Expected Goals (xG)

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Nottingham Forest have created 1.78 xG and scored 2.67 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Leeds have created 1.91 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Match outlook

The model leans Nottingham Forest to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Nottingham Forest 2 · 0 draws · Leeds 2 · 3.0 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)

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