La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Malaga Both Teams to Score
Result
We called No at 51.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.2% and it landed (3 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Both teams to score · No at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Real Madrid have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Malaga 0.4 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 65.1% for over 2.5 and 85.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Malaga in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
2.6
0.8
0.4
2.2
Each team to score
By half
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
48.2%Both Teams to Score65.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 65.1% for three or more goals and 85.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Real Madrid favoured at 79.4%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Real Madrid to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 4 · 1 draws · Malaga 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Did both teams score in Real Madrid vs Malaga?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 48.2%. Both teams did not both score, final score 4-0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,236 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.