Estac Troyes vs Paris FC prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

By /
Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Clean Sheet

2026-08-22 · 19:45
Clean Sheet29.3%Most likely clean sheet
Best predictionMost likely clean sheet · 29.3%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
29%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Most likely clean sheet at 29.3%, its strongest read on the Clean Sheet market. For context, Paris FC are favoured at 45.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Clean Sheet

Estac Troyes clean sheet21.5%

Paris FC clean sheet29.3%

Probability each side concedes zero, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

45.4%Favoured: Paris FC
56.0%Both Teams to Score
52.1%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 29.3% on Clean Sheet, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a balanced game from the 52.1% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutParis FC are the model’s pick on the result at 45.4%, a lean on probability, never on price.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Estac Troyes28.7%

Draw25.9%

Paris FC45.4%

The model leans Paris FC to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

L

Luca KoleoshoParis FC · 2.96 shots/90
To score 17.0%

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Paris FCWLWLW

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Clean Sheet-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0097Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
54,671Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Ligue 1, Clean Sheet

Marseille vs StrasbourgLens vs AuxerreLe Mans vs BrestNice vs LorientToulouse vs LyonAngers vs Lille

Related

Ligue 1Estac TroyesParis FCTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.