Ligue 1Estac Troyes vs 
Paris FC Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.1% for over 2.5 and 76.8% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
| 1-0 | 7.1% |
| 0-0 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 5.6% |
Score probability grid
| Estac Troyes \ Paris FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Estac Troyes goals, columns = Paris FC. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 52.1% for three or more goals and 76.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Paris FC favoured at 45.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
The model's most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC is 1-1 at 12.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Ligue 1, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.