PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Both Teams to Score

2026-09-13 · 19:00
Both Teams to Score63.1%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 63.1%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
63%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · Yes at 63.1%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: PSV Eindhoven have averaged 3.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Sparta Rotterdam 1.8 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 76.7% for over 2.5 and 91.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 goals a game. PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Sparta Rotterdam in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes63.1%

No36.9%

Over 2.5 · context76.7%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

PSV Eindhoven scored

3.6

PSV Eindhoven conceded

1.2

Sparta Rotterdam scored

1.8

Sparta Rotterdam conceded

1.8

Each team to score

PSV Eindhoven to score94.7%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals79.2%

Sparta Rotterdam to score66.3%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals29.6%

By half

Both score in 1st half25.8%

Both score in 2nd half36.9%

This season (2026/27)

100.0%PSV Eindhoven BTTS rate
0.0%PSV Eindhoven clean sheets
3.6PSV Eindhoven goals scored per game
80.0%Sparta Rotterdam BTTS rate
0.0%Sparta Rotterdam clean sheets
1.8Sparta Rotterdam goals scored per game

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

2.1%

0

6.6%

1

14.7%

2

19.3%

3

19.5%

4

29.8%

5+

In-depth analysis

74.8%Favoured: PSV Eindhoven
63.1%Both Teams to Score
76.7%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 76.7% for three or more goals and 91.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given PSV Eindhoven favoured at 74.8%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 63.1% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads an open, higher-tempo game from the 76.7% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutPSV Eindhoven are the model’s pick on the result at 74.8%, context for how the goals may flow.

Match outlook

PSV Eindhoven74.8%

Draw14.5%

Sparta Rotterdam10.7%

The model leans PSV Eindhoven to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

PSV EindhovenDWWWW
Sparta RotterdamLWDLD

Last 5 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 · 0 draws · Sparta Rotterdam 0 · 4.4 goals/game.

Recent trends

PSV EindhovenBTTS 5/5Over 2.5 5/5
Sparta RotterdamBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 4/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 63.1% for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam.

Will PSV Eindhoven score against Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates PSV Eindhoven to score at 94.7% and Sparta Rotterdam to score at 66.3%.

How often have PSV Eindhoven seen both teams score recently?
PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Sparta Rotterdam in 4 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 5,754 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 58.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

More Eredivisie, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.