Monza vs Udinese: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Serie A

Monza

LWLLL

Full time2-3Sat, 29 Aug 202617:30UK

Udinese

WWLLD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Draw or Udinese

70%

Over 1.5 goals

58%

Monza or draw

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Monza 2-3 Udinese

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Udinese at 42.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 57.2% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 51.2% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

UdineseWin probability

42.0%

Top 3 convictions

Draw or Udinese71.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.41

Over 1.5 goals69.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.44

Monza or draw58.0%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

The model leans Udinese at 42% when Monza host Udinese in the Serie A on 29 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Bookmakers see it the same way, 40% on Udinese, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 49%. The run in: Monza arrive W1 D0 L5, Udinese W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Monza, 3 draws and 1 for Udinese, averaging 2.4 goals a game. For shots markets, Daniel Maldini is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, Monza carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals42.8%@ 2.34

Udinese win42.0%@ 2.38

Over 9.5 corners41.1%@ 2.43

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals57.2%@ 1.75

Not both teams to score51.2%@ 1.95

Over 8.5 corners50.9%@ 1.96

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.37

0-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.70

0-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Monza

29.0%-1.6%

Draw

29.0%-0.6%

Udinese

42.0%+2.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.9%

Good chance

Over 9.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 10.532.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.8%

Low chance

Most cornersMonza54.0%Udinese35.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.7%

Good chance

Over 24.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.6%2.542.8%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MonzaLWLLL

UdineseWWLLD

Last 5 meetings: Monza 1 · 3 draws · Udinese 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2025-05-11Udinese 1-2 Monza

2024-12-09Monza 1-2 Udinese

2024-02-03Udinese 0-0 Monza

2023-10-29Monza 1-1 Udinese

2023-04-08Udinese 2-2 Monza

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Monza

Udinese

League position#19 of 20#11 of 20

Record W-D-L0-0-10-1-0

Current streakL1D1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Daniel MaldiniMonza · key player

To score15.6%

@ 6.41

1+ on target48.6%

@ 2.06

2+ shots59.3%

@ 1.69

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.23

Florian ThauvinUdinese · key player

To score26.2%

@ 3.82

1+ on target64.8%

@ 1.54

2+ shots64.9%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 2.48SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.34

Milan DjuricMonza · in form

To score21.0%

@ 4.76

1+ on target44.3%

@ 2.26

2+ shots37.0%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 1.59SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.29

Lorenzo LuccaUdinese · in form

To score29.8%

@ 3.36

1+ on target55.4%

@ 1.81

2+ shots61.1%

@ 1.64

Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.45

KeitaMonza · in form

To score16.7%

@ 5.99

1+ on target36.6%

@ 2.73

2+ shots36.4%

@ 2.75

Shots/90 1.96SoT/90 0.7Goals/90 0.28

Keinan DavisUdinese · in form

To score20.8%

@ 4.81

1+ on target50.7%

@ 1.97

2+ shots45.9%

@ 2.18

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.34

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Monza win3.103.45

Draw3.203.45

Udinese win2.402.38

Over 2.5 goals2.202.34

Under 2.5 goals1.671.75

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Monza win3.41

Draw3.48

Udinese win2.38

Both teams to score2.05

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11

Over 1.5 goals1.44

Over 2.5 goals2.34

Over 3.5 goals4.55

Monza most3.41

Udinese most2.38

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.58

Over 8.5 corners1.92

Over 9.5 corners2.42

Over 10.5 corners3.15

Monza most1.85

Udinese most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40

Over 3.5 cards1.96

Over 4.5 cards3.12

Over 5.5 cards5.59

Monza most3.09

Udinese most2.14

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53

Over 7.5 SoT1.86

Over 8.5 SoT2.35

Over 9.5 SoT3.08

Monza most2.04

Udinese most2.55

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67

Over 24.5 shots2.10

Over 26.5 shots2.76

Over 28.5 shots3.83

Monza most1.63

Udinese most3.04

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.31

Over 22.5 fouls1.56

Over 24.5 fouls1.96

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	65.4%	Over 7.5	53.9%	Over 8.5	42.6%	Over 9.5	32.5%
Most: Monza	48.9%	Most: Udinese	39.2%
Monza Over 4.2	41.7%	Udinese Over 4.2	34.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	71.3%	Over 3.5	50.9%	Over 4.5	32.0%
Most: Monza	32.4%	Most: Udinese	46.7%
Monza Over 1.8	49.6%	Udinese Over 1.8	60.1%

Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Daniel Maldini	2.7	0.9	0.23	48.6%	59.3%	15.6%
Milan Djuric	1.59	0.72	0.29	44.3%	37.0%	21.0%
Keita	1.96	0.7	0.28	36.6%	36.4%	16.7%
Gianluca Caprari	1.62	0.62	0.17	29.3%	22.9%	9.1%
Samuele Birindelli	0.96	0.62	0.21	38.0%	17.0%	14.9%

Udinese: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Florian Thauvin	2.48	1.17	0.34	64.8%	64.9%	26.2%
Lorenzo Lucca	2.63	1.03	0.45	55.4%	61.1%	29.8%
Keinan Davis	2.26	1.03	0.34	50.7%	45.9%	20.8%
Nicolo Zaniolo	2.81	0.86	0.19	49.8%	65.8%	14.1%
Arthur Atta	1.97	0.64	0.12	36.7%	41.1%	8.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Monza clean sheet	26.5%
Udinese clean sheet	34.4%
Monza win to nil	16.7%
Udinese win to nil	24.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	29.3%	draw	28.7%	away	42.0%

double_chance

1X	58.0%	12	71.3%	X2	70.7%

dnb

home	41.1%	away	58.9%

btts

yes	48.8%	no	51.2%

clean_sheet

home	26.5%	away	34.5%

win_to_nil

home	16.7%	away	24.7%

winning_margin

home_by_1	17.8%	home_by_2	8.1%	home_by_3plus	3.4%
away_by_1	22.3%	away_by_2	12.6%	away_by_3plus	7.1%

correct_score

0-0	9.8%	0-1	11.5%	0-2	8.1%
0-3	3.6%	0-4	1.2%	0-5	0.3%
1-0	9.1%	1-1	13.6%	1-2	8.6%
1-3	3.8%	1-4	1.3%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	5.2%	2-1	6.9%	2-2	4.6%
2-3	2.0%	2-4	0.7%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	1.8%	3-1	2.4%	3-2	1.6%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.5%	4-1	0.7%	4-2	0.4%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.1%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.0%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.6%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.2%	under_0.5	9.8%	over_1.5	69.6%
under_1.5	30.4%	over_2.5	42.8%	under_2.5	57.2%
over_3.5	22.0%	under_3.5	78.0%	over_4.5	9.5%
under_4.5	90.5%	over_5.5	3.5%	under_5.5	96.5%

odd_even

odd	48.3%	even	51.7%

team_home

over_0.5	65.5%	under_0.5	34.5%	over_1.5	28.8%
under_1.5	71.2%	over_2.5	9.3%	under_2.5	90.7%

team_away

over_0.5	73.5%	under_0.5	26.5%	over_1.5	38.3%
under_1.5	61.7%	over_2.5	14.9%	under_2.5	85.1%

most

home	29.3%	draw	28.7%	away	42.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	3.4%	away_+2.5	96.6%	home_-1.5	11.5%
away_+1.5	88.5%	home_-0.5	29.3%	away_+0.5	70.7%
home_+0.5	58.0%	away_-0.5	42.0%	home_+1.5	80.3%
away_-1.5	19.7%	home_+2.5	92.9%	away_-2.5	7.1%

total_exact

exact_0	9.8%	exact_1	20.6%	exact_2	26.8%
exact_3	20.9%	exact_4	12.5%	exact_5	6.0%
exact_6	2.4%	exact_7plus	1.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	24.0%	draw	44.2%	away	31.9%

total

over_0.5	66.5%	under_0.5	33.5%	over_1.5	29.8%
under_1.5	70.2%	over_2.5	9.8%	under_2.5	90.2%

btts

yes	17.5%	no	82.5%

total_exact

exact_0	33.5%	exact_1	36.6%	exact_2	20.0%
exact_3	7.3%	exact_4plus	2.5%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	21.5%	draw	35.7%	away	42.8%

total

over_0.5	77.9%	under_0.5	22.2%	over_1.5	44.5%
under_1.5	55.5%	over_2.5	19.3%	under_2.5	80.7%

btts

yes	26.4%	no	73.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	15.2%	H/D	5.6%	H/A	3.2%
D/H	9.5%	D/D	15.8%	D/A	18.9%
A/H	1.3%	A/D	4.1%	A/A	26.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	63.2%	under_7.5	36.8%	over_8.5	52.1%
under_8.5	47.9%	over_9.5	41.4%	under_9.5	58.6%
over_10.5	31.7%	under_10.5	68.3%	over_11.5	23.5%
under_11.5	76.5%	over_12.5	16.9%	under_12.5	83.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.9%	under_3.5	34.1%	over_4.5	51.5%
under_4.5	48.5%	over_5.5	38.1%	under_5.5	61.9%

team_away

over_3.5	52.8%	under_3.5	47.2%	over_4.5	37.4%
under_4.5	62.6%	over_5.5	25.0%	under_5.5	75.0%

most

home	54.2%	draw	10.2%	away	35.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.2%	away_+3.5	74.8%	home_-1.5	43.8%
away_+1.5	56.2%	home_-0.5	54.2%	away_+0.5	45.8%
home_+0.5	64.4%	away_-0.5	35.6%	home_+1.5	73.7%
away_-1.5	26.3%	home_+3.5	87.5%	away_-3.5	12.5%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	59.7%	under_22.5	40.3%	over_24.5	47.7%
under_24.5	52.3%	over_26.5	36.3%	under_26.5	63.7%
over_28.5	26.1%	under_28.5	73.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	70.4%	under_10.5	29.6%	over_12.5	54.7%
under_12.5	45.3%	over_14.5	39.2%	under_14.5	60.8%

team_away

over_10.5	51.1%	under_10.5	48.9%	over_12.5	34.1%
under_12.5	65.9%	over_14.5	20.8%	under_14.5	79.2%

most

home	61.4%	draw	5.7%	away	32.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.4%	away_+4.5	62.6%	home_-2.5	49.3%
away_+2.5	50.7%	home_-0.5	61.4%	away_+0.5	38.6%
home_+0.5	67.1%	away_-0.5	32.9%	home_+2.5	77.3%
away_-2.5	22.7%	home_+4.5	85.4%	away_-4.5	14.6%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	65.4%	under_6.5	34.6%	over_7.5	53.9%
under_7.5	46.1%	over_8.5	42.6%	under_8.5	57.4%
over_9.5	32.5%	under_9.5	67.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	57.3%	under_3.5	42.7%	over_4.5	41.7%
under_4.5	58.3%	over_5.5	28.6%	under_5.5	71.4%

team_away

over_3.5	50.5%	under_3.5	49.5%	over_4.5	34.8%
under_4.5	65.2%	over_5.5	22.5%	under_5.5	77.5%

most

home	48.9%	draw	11.9%	away	39.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.8%	away_+2.5	73.2%	home_-0.5	48.9%
away_+0.5	51.1%	home_+0.5	60.8%	away_-0.5	39.2%
home_+2.5	80.7%	away_-2.5	19.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	71.4%	under_2.5	28.7%	over_3.5	50.9%
under_3.5	49.1%	over_4.5	32.0%	under_4.5	68.0%
over_5.5	17.9%	under_5.5	82.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	49.6%	under_1.5	50.4%	over_2.5	23.9%
under_2.5	76.1%

team_away

over_1.5	60.1%	under_1.5	39.9%	over_2.5	33.7%
under_2.5	66.3%

most

home	32.4%	draw	20.9%	away	46.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.2%	away_+1.5	83.8%	home_-0.5	32.4%
away_+0.5	67.6%	home_+0.5	53.3%	away_-0.5	46.7%
home_+1.5	72.9%	away_-1.5	27.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	76.3%	under_20.5	23.7%	over_22.5	64.2%
under_22.5	35.8%	over_24.5	50.9%	under_24.5	49.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	67.9%	under_9.5	32.1%	over_11.5	48.3%
under_11.5	51.7%	over_13.5	30.3%	under_13.5	69.7%

team_away

over_9.5	80.1%	under_9.5	19.9%	over_11.5	63.7%
under_11.5	36.3%	over_13.5	45.6%	under_13.5	54.4%

most

home	35.8%	draw	6.5%	away	57.8%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.1%	away_+3.5	80.9%	home_-0.5	35.8%
away_+0.5	64.3%	home_+2.5	55.7%	away_-2.5	44.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.1%	no	88.9%

home

yes	3.9%	no	96.1%

away

yes	7.5%	no	92.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Monza predictions · Udinese predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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