Pro League

Waregem vs Beveren Double Chance

2026-08-22 · 15:00

Double Chance80.5%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Result

Waregem 4-0 Beveren

✓ Waregem or Draw

The highest-probability cover, Waregem or Draw (80.5%), landed.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 80.5%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.

81%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Home or Draw at 80.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Waregem are favoured at 57.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Double Chance

★ Top coverWaregem or Draw80.5%

Draw or Beveren43.0%

Waregem or Beveren76.5%

Draw no bet

Waregem74.5%

Beveren25.5%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin	Probability
Waregem by 1	23.6%
Waregem by 2	17.7%
Waregem by 3+	15.7%
Beveren by 1	12.5%
Beveren by 2	5.1%
Beveren by 3+	1.9%
Draw	23.5%

Goal handicap

Waregem line	Waregem	Beveren
-2.5	15.7%	84.3%
-1.5	33.4%	66.6%
-0.5	57.0%	43.0%
+0.5	80.5%	19.5%

Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Waregem or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

57.0%Favoured: Waregem

54.0%Both Teams to Score

54.6%Over 2.5 goals

For context, Waregem are favoured at 57.0%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 80.5% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.

The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 54.6% over 2.5 read.

The ScoutWaregem are the model’s pick on the result at 57.0%, game state shapes how this market plays out.

The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Form & head-to-head

WaregemWWWWD

BeverenLW

FAQ

Which double chance landed in Waregem vs Beveren?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 80.5%; it landed, final score 4-0.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate

0.0097Calibration error

55,318Matches graded

In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%

7 of 10 recent calls hit.

Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss

Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit

Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit

Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit

Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Pro League, Double Chance

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.

Waregem vs Beveren prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)