Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs 
Casa Pia Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Gil Vicente or Draw (83.0%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 83.0%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Gil Vicente are favoured at 58.2%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gil Vicente by 1 | 25.2% |
| Gil Vicente by 2 | 18.2% |
| Gil Vicente by 3+ | 14.8% |
| Casa Pia by 1 | 11.7% |
| Casa Pia by 2 | 4.1% |
| Casa Pia by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
Goal handicap
| Gil Vicente line | Gil Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -1.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| -0.5 | 58.2% | 41.9% |
| +0.5 | 83.0% | 17.1% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Gil Vicente or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
46.2%Both Teams to Score
46.3%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Gil Vicente are favoured at 58.2%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gil Vicente 1 · 3 draws · Casa Pia 1 · 1.6 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 83.0%; it landed, final score 2-0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.