Estoril vs Rio Ave: model prediction
Primeira LigaOver 1.5 goals
Estoril or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Estoril at 51.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.0% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 55.7% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Estoril or Rio Ave? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Estoril heavy favourites at 51% when Estoril meet Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga on 22 August 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 51%. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 2 wins for Estoril, 2 draws and 1 for Rio Ave over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Estoril W0 D3 L3, Rio Ave W0 D2 L4. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.3%+0.3%
24.9%-1.4%
23.9%+1.2%
value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Estoril 2 · 2 draws · Rio Ave 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Estoril
Rio AveBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.4% | Over 7.5 | 59.0% | Over 8.5 | 46.3% | Over 9.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Estoril | 50.0% | Most: Rio Ave | 37.2% | ||||
| Estoril Over 4.2 | 45.5% | Rio Ave Over 4.2 | 36.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.3% | Over 3.5 | 66.8% | Over 4.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Estoril | 37.1% | Most: Rio Ave | 43.7% | ||
| Estoril Over 1.8 | 64.3% | Rio Ave Over 1.8 | 68.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Estoril clean sheet | 32.7% |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 17.7% |
| Estoril win to nil | 26.3% |
| Rio Ave win to nil | 11.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 51.3% | draw | 24.9% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 76.1% | 12 | 75.1% | X2 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 68.3% | away | 31.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.7% | no | 44.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.9% | away | 17.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.5% | away | 11.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.9% | home_by_2 | 15.9% | home_by_3plus | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.5% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 5.9% | 0-2 | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.0% | 3-1 | 5.6% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.2% | 4-1 | 2.4% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.8% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.9% | over_2.5 | 54.0% | under_2.5 | 46.0% |
| over_3.5 | 31.7% | under_3.5 | 68.3% | over_4.5 | 15.9% |
| under_4.5 | 84.1% | over_5.5 | 6.9% | under_5.5 | 93.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 82.2% | under_0.5 | 17.8% | over_1.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.4% | over_2.5 | 25.1% | under_2.5 | 75.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.1% | under_0.5 | 32.9% | over_1.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.5% | over_2.5 | 10.2% | under_2.5 | 89.8% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 24.9% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.6% | away_+2.5 | 87.5% | home_-1.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 71.6% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% | away_+0.5 | 48.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 76.1% | away_-0.5 | 23.9% | home_+1.5 | 90.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.2% | away_-2.5 | 2.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.5% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.8% | exact_5 | 9.0% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 38.9% | away | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.3% | under_0.5 | 26.7% | over_1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.0% | over_2.5 | 14.7% | under_2.5 | 85.3% |
btts
| yes | 22.1% | no | 77.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.7% | exact_1 | 35.3% | exact_2 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.2% | exact_4plus | 4.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.8% | draw | 35.4% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.0% | under_0.5 | 22.0% | over_1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.4% | over_2.5 | 19.4% | under_2.5 | 80.6% |
btts
| yes | 26.3% | no | 73.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 34.0% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.0% | D/D | 13.8% | D/A | 8.1% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 13.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.8% | under_7.5 | 29.2% | over_8.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.4% | over_9.5 | 48.2% | under_9.5 | 51.8% |
| over_10.5 | 37.3% | under_10.5 | 62.7% | over_11.5 | 27.8% |
| under_11.5 | 72.2% | over_12.5 | 19.9% | under_12.5 | 80.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.0% | under_3.5 | 30.0% | over_4.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.8% | over_5.5 | 41.1% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.8% | under_3.5 | 40.2% | over_4.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.2% | over_5.5 | 30.0% | under_5.5 | 70.0% |
most
| home | 52.4% | draw | 10.1% | away | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.8% | home_-0.5 | 52.4% | away_+0.5 | 47.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.5% | away_-0.5 | 37.5% | home_+1.5 | 71.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.2% | home_+3.5 | 86.2% | away_-3.5 | 13.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 53.4% | under_22.5 | 46.6% | over_24.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.7% | over_26.5 | 30.3% | under_26.5 | 69.7% |
| over_28.5 | 21.0% | under_28.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.2% | under_10.5 | 33.8% | over_12.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.2% | over_14.5 | 34.4% | under_14.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.9% | under_10.5 | 53.1% | over_12.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.8% | over_14.5 | 17.6% | under_14.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 60.9% | draw | 5.9% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.2% | away_+4.5 | 63.8% | home_-2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.9% | away_+0.5 | 39.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% | home_+2.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.7% | home_+4.5 | 85.6% | away_-4.5 | 14.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.4% | under_6.5 | 28.6% | over_7.5 | 59.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 41.0% | over_8.5 | 46.3% | under_8.5 | 53.7% |
| over_9.5 | 34.5% | under_9.5 | 65.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.1% | under_3.5 | 36.9% | over_4.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.4% | over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.7% | over_5.5 | 22.1% | under_5.5 | 77.9% |
most
| home | 50.0% | draw | 12.8% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.9% | away_+2.5 | 74.1% | home_-0.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+0.5 | 62.8% | away_-0.5 | 37.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.6% | away_-2.5 | 16.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.3% | under_2.5 | 16.7% | over_3.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 47.9% | under_4.5 | 52.1% |
| over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.3% | under_1.5 | 35.7% | over_2.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 68.5% | under_1.5 | 31.5% | over_2.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.7% |
most
| home | 37.1% | draw | 19.2% | away | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.8% | away_+1.5 | 79.2% | home_-0.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.9% | home_+0.5 | 56.3% | away_-0.5 | 43.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.9% | away_-1.5 | 26.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 82.4% | under_20.5 | 17.6% | over_22.5 | 71.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 28.1% | over_24.5 | 59.6% | under_24.5 | 40.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.5% | under_9.5 | 17.5% | over_11.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.0% | over_13.5 | 49.2% | under_13.5 | 50.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.3% | under_9.5 | 24.7% | over_11.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 42.8% | over_13.5 | 38.8% | under_13.5 | 61.2% |
most
| home | 54.1% | draw | 6.5% | away | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 34.8% | away_+3.5 | 65.2% | home_-0.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.9% | home_+2.5 | 72.5% | away_-2.5 | 27.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.5% | no | 86.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.7% | no | 95.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.3% | no | 90.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Estoril predictions · Rio Ave predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets