Marseille vs Strasbourg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Aug 2026

Ligue 1

Marseille

LDLWW

Full time4-0Fri, 21 Aug 202619:45UK

Strasbourg

WLDWW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Marseille or draw

64%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Marseille at 51.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 64.3% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 64.3% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

MarseilleWin probability

51.8%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.18

Marseille or draw73.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.36

Over 2.5 goals64.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Marseille heavy favourites at 52% when Marseille meet Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 on 21 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. 2) Mason Greenwood drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Marseille, 3 draws and 1 for Strasbourg, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Marseille W3 D1 L2, Strasbourg W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.9%@ 2.28

Over 10.5 corners33.8%@ 2.96

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82

Draw or Strasbourg48.2%@ 2.07

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.82

2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.64

2-0 correct score6.9%@ 14.56

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Marseille

51.8%

Draw

22.0%

Strasbourg

26.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.8%

High probability

Over 2.564.3%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.8%

Good chance

Over 9.543.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.1%

Low chance

Most cornersMarseille58.5%Strasbourg30.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.9%

Good chance

Over 26.538.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.8%2.564.3%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.564.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MarseilleLDLWW

StrasbourgWLDWW

Last 5 meetings: Marseille 1 · 3 draws · Strasbourg 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-14Marseille 2-2 Strasbourg

2025-09-26Strasbourg 1-2 Marseille

2025-01-19Marseille 1-1 Strasbourg

2024-09-29Strasbourg 1-0 Marseille

2024-01-12Marseille 1-1 Strasbourg

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Marseille

Strasbourg

League position#5 of 18#8 of 18

Record W-D-L18-5-1115-8-11

Current streakW2W2

Points per game1.741.56

Record, home vs away11-4-26-5-6

PPG, home vs away2.181.35

Goals scored per game1.851.71

Goals conceded per game1.321.38

Scored, home vs away2.411.65

Conceded, home vs away1.181.65

1st half goals per game0.760.74

2nd half goals per game1.090.97

Corners won per game5.24.2

Cards per game2.41.9

Fouls per game12.711.3

Red cards this season45

Shots per game15.111.5

Shots on target per game5.74.7

xG for per game2.041.67

xG against per game1.461.40

Over 2.5 rate

61.8%64.7%

BTTS rate

50.0%64.7%

Clean sheets

26.5%26.5%

Rates this season:MarseilleStrasbourg

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 51%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Mason GreenwoodMarseille · key player

To score42.8%

@ 2.34

1+ on target78.9%

@ 1.27

2+ shots87.4%

@ 1.14

Shots/90 4SoT/90 1.73Goals/90 0.62

Emanuel EmeghaStrasbourg · key player

To score39.5%

@ 2.53

1+ on target67.1%

@ 1.49

2+ shots63.1%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.61

Jonathan RoweMarseille · in form

To score9.8%

@ 10.20

1+ on target40.4%

@ 2.48

2+ shots41.3%

@ 2.42

Shots/90 4.53SoT/90 1.66Goals/90 0.33

Joaquín PanichelliStrasbourg · in form

To score44.5%

@ 2.25

1+ on target66.0%

@ 1.52

2+ shots63.2%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.65

Sepe Elye WahiMarseille · in form

To score15.2%

@ 6.58

1+ on target52.7%

@ 1.90

2+ shots38.5%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 2.83SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.35

Julio EncisoStrasbourg · in form

To score10.5%

@ 9.52

1+ on target55.6%

@ 1.80

2+ shots65.9%

@ 1.52

Shots/90 2.86SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Marseille win1.99

Draw4.35

Strasbourg win3.74

Both teams to score1.55

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18

Over 2.5 goals1.56

Over 3.5 goals2.37

Over 4.5 goals4.18

Marseille most1.99

Strasbourg most3.74

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45

Over 8.5 corners1.76

Over 9.5 corners2.26

Over 10.5 corners3.03

Marseille most1.71

Strasbourg most3.25

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39

Over 3.5 cards1.95

Over 4.5 cards3.14

Over 5.5 cards5.73

Marseille most2.50

Strasbourg most2.60

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22

Over 7.5 SoT1.39

Over 8.5 SoT1.65

Over 9.5 SoT2.05

Marseille most1.64

Strasbourg most3.56

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58

Over 24.5 shots1.97

Over 26.5 shots2.60

Over 28.5 shots3.64

Marseille most1.53

Strasbourg most3.47

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40

Over 22.5 fouls1.74

Over 24.5 fouls2.32

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	81.9%	Over 7.5	72.0%	Over 8.5	60.7%	Over 9.5	48.9%
Most: Marseille	60.9%	Most: Strasbourg	28.1%
Marseille Over 4.2	62.5%	Strasbourg Over 4.2	38.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	72.0%	Over 3.5	51.2%	Over 4.5	31.9%
Most: Marseille	40.0%	Most: Strasbourg	38.5%
Marseille Over 1.8	56.2%	Strasbourg Over 1.8	55.1%

Marseille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Mason Greenwood	4	1.73	0.62	78.9%	87.4%	42.8%
Jonathan Rowe	4.53	1.66	0.33	40.4%	41.3%	9.8%
Sepe Elye Wahi	2.83	1.59	0.35	52.7%	38.5%	15.2%
Amine Gouiri	3.32	1.54	0.68	67.9%	70.2%	39.4%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	2.6	1.39	0.43	65.6%	59.3%	28.1%

Strasbourg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Emanuel Emegha	2.6	1.35	0.61	67.1%	63.1%	39.5%
Joaquín Panichelli	2.37	1.19	0.65	66.0%	63.2%	44.5%
Julio Enciso	2.86	1.03	0.14	55.6%	65.9%	10.5%
Martial Godo	2.3	0.96	0.56	45.7%	42.9%	30.0%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw	1.78	0.82	0.27	29.7%	17.9%	11.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Marseille clean sheet	25.1%
Strasbourg clean sheet	14.4%
Marseille win to nil	20.9%
Strasbourg win to nil	10.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	50.3%	draw	23.0%	away	26.7%

double_chance

1X	73.3%	12	77.0%	X2	49.7%

dnb

home	65.3%	away	34.7%

btts

yes	64.3%	no	35.7%

clean_sheet

home	25.4%	away	14.4%

win_to_nil

home	21.3%	away	10.3%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.2%	home_by_2	15.4%	home_by_3plus	13.7%
away_by_1	14.9%	away_by_2	7.7%	away_by_3plus	4.2%

correct_score

0-0	4.1%	0-1	4.5%	0-2	3.4%
0-3	1.6%	0-4	0.5%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	6.6%	1-1	10.2%	1-2	6.7%
1-3	3.1%	1-4	1.1%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.9%	2-1	9.4%	2-2	6.4%
2-3	2.9%	2-4	1.0%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	4.4%	3-1	6.1%	3-2	4.2%
3-3	1.9%	3-4	0.7%	3-5	0.2%
4-0	2.2%	4-1	2.9%	4-2	2.0%
4-3	0.9%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.8%	5-1	1.1%	5-2	0.8%
5-3	0.4%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.9%	under_0.5	4.1%	over_1.5	84.8%
under_1.5	15.3%	over_2.5	64.3%	under_2.5	35.7%
over_3.5	42.2%	under_3.5	57.8%	over_4.5	23.9%
under_4.5	76.1%	over_5.5	11.8%	under_5.5	88.2%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	85.6%	under_0.5	14.4%	over_1.5	57.7%
under_1.5	42.3%	over_2.5	30.7%	under_2.5	69.3%

team_away

over_0.5	74.6%	under_0.5	25.4%	over_1.5	39.8%
under_1.5	60.2%	over_2.5	16.0%	under_2.5	84.0%

most

home	50.3%	draw	23.0%	away	26.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	13.7%	away_+2.5	86.3%	home_-1.5	29.1%
away_+1.5	70.9%	home_-0.5	50.3%	away_+0.5	49.7%
home_+0.5	73.3%	away_-0.5	26.7%	home_+1.5	88.1%
away_-1.5	11.9%	home_+2.5	95.9%	away_-2.5	4.2%

total_exact

exact_0	4.1%	exact_1	11.1%	exact_2	20.5%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	18.3%	exact_5	12.1%
exact_6	6.7%	exact_7plus	5.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.0%	draw	40.9%	away	24.1%

total

over_0.5	71.1%	under_0.5	28.9%	over_1.5	35.3%
under_1.5	64.8%	over_2.5	13.0%	under_2.5	87.0%

btts

yes	21.0%	no	79.0%

total_exact

exact_0	28.9%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.3%
exact_3	9.2%	exact_4plus	3.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	42.2%	draw	29.6%	away	28.1%

total

over_0.5	87.7%	under_0.5	12.3%	over_1.5	61.9%
under_1.5	38.1%	over_2.5	34.9%	under_2.5	65.1%

btts

yes	41.5%	no	58.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	27.3%	H/D	5.1%	H/A	2.6%
D/H	17.3%	D/D	12.1%	D/A	11.5%
A/H	3.7%	A/D	5.1%	A/A	15.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	68.9%	under_7.5	31.1%	over_8.5	56.7%
under_8.5	43.3%	over_9.5	44.3%	under_9.5	55.7%
over_10.5	33.0%	under_10.5	67.0%	over_11.5	23.3%
under_11.5	76.7%	over_12.5	15.7%	under_12.5	84.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.4%	under_3.5	26.6%	over_4.5	58.0%
under_4.5	42.0%	over_5.5	42.7%	under_5.5	57.3%

team_away

over_3.5	54.1%	under_3.5	46.0%	over_4.5	36.6%
under_4.5	63.4%	over_5.5	22.7%	under_5.5	77.3%

most

home	58.6%	draw	10.7%	away	30.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.5%	away_+3.5	73.5%	home_-1.5	47.3%
away_+1.5	52.7%	home_-0.5	58.6%	away_+0.5	41.4%
home_+0.5	69.3%	away_-0.5	30.7%	home_+1.5	78.5%
away_-1.5	21.5%	home_+3.5	91.2%	away_-3.5	8.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.5%	under_22.5	36.5%	over_24.5	50.9%
under_24.5	49.1%	over_26.5	38.5%	under_26.5	61.5%
over_28.5	27.5%	under_28.5	72.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.6%	under_10.5	24.4%	over_12.5	59.8%
under_12.5	40.3%	over_14.5	43.3%	under_14.5	56.8%

team_away

over_10.5	51.2%	under_10.5	48.8%	over_12.5	33.1%
under_12.5	66.9%	over_14.5	19.1%	under_14.5	80.9%

most

home	65.4%	draw	5.7%	away	28.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	40.3%	away_+4.5	59.7%	home_-2.5	53.0%
away_+2.5	47.0%	home_-0.5	65.4%	away_+0.5	34.6%
home_+0.5	71.2%	away_-0.5	28.8%	home_+2.5	81.1%
away_-2.5	18.9%	home_+4.5	88.5%	away_-4.5	11.5%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	81.9%	under_6.5	18.1%	over_7.5	72.0%
under_7.5	28.0%	over_8.5	60.7%	under_8.5	39.3%
over_9.5	48.9%	under_9.5	51.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	77.3%	under_3.5	22.7%	over_4.5	62.5%
under_4.5	37.5%	over_5.5	47.0%	under_5.5	53.0%

team_away

over_3.5	56.7%	under_3.5	43.3%	over_4.5	38.7%
under_4.5	61.3%	over_5.5	24.0%	under_5.5	76.0%

most

home	60.9%	draw	11.0%	away	28.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	37.2%	away_+2.5	62.8%	home_-0.5	60.9%
away_+0.5	39.2%	home_+0.5	71.9%	away_-0.5	28.1%
home_+2.5	88.2%	away_-2.5	11.8%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	72.0%	under_2.5	28.0%	over_3.5	51.2%
under_3.5	48.8%	over_4.5	31.9%	under_4.5	68.1%
over_5.5	17.4%	under_5.5	82.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	56.2%	under_1.5	43.8%	over_2.5	29.2%
under_2.5	70.8%

team_away

over_1.5	55.1%	under_1.5	44.9%	over_2.5	28.2%
under_2.5	71.8%

most

home	40.0%	draw	21.5%	away	38.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.5%	away_+1.5	78.5%	home_-0.5	40.0%
away_+0.5	60.0%	home_+0.5	61.5%	away_-0.5	38.5%
home_+1.5	79.6%	away_-1.5	20.4%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	71.4%	under_20.5	28.7%	over_22.5	57.5%
under_22.5	42.5%	over_24.5	43.2%	under_24.5	56.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.5%	under_9.5	23.5%	over_11.5	57.7%
under_11.5	42.3%	over_13.5	38.3%	under_13.5	61.7%

team_away

over_9.5	65.9%	under_9.5	34.1%	over_11.5	44.9%
under_11.5	55.2%	over_13.5	26.4%	under_13.5	73.6%

most

home	55.4%	draw	7.1%	away	37.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	34.1%	away_+3.5	65.9%	home_-0.5	55.4%
away_+0.5	44.6%	home_+2.5	75.3%	away_-2.5	24.7%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	14.5%	no	85.5%

home

yes	7.0%	no	93.0%

away

yes	8.0%	no	92.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Marseille predictions · Strasbourg predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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