Fiorentina vs Torino prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

Serie A

Fiorentina vs Torino Both Teams to Score

2026-09-05 · 14:00
Both Teams to Score53.2%Both teams to score · Yes

Result

Fiorentina 1-2 Torino
0 goals before half-time (Fiorentina 0, Torino 0)
✓ Yes✕ Yes

We called Yes at 53.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.6% and it missed (0 in the match).

Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 53.2%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
53%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 53.2%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Fiorentina have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, Torino 1.4 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.0% for over 2.5 and 73.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.4 goals a game. Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5, Torino in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes53.2%

No46.8%

Over 2.5 · context48.0%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Fiorentina scored

0.6

Fiorentina conceded

1.6

Torino scored

1.4

Torino conceded

1.8

Each team to score

Fiorentina to score74.8%

Fiorentina 2+ goals40.1%

Torino to score70.3%

Torino 2+ goals34.3%

By half

Both score in 1st half18.1%

Both score in 2nd half28.3%

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

8.1%

0

18.1%

1

25.8%

2

21.7%

3

14.1%

4

11.7%

5+

In-depth analysis

40.9%Favoured: Fiorentina
53.2%Both Teams to Score
48.0%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 48.0% for three or more goals and 73.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Fiorentina favoured at 40.9%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 53.2% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 48.0% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutFiorentina are the model’s pick on the result at 40.9%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Fiorentina40.9%

Draw27.7%

Torino31.4%

The model leans Fiorentina to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

M

Moise KeanFiorentina · 3.86 shots/90
To score 36.4%

D

Duván ZapataTorino · 2.7 shots/90
To score 13.9%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

FiorentinaDWDLL
TorinoWLDLL

Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina 1 · 4 draws · Torino 0 · 1.4 goals/game.

Recent trends

FiorentinaBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 2/5
TorinoBTTS 5/5Over 2.5 5/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Did both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 53.2%. Both teams scored, final score 1-2.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 26,581 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

More Serie A, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.