.5 23.1% under_13.5 76.9%
team_away
over_9.5 58.9% under_9.5 41.1% over_11.5 41.9%
under_11.5 58.2% over_13.5 27.4% under_13.5 72.6%
most
home 43.3% draw 6.3% away 50.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.0% away_+3.5 74.0% home_-0.5 43.3%
away_+0.5 56.7% home_+2.5 62.1% away_-2.5 37.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.7% no 87.3%
home
yes 7.1% no 92.9%
away
yes 6.0% no 94.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: M'gladbach predictions · Elversberg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

BundesligaM'gladbachElversbergTrack record