League TwoChesterfield vs Gillingham Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 55.7% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 87.9% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. Head to head on cards, Gillingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 19.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.8%
21.9%
67.9%
41.5%
Card handicap
| Chesterfield line | Chesterfield | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| +0.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| +1.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chesterfield vs Gillingham. It tips Gillingham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.7%Over 3.5 cards12.1%Any red card47.8%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards67.9%Gillingham over 1.5 cards51.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Chesterfield over 1.5 cards sits at 47.8% and Gillingham at 67.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Chesterfield 4.4%, Gillingham 8.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.7% for Chesterfield vs Gillingham.
Will there be a red card in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gillingham to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.