Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs 
Leeds Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.7% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Nottingham Forest have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Leeds 1.4 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.5% for over 2.5 and 75.6% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 0-1 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 0-0 | 7.4% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
| 2-2 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Nottingham Forest \ Leeds | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Nottingham Forest goals, columns = Leeds. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 50.5% for three or more goals and 75.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Nottingham Forest favoured at 42.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nottingham Forest 2 · 0 draws · Leeds 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
The model's most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds is 1-1 at 12.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.