Salford vs Port Vale prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

By /

Salford vs Port Vale: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

League Two
Salford

DLLLW

Full time1-0Sat, 5 Sep 202612:30UK
Port Vale

LLDDL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Salford or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Salford 1-0 Port Vale
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Salford at 56.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.8% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.1% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 52.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 75.0% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.8% and it landed (12 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.3% and it landed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 51.4% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 91.7% and it landed.

Match data Salford Port Vale
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 8 13
Shots on target 2 3
Corners 6 6
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 18

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SalfordWin probability
56.4%
Top 3 convictions

Salford or draw81.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals73.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Over 8.5 corners60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

Salford go into this League Two meeting with Port Vale on 5 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Salford than the market (52%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Port Vale are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Salford arrive W2 D1 L3, Port Vale W1 D2 L3. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Salford, 0 draws and 3 for Port Vale, averaging 1.6 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.020 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.2%@ 2.12
Draw or Port Vale43.6%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.8%@ 1.89
Not both teams to score52.1%@ 1.92
Over 9.5 corners49.7%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-0 correct score12.5%@ 8.00
1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.40
2-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.03

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Salford

56.4%+4.5%

Draw

25.1%-0.7%

Port Vale

18.5%-3.8%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.020 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes47.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersSalford58.4%Port Vale31.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.4%

Good chance

Over 24.546.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.1%2.547.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

SalfordDLLLW
Port ValeLLDDL

Last 5 meetings: Salford 2 · 0 draws · Port Vale 3 · 1.6 goals/game.

2025-02-22Port Vale 2-1 Salford
2024-08-10Salford 0-2 Port Vale
2022-04-05Salford 0-1 Port Vale
2022-01-18Port Vale 0-1 Salford
2021-03-02Salford 1-0 Port Vale

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SalfordPort Vale
League position#20 of 24#24 of 24
Record W-D-L1-0-30-2-2
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-10-0-2
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Salford win1.811.77
Draw3.503.98
Port Vale win4.005.41
Over 2.5 goals1.902.12
Under 2.5 goals1.901.89

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Salford win1.77
Draw3.98
Port Vale win5.40
Both teams to score2.09

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.12
Over 3.5 goals3.91
Salford most1.77
Port Vale most5.40

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.97
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Salford most1.71
Port Vale most3.20

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.29
Over 5.5 cards6.13
Salford most2.64
Port Vale most2.48

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56
Over 7.5 SoT1.94
Over 8.5 SoT2.56
Over 9.5 SoT3.54
Salford most1.75
Port Vale most3.30

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.68
Over 24.5 shots2.14
Over 26.5 shots2.89
Over 28.5 shots4.14
Salford most1.62
Port Vale most3.09

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.30
Over 22.5 fouls1.57
Over 24.5 fouls2.04
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.3% Over 7.5 51.4% Over 8.5 39.1% Over 9.5 28.2%
Most: Salford 57.3% Most: Port Vale 30.3%
Salford Over 4.2 45.3% Port Vale Over 4.2 26.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.7% Over 3.5 49.6% Over 4.5 30.4%
Most: Salford 37.9% Most: Port Vale 40.3%
Salford Over 1.8 53.6% Port Vale Over 1.8 55.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Salford clean sheet 41.7%
Port Vale clean sheet 18.4%
Salford win to nil 33.4%
Port Vale win to nil 10.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.4% draw 25.1% away 18.5%
double_chance
1X 81.5% 12 74.9% X2 43.6%
dnb
home 75.3% away 24.7%
btts
yes 47.9% no 52.1%
clean_sheet
home 42.0% away 18.4%
win_to_nil
home 33.7% away 10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.8% home_by_2 17.6% home_by_3plus 14.0%
away_by_1 12.4% away_by_2 4.6% away_by_3plus 1.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.3% 0-1 6.1% 0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.8% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 12.5% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 4.9%
1-3 1.4% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 11.1% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.2% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.3% 3-1 5.4% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.7% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 73.1%
under_1.5 26.9% over_2.5 47.2% under_2.5 52.8%
over_3.5 25.6% under_3.5 74.4% over_4.5 11.7%
under_4.5 88.3% over_5.5 4.6% under_5.5 95.4%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 81.6% under_0.5 18.4% over_1.5 50.5%
under_1.5 49.5% over_2.5 24.2% under_2.5 75.9%
team_away
over_0.5 58.0% under_0.5 42.0% over_1.5 21.6%
under_1.5 78.4% over_2.5 5.8% under_2.5 94.2%
most
home 56.4% draw 25.1% away 18.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.0% away_+2.5 86.0% home_-1.5 31.6%
away_+1.5 68.4% home_-0.5 56.4% away_+0.5 43.6%
home_+0.5 81.5% away_-0.5 18.5% home_+1.5 93.9%
away_-1.5 6.1% home_+2.5 98.5% away_-2.5 1.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.3% exact_1 18.6% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.9% draw 49.4% away 25.7%
total
over_0.5 59.3% under_0.5 40.7% over_1.5 22.7%
under_1.5 77.3% over_2.5 6.3% under_2.5 93.7%
btts
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
total_exact
exact_0 40.7% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.4%
exact_3 4.9% exact_4plus 1.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.9% draw 37.2% away 19.0%
total
over_0.5 75.0% under_0.5 25.0% over_1.5 40.4%
under_1.5 59.6% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
btts
yes 22.9% no 77.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.0% H/D 3.1% H/A 0.8%
D/H 21.7% D/D 18.3% D/A 9.4%
A/H 3.5% A/D 6.3% A/A 16.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.8% under_7.5 26.3% over_8.5 62.6%
under_8.5 37.4% over_9.5 50.8% under_9.5 49.2%
over_10.5 39.4% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 29.2%
under_11.5 70.8% over_12.5 20.7% under_12.5 79.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.1% under_3.5 23.9% over_4.5 61.8%
under_4.5 38.2% over_5.5 46.9% under_5.5 53.1%
team_away
over_3.5 58.3% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 41.1%
under_4.5 58.9% over_5.5 26.7% under_5.5 73.3%
most
home 58.5% draw 10.3% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 47.7%
away_+1.5 52.3% home_-0.5 58.5% away_+0.5 41.5%
home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2% home_+1.5 77.8%
away_-1.5 22.2% home_+3.5 90.5% away_-3.5 9.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.4% under_22.5 40.6% over_24.5 46.7%
under_24.5 53.3% over_26.5 34.6% under_26.5 65.4%
over_28.5 24.2% under_28.5 75.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.0% under_10.5 29.0% over_12.5 54.2%
under_12.5 45.8% over_14.5 37.7% under_14.5 62.3%
team_away
over_10.5 51.3% under_10.5 48.7% over_12.5 33.2%
under_12.5 66.8% over_14.5 19.3% under_14.5 80.7%
most
home 61.6% draw 6.1% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.1% away_+4.5 63.9% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 61.6% away_+0.5 38.5%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4% home_+2.5 78.3%
away_-2.5 21.7% home_+4.5 86.6% away_-4.5 13.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.3% under_6.5 35.7% over_7.5 51.4%
under_7.5 48.6% over_8.5 39.1% under_8.5 60.9%
over_9.5 28.2% under_9.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.3% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.7% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
team_away
over_3.5 42.8% under_3.5 57.2% over_4.5 26.3%
under_4.5 73.7% over_5.5 14.7% under_5.5 85.3%
most
home 57.3% draw 12.5% away 30.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.9% away_+2.5 68.2% home_-0.5 57.3%
away_+0.5 42.7% home_+0.5 69.7% away_-0.5 30.3%
home_+2.5 88.1% away_-2.5 12.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.7% under_2.5 29.3% over_3.5 49.6%
under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 30.4% under_4.5 69.6%
over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.8%
under_2.5 73.2%
team_away
over_1.5 55.4% under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.4%
under_2.5 71.6%
most
home 37.9% draw 21.8% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.8% away_+1.5 80.2% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3%
home_+1.5 78.4% away_-1.5 21.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.2% under_20.5 22.8% over_22.5 63.8%
under_22.5 36.2% over_24.5 48.9% under_24.5 51.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.6% under_9.5 30.4% over_11.5 47.8%
under_11.5 52.2% over_13.5 27.9% under_13.5 72.1%
team_away
over_9.5 81.7% under_9.5 18.3% over_11.5 63.7%
under_11.5 36.3% over_13.5 43.3% under_13.5 56.7%
most
home 35.1% draw 7.2% away 57.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.1% away_+3.5 82.9% home_-0.5 35.1%
away_+0.5 64.9% home_+2.5 57.4% away_-2.5 42.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.3% no 91.7%
home
yes 4.3% no 95.7%
away
yes 4.2% no 95.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Salford predictions · Port Vale predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

League TwoSalfordPort ValeTrack record