Elche vs Sociedad prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Elche vs Sociedad: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

La Liga
Elche

WDDLL

Full time2-3Mon, 7 Sep 202620:30UK28°C · Clear
Sociedad

DLLWD

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Elche or draw

60%

Both teams to score

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Elche 2-3 Sociedad
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Elche at 42.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 56.5% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.8% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 65.9% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 59.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.1% and it missed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 65.9% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.9% and it landed (33 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 65.2% and it landed (16 shots on target). We called No at 82.1% and it missed.

Match data Elche Sociedad
Goals, 1st half 0 2
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 20 13
Shots, 1st half 4 6
Shots, 2nd half 16 7
Shots on target 10 6
Corners 6 7
Yellow cards 4 1
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 9 8
Expected goals (xG) 2.87 0.88

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ElcheWin probability
42.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Elche or draw67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Both teams to score59.8%Good chancePays @ 1.67

Model read

▾

The model leans Elche at 43% when Elche host Sociedad in the La Liga on 7 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) Form guide over the last six: Elche W1 D2 L3, Sociedad W1 D2 L3. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Elche, 1 draws and 4 for Sociedad at 2.4 goals per match. Schedule edge: Elche have had 6 more days of rest than Sociedad. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 28 degrees of heat. For shots markets, Lucas Cepeda is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17
Over 10.5 corners35.9%@ 2.79
Sociedad win32.1%@ 3.12
Medium risk

Draw or Sociedad57.2%@ 1.75
Over 8.5 corners57.1%@ 1.75
Over 2.5 goals56.5%@ 1.77
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.40
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.22
1-2 correct score7.8%@ 12.84

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Elche

42.8%

Draw

25.1%

Sociedad

32.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.8%

High probability

Over 2.556.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.1%

Good chance

Over 9.546.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.9%

Low chance

Most cornersElche54.8%Sociedad34.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.9%

Good chance

Over 26.538.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.8%2.556.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.8%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ElcheWDDLL
SociedadDLLWD

Last 5 meetings: Elche 0 · 1 draws · Sociedad 4 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-07Sociedad 3-1 Elche
2025-11-07Elche 1-1 Sociedad
2023-03-19Sociedad 2-0 Elche
2022-08-27Elche 0-1 Sociedad
2022-04-10Elche 1-2 Sociedad

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ElcheSociedad
League position#19 of 20#11 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-21-1-2
Current streakL2D1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-2
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lucas CepedaElche · key player
To score7.5%

@ 13.33

1+ on target41.7%

@ 2.40

2+ shots40.3%

@ 2.48

Shots/90 3.54SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.2
Orri ÓskarssonSociedad · key player
To score24.5%

@ 4.08

1+ on target45.7%

@ 2.19

2+ shots32.7%

@ 3.06

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.58
Facundo BuonanotteElche · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target31.7%

@ 3.15

2+ shots33.9%

@ 2.95

Shots/90 2.47SoT/90 0.78Goals/90 0.24
Mikel OyarzabalSociedad · in form
To score28.9%

@ 3.46

1+ on target54.4%

@ 1.84

2+ shots53.7%

@ 1.86

Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.42
Tete MorenteElche · in form
To score6.2%

@ 16.13

1+ on target23.3%

@ 4.29

2+ shots28.9%

@ 3.46

Shots/90 1.49SoT/90 0.37Goals/90 0.09
Gonçalo GuedesSociedad · in form
To score14.8%

@ 6.76

1+ on target36.8%

@ 2.72

2+ shots35.6%

@ 2.81

Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.32

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Elche win2.40
Draw3.92
Sociedad win3.05
Both teams to score1.67

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.77
Over 3.5 goals2.93
Elche most2.40
Sociedad most3.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.69
Over 9.5 corners2.13
Over 10.5 corners2.83
Elche most1.82
Sociedad most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.21
Over 3.5 cards1.52
Over 4.5 cards2.11
Over 5.5 cards3.25
Elche most2.77
Sociedad most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.46
Elche most1.74
Sociedad most3.28

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.97
Over 26.5 shots2.59
Over 28.5 shots3.62
Elche most1.53
Sociedad most3.44

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.30
Over 24.5 fouls1.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.7% Over 7.5 65.2% Over 8.5 52.8% Over 9.5 40.6%
Most: Elche 57.5% Most: Sociedad 30.5%
Elche Over 4.2 55.1% Sociedad Over 4.2 35.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.4% Over 3.5 65.8% Over 4.5 47.4%
Most: Elche 36.1% Most: Sociedad 45.1%
Elche Over 1.8 62.4% Sociedad Over 1.8 68.3%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lucas Cepeda 3.54 1.38 0.2 41.7% 40.3% 7.5%
Facundo Buonanotte 2.47 0.78 0.24 31.7% 33.9% 11.1%
Tete Morente 1.49 0.37 0.09 23.3% 28.9% 6.2%
Gonzalo Villar 0.73 0.36 0.09 23.2% 10.1% 6.4%
German Valera 0.85 0.27 0.11 18.9% 14.2% 8.2%

Sociedad: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Orri Óskarsson 2.42 1.26 0.58 45.7% 32.7% 24.5%
Mikel Oyarzabal 2.22 0.97 0.42 54.4% 53.7% 28.9%
Gonçalo Guedes 2.51 0.92 0.32 36.8% 35.6% 14.8%
Arsen Zakharyan 3.27 0.91 0.18 21.2% 21.2% 4.6%
Carlos Soler 1.38 0.61 0.11 32.7% 22.6% 6.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Elche clean sheet 25.1%
Sociedad clean sheet 20.7%
Elche win to nil 19.3%
Sociedad win to nil 14.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.6% draw 25.5% away 32.8%
double_chance
1X 67.2% 12 74.5% X2 58.4%
dnb
home 55.9% away 44.1%
btts
yes 59.8% no 40.3%
clean_sheet
home 25.3% away 20.8%
win_to_nil
home 19.5% away 15.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.5% home_by_2 12.6% home_by_3plus 8.6%
away_by_1 17.8% away_by_2 9.7% away_by_3plus 5.4%
correct_score
0-0 5.8% 0-1 6.7% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.7% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.5% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.2% under_0.5 5.8% over_1.5 79.8%
under_1.5 20.2% over_2.5 56.5% under_2.5 43.5%
over_3.5 34.1% under_3.5 65.9% over_4.5 17.6%
under_4.5 82.4% over_5.5 7.9% under_5.5 92.1%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 79.2% under_0.5 20.8% over_1.5 46.6%
under_1.5 53.4% over_2.5 21.0% under_2.5 79.0%
team_away
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 39.9%
under_1.5 60.1% over_2.5 16.0% under_2.5 84.0%
most
home 41.6% draw 25.5% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.6% away_+2.5 91.5% home_-1.5 21.2%
away_+1.5 78.8% home_-0.5 41.6% away_+0.5 58.4%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 85.0%
away_-1.5 15.0% home_+2.5 94.6% away_-2.5 5.4%
total_exact
exact_0 5.8% exact_1 14.3% exact_2 23.3%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.7%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.7% draw 39.2% away 31.1%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.9%
under_1.5 61.1% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 24.0% no 76.1%
total_exact
exact_0 26.1% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.0% draw 33.6% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 81.7% under_0.5 18.3% over_1.5 50.6%
under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.2% under_2.5 75.8%
btts
yes 31.9% no 68.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.7% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.7%
D/H 16.1% D/D 13.2% D/A 10.0%
A/H 3.8% A/D 6.5% A/A 20.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.3% under_7.5 28.7% over_8.5 59.3%
under_8.5 40.7% over_9.5 46.9% under_9.5 53.1%
over_10.5 35.3% under_10.5 64.7% over_11.5 25.2%
under_11.5 74.8% over_12.5 17.1% under_12.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.2%
under_4.5 42.8% over_5.5 41.8% under_5.5 58.3%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 41.4%
under_4.5 58.6% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.3%
most
home 54.9% draw 10.8% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.8% away_+3.5 76.2% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.9% away_+0.5 45.1%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+1.5 75.4%
away_-1.5 24.6% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.4% under_22.5 36.6% over_24.5 50.9%
under_24.5 49.1% over_26.5 38.6% under_26.5 61.4%
over_28.5 27.6% under_28.5 72.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.4% under_10.5 24.6% over_12.5 59.6%
under_12.5 40.4% over_14.5 43.2% under_14.5 56.8%
team_away
over_10.5 51.3% under_10.5 48.7% over_12.5 33.3%
under_12.5 66.7% over_14.5 19.3% under_14.5 80.7%
most
home 65.2% draw 5.7% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.2% away_+4.5 59.8% home_-2.5 52.8%
away_+2.5 47.2% home_-0.5 65.2% away_+0.5 34.8%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+2.5 80.8%
away_-2.5 19.2% home_+4.5 88.3% away_-4.5 11.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.7% under_6.5 23.3% over_7.5 65.2%
under_7.5 34.8% over_8.5 52.8% under_8.5 47.2%
over_9.5 40.6% under_9.5 59.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.7% under_3.5 28.3% over_4.5 55.1%
under_4.5 44.9% over_5.5 39.0% under_5.5 61.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.7% under_3.5 46.4% over_4.5 35.4%
under_4.5 64.6% over_5.5 21.1% under_5.5 78.9%
most
home 57.5% draw 12.0% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.8% away_+2.5 67.3% home_-0.5 57.5%
away_+0.5 42.5% home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5%
home_+2.5 87.5% away_-2.5 12.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.4% under_2.5 17.6% over_3.5 65.9%
under_3.5 34.2% over_4.5 47.4% under_4.5 52.6%
over_5.5 30.8% under_5.5 69.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.4% under_1.5 37.6% over_2.5 36.2%
under_2.5 63.8%
team_away
over_1.5 68.3% under_1.5 31.7% over_2.5 42.8%
under_2.5 57.2%
most
home 36.1% draw 18.8% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.3% away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1%
home_+1.5 72.4% away_-1.5 27.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.3% under_20.5 13.7% over_22.5 76.8%
under_22.5 23.2% over_24.5 64.9% under_24.5 35.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.4% under_9.5 22.7% over_11.5 59.1%
under_11.5 40.9% over_13.5 39.9% under_13.5 60.1%
team_away
over_9.5 86.7% under_9.5 13.3% over_11.5 72.8%
under_11.5 27.3% over_13.5 55.2% under_13.5 44.8%
most
home 36.1% draw 6.5% away 57.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.5% away_+3.5 80.5% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+2.5 56.0% away_-2.5 44.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.9% no 82.1%
home
yes 11.5% no 88.5%
away
yes 7.2% no 92.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Elche predictions · Sociedad predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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