Süper Lig
Kasimpasa vs 
Trabzonspor Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 67.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.5% for over 2.5 to 31.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. Between the two sides, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 19.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.0% | 69.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.8%
43.8%
63.2%
36.3%
Card handicap
| Kasimpasa line | Kasimpasa | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| -0.5 | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +1.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.5% | 35.5% |
This season (2025/26)
2.9Kasimpasa cards per game15.5Kasimpasa fouls per game1.8Trabzonspor cards per game12.1Trabzonspor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor. The model leans toward Kasimpasa for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.0%Over 3.5 cards24.8%Any red card69.8%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards63.2%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards77.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards sits at 69.8% and Trabzonspor at 63.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.8% (Kasimpasa 17.8%, Trabzonspor 8.5%). This season Kasimpasa have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Trabzonspor 1.8.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.0% for Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor.
Will there be a red card in Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 45.5%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.