Metz vs Laval: model prediction
Ligue 2Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Laval
Metz or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Laval at 36.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 50.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Laval at 36% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 22 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Laval than the market (22%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) For shots markets, Giorgi Abuashvili is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, Metz carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for Metz against W3 D1 L2 for Laval. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Metz, 2 draws and 0 for Laval, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
34.9%-16.4%
28.7%+1.5%
36.4%+14.8%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Metz 3 · 2 draws · Laval 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
MetzLavalPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 12.20
@ 3.08
@ 3.79
@ 5.49
@ 2.22
@ 2.96
@ 6.71
@ 2.61
@ 2.23
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.2% | Over 7.5 | 55.7% | Over 8.5 | 43.3% | Over 9.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Metz | 59.2% | Most: Laval | 28.8% | ||||
| Metz Over 4.2 | 49.6% | Laval Over 4.2 | 27.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.1% | Over 3.5 | 50.1% | Over 4.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Metz | 35.2% | Most: Laval | 43.2% | ||
| Metz Over 1.8 | 51.9% | Laval Over 1.8 | 57.7% |
Metz: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgi Abuashvili | 3.16 | 1.24 | 0.27 | 32.5% | 26.4% | 8.2% |
| Giorgi Kvilitaia | 2.15 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 45.0% | 33.8% | 18.2% |
| Habib Diallo | 1.79 | 0.57 | 0.19 | 38.3% | 44.8% | 14.9% |
| Ibou Sané | 1.04 | 0.52 | 0.17 | 17.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Gauthier Hein | 1.68 | 0.5 | 0.31 | 36.3% | 44.7% | 24.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Metz clean sheet | 29.2% |
|---|---|
| Laval clean sheet | 30.1% |
| Metz win to nil | 19.7% |
| Laval win to nil | 20.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.9% | draw | 28.7% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.6% | 12 | 71.3% | X2 | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 49.0% | away | 51.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.1% | no | 49.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.2% | away | 30.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.8% | away | 20.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.9% | home_by_2 | 10.1% | home_by_3plus | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.4% | away_by_2 | 10.6% | away_by_3plus | 5.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 0-1 | 10.2% | 0-2 | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.6% | under_0.5 | 9.5% | over_1.5 | 70.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.5% | over_2.5 | 43.8% | under_2.5 | 56.2% |
| over_3.5 | 22.8% | under_3.5 | 77.2% | over_4.5 | 10.0% |
| under_4.5 | 90.0% | over_5.5 | 3.8% | under_5.5 | 96.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.9% | under_0.5 | 30.1% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.1% | under_2.5 | 87.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.8% | under_0.5 | 29.2% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.1% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
most
| home | 34.9% | draw | 28.7% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.9% | away_+2.5 | 95.1% | home_-1.5 | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.0% | home_-0.5 | 34.9% | away_+0.5 | 65.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+1.5 | 84.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.0% | home_+2.5 | 94.7% | away_-2.5 | 5.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.5% | exact_1 | 20.1% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.1% | exact_4 | 12.8% | exact_5 | 6.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.2% | draw | 48.7% | away | 17.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 59.2% | under_0.5 | 40.8% | over_1.5 | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.3% | over_2.5 | 6.2% | under_2.5 | 93.8% |
btts
| yes | 12.1% | no | 87.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 40.8% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.9% | exact_4plus | 1.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.7% | draw | 31.5% | away | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.7% | under_0.5 | 18.3% | over_1.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.4% | over_2.5 | 24.2% | under_2.5 | 75.8% |
btts
| yes | 28.3% | no | 71.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 29.6% | H/D | 3.6% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 25.2% | D/D | 15.4% | D/A | 8.2% |
| A/H | 3.5% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 9.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 68.3% | under_7.5 | 31.7% | over_8.5 | 56.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.9% | over_9.5 | 43.8% | under_9.5 | 56.2% |
| over_10.5 | 32.6% | under_10.5 | 67.5% | over_11.5 | 23.0% |
| under_11.5 | 77.0% | over_12.5 | 15.5% | under_12.5 | 84.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.0% | under_3.5 | 28.0% | over_4.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.7% | over_5.5 | 41.0% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.3% | under_3.5 | 44.7% | over_4.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.1% | over_5.5 | 23.8% | under_5.5 | 76.2% |
most
| home | 56.7% | draw | 10.9% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.8% | away_+3.5 | 75.2% | home_-1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.7% | home_-0.5 | 56.7% | away_+0.5 | 43.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% | home_+1.5 | 77.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.9% | home_+3.5 | 90.5% | away_-3.5 | 9.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 50.8% | under_22.5 | 49.2% | over_24.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 62.0% | over_26.5 | 26.8% | under_26.5 | 73.3% |
| over_28.5 | 17.6% | under_28.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.1% | under_10.5 | 31.9% | over_12.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.1% | over_14.5 | 34.6% | under_14.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 41.7% | under_10.5 | 58.3% | over_12.5 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 75.3% | over_14.5 | 13.0% | under_14.5 | 87.0% |
most
| home | 65.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.3% | away_+4.5 | 60.7% | home_-2.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.5% | home_-0.5 | 65.6% | away_+0.5 | 34.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.5% | away_-0.5 | 28.5% | home_+2.5 | 81.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.2% | home_+4.5 | 89.3% | away_-4.5 | 10.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.2% | under_6.5 | 31.8% | over_7.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.3% | over_8.5 | 43.3% | under_8.5 | 56.7% |
| over_9.5 | 32.1% | under_9.5 | 67.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.2% | under_3.5 | 33.8% | over_4.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.4% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.6% | under_3.5 | 55.4% | over_4.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.3% | over_5.5 | 15.7% | under_5.5 | 84.3% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 12.0% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.1% | away_+2.5 | 65.9% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.8% | home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.6% | away_-2.5 | 11.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.1% | under_2.5 | 28.9% | over_3.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.9% | over_4.5 | 30.9% | under_4.5 | 69.1% |
| over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 51.9% | under_1.5 | 48.1% | over_2.5 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.7% | under_1.5 | 42.3% | over_2.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.3% |
most
| home | 35.2% | draw | 21.6% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.8% | away_+1.5 | 82.2% | home_-0.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.8% | home_+0.5 | 56.8% | away_-0.5 | 43.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.1% | away_-1.5 | 23.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.7% | under_20.5 | 12.3% | over_22.5 | 78.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.7% | over_24.5 | 66.2% | under_24.5 | 33.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.8% | under_9.5 | 16.2% | over_11.5 | 67.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.7% | over_13.5 | 47.9% | under_13.5 | 52.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.2% | under_9.5 | 15.8% | over_11.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.0% | over_13.5 | 48.6% | under_13.5 | 51.4% |
most
| home | 46.0% | draw | 7.0% | away | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.6% | away_+3.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.0% | home_+2.5 | 66.5% | away_-2.5 | 33.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.0% | no | 91.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.9% | no | 98.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Metz predictions · Laval predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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