Genclerbirligi vs Erzurumspor: model prediction
Süper LigGenclerbirligi or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Genclerbirligi at 51.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 51.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Genclerbirligi heavy favourites at 52% when Genclerbirligi meet Erzurumspor in the Süper Lig on 28 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Genclerbirligi than the market (48%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Genclerbirligi W5 D0 L1, Erzurumspor W0 D0 L2. As a promoted side, Erzurumspor carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.021 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.6%+3.3%
26.5%-1.9%
21.9%-1.5%
conservative EV -0.021 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Genclerbirligi
ErzurumsporBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.7% | Over 7.5 | 60.7% | Over 8.5 | 48.3% | Over 9.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genclerbirligi | 54.0% | Most: Erzurumspor | 33.7% | ||||
| Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 | 49.6% | Erzurumspor Over 4.2 | 34.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.1% | Over 3.5 | 59.2% | Over 4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genclerbirligi | 34.2% | Most: Erzurumspor | 45.6% | ||
| Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 | 57.1% | Erzurumspor Over 1.8 | 65.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Genclerbirligi clean sheet | 38.8% |
|---|---|
| Erzurumspor clean sheet | 20.7% |
| Genclerbirligi win to nil | 30.2% |
| Erzurumspor win to nil | 12.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 51.6% | draw | 26.5% | away | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.1% | 12 | 73.5% | X2 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 70.2% | away | 29.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.9% | no | 51.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.1% | away | 20.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 30.4% | away | 12.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.2% | home_by_2 | 16.0% | home_by_3plus | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.2% | away_by_2 | 5.7% | away_by_3plus | 2.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 1-1 | 12.6% | 1-2 | 5.6% |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | 2-1 | 9.4% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.3% | 3-1 | 4.9% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.1% | 4-1 | 2.0% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.8% | over_2.5 | 46.0% | under_2.5 | 54.0% |
| over_3.5 | 24.6% | under_3.5 | 75.4% | over_4.5 | 11.1% |
| under_4.5 | 88.9% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.3% | over_2.5 | 21.0% | under_2.5 | 79.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.9% | under_0.5 | 39.1% | over_1.5 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.8% | over_2.5 | 7.0% | under_2.5 | 93.0% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 26.5% | away | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.4% | away_+2.5 | 88.6% | home_-1.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 72.6% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.1% | away_-0.5 | 21.9% | home_+1.5 | 92.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.7% | home_+2.5 | 98.0% | away_-2.5 | 2.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.7% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.5% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.3% | draw | 39.1% | away | 19.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.5% | under_0.5 | 27.5% | over_1.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.9% | over_2.5 | 14.1% | under_2.5 | 85.9% |
btts
| yes | 21.0% | no | 79.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.5% | exact_1 | 35.5% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.9% | exact_4plus | 4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.5% | draw | 35.6% | away | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.1% | over_1.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.7% | over_2.5 | 16.3% | under_2.5 | 83.7% |
btts
| yes | 20.1% | no | 79.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 37.3% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 19.8% | D/D | 13.9% | D/A | 5.5% |
| A/H | 3.4% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 11.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.1% | under_7.5 | 28.9% | over_8.5 | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.7% | over_9.5 | 47.2% | under_9.5 | 52.8% |
| over_10.5 | 35.7% | under_10.5 | 64.3% | over_11.5 | 25.7% |
| under_11.5 | 74.3% | over_12.5 | 17.7% | under_12.5 | 82.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.8% | under_3.5 | 31.2% | over_4.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.2% | over_5.5 | 37.7% | under_5.5 | 62.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.0% | under_3.5 | 37.0% | over_4.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 31.3% | under_5.5 | 68.7% |
most
| home | 48.9% | draw | 10.9% | away | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.0% | away_+3.5 | 80.0% | home_-1.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 61.9% | home_-0.5 | 48.9% | away_+0.5 | 51.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.8% | away_-0.5 | 40.2% | home_+1.5 | 69.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.1% | home_+3.5 | 85.6% | away_-3.5 | 14.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.0% | under_22.5 | 35.0% | over_24.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.0% | over_26.5 | 41.1% | under_26.5 | 58.9% |
| over_28.5 | 30.2% | under_28.5 | 69.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.7% | under_10.5 | 27.3% | over_12.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 43.1% | over_14.5 | 40.9% | under_14.5 | 59.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.0% | under_10.5 | 43.0% | over_12.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.6% | over_14.5 | 24.7% | under_14.5 | 75.3% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 5.9% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.1% | away_+4.5 | 64.9% | home_-2.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.0% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% | away_+0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% | home_+2.5 | 75.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.4% | home_+4.5 | 84.2% | away_-4.5 | 15.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.7% | under_6.5 | 27.3% | over_7.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.3% | over_8.5 | 48.3% | under_8.5 | 51.7% |
| over_9.5 | 36.6% | under_9.5 | 63.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.5% | under_3.5 | 33.5% | over_4.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.4% | over_5.5 | 34.2% | under_5.5 | 65.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.6% | under_3.5 | 47.4% | over_4.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.1% | over_5.5 | 21.1% | under_5.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 54.0% | draw | 12.3% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.8% | away_+2.5 | 70.2% | home_-0.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.0% | home_+0.5 | 66.3% | away_-0.5 | 33.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.1% | under_2.5 | 21.9% | over_3.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 40.8% | over_4.5 | 39.7% | under_4.5 | 60.3% |
| over_5.5 | 23.6% | under_5.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.1% | under_1.5 | 42.9% | over_2.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.0% | under_1.5 | 35.0% | over_2.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.8% |
most
| home | 34.2% | draw | 20.1% | away | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.0% | away_+1.5 | 82.0% | home_-0.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.8% | home_+0.5 | 54.4% | away_-0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.2% | away_-1.5 | 26.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.6% | under_20.5 | 15.4% | over_22.5 | 73.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 26.5% | over_24.5 | 59.8% | under_24.5 | 40.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.2% | under_9.5 | 20.8% | over_11.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.1% | over_13.5 | 39.2% | under_13.5 | 60.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.1% | under_9.5 | 15.9% | over_11.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.9% | over_13.5 | 46.8% | under_13.5 | 53.2% |
most
| home | 40.9% | draw | 7.3% | away | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.6% | away_+3.5 | 78.4% | home_-0.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.1% | home_+2.5 | 62.8% | away_-2.5 | 37.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.1% | no | 87.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.8% | no | 94.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.7% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Genclerbirligi predictions · Erzurumspor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets