Celta vs Osasuna: model prediction
La LigaCelta or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Celta at 48.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.0% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 50.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Celta at 48% when Celta host Osasuna in the La Liga on 27 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 48% on Celta, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Celta, 0 draws and 2 for Osasuna, averaging 3.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Celta against W0 D1 L5 for Osasuna. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
48.5%+0.5%
27.5%-1.1%
24.0%+0.6%
value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Celta 3 · 0 draws · Osasuna 2 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Celta
OsasunaPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 6.54
@ 2.54
@ 3.86
@ 2.45
@ 1.55
@ 1.33
@ 6.17
@ 1.67
@ 1.45
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.7% | Over 7.5 | 58.1% | Over 8.5 | 45.2% | Over 9.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta | 61.1% | Most: Osasuna | 26.9% | ||||
| Celta Over 4.2 | 52.3% | Osasuna Over 4.2 | 27.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.2% | Over 3.5 | 64.0% | Over 4.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta | 34.3% | Most: Osasuna | 46.6% | ||
| Celta Over 1.8 | 60.0% | Osasuna Over 1.8 | 68.2% |
Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul García | 3.68 | 1.87 | 0.62 | 39.4% | 25.9% | 15.3% |
| Ante Budimir | 3.06 | 1.17 | 0.59 | 64.6% | 75.4% | 40.8% |
| Víctor Muñoz | 2.7 | 1.03 | 0.2 | 59.8% | 68.9% | 16.2% |
| Kike Barja | 1.62 | 0.68 | 0.27 | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| Bryan Zaragoza | 1.93 | 0.61 | 0.05 | 38.1% | 44.9% | 3.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Celta clean sheet | 36.0% |
|---|---|
| Osasuna clean sheet | 22.4% |
| Celta win to nil | 27.3% |
| Osasuna win to nil | 13.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.7% | draw | 27.2% | away | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.9% | 12 | 72.8% | X2 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.5% | away | 34.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.1% | no | 49.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.2% | away | 22.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.5% | away | 13.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 14.6% | home_by_3plus | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.7% | away_by_2 | 6.8% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 6.3% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.5% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.8% | over_2.5 | 46.0% | under_2.5 | 54.0% |
| over_3.5 | 24.6% | under_3.5 | 75.4% | over_4.5 | 11.1% |
| under_4.5 | 88.9% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.6% | under_0.5 | 22.4% | over_1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.9% | over_2.5 | 19.1% | under_2.5 | 80.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.8% | under_0.5 | 36.2% | over_1.5 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.9% | over_2.5 | 8.4% | under_2.5 | 91.6% |
most
| home | 47.7% | draw | 27.2% | away | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.7% | away_+2.5 | 90.3% | home_-1.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 75.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.7% | away_+0.5 | 52.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.9% | away_-0.5 | 25.1% | home_+1.5 | 90.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.7% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.5% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.3% | draw | 46.9% | away | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.5% | over_1.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
btts
| yes | 14.9% | no | 85.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.5% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.9% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 46.9% | draw | 34.3% | away | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.9% | under_0.5 | 21.1% | over_1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.9% | over_2.5 | 20.6% | under_2.5 | 79.4% |
btts
| yes | 26.5% | no | 73.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.7% | H/D | 3.6% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 22.0% | D/D | 16.1% | D/A | 8.9% |
| A/H | 3.7% | A/D | 5.7% | A/A | 13.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.2% | under_7.5 | 30.8% | over_8.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.1% | over_9.5 | 44.6% | under_9.5 | 55.4% |
| over_10.5 | 33.1% | under_10.5 | 66.9% | over_11.5 | 23.4% |
| under_11.5 | 76.6% | over_12.5 | 15.7% | under_12.5 | 84.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.8% | under_3.5 | 26.2% | over_4.5 | 58.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.4% | over_5.5 | 43.3% | under_5.5 | 56.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.8% | under_3.5 | 46.2% | over_4.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.6% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 59.1% | draw | 10.6% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.0% | away_+3.5 | 73.0% | home_-1.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.1% | home_-0.5 | 59.1% | away_+0.5 | 40.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% | home_+1.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.2% | home_+3.5 | 91.4% | away_-3.5 | 8.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.1% | under_22.5 | 42.9% | over_24.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.7% | over_26.5 | 32.4% | under_26.5 | 67.6% |
| over_28.5 | 22.3% | under_28.5 | 77.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.4% | under_10.5 | 28.6% | over_12.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.2% | over_14.5 | 38.4% | under_14.5 | 61.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.8% | under_10.5 | 53.2% | over_12.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.8% | over_14.5 | 16.3% | under_14.5 | 83.7% |
most
| home | 64.8% | draw | 5.9% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.3% | away_+4.5 | 60.7% | home_-2.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.9% | home_-0.5 | 64.8% | away_+0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.7% | away_-0.5 | 29.3% | home_+2.5 | 80.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.2% | home_+4.5 | 88.5% | away_-4.5 | 11.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.7% | under_6.5 | 29.3% | over_7.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 41.9% | over_8.5 | 45.2% | under_8.5 | 54.8% |
| over_9.5 | 33.3% | under_9.5 | 66.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.3% | under_3.5 | 30.7% | over_4.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.7% | over_5.5 | 36.3% | under_5.5 | 63.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.1% | under_3.5 | 54.9% | over_4.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.4% | over_5.5 | 15.1% | under_5.5 | 84.9% |
most
| home | 61.1% | draw | 12.0% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 35.2% | away_+2.5 | 64.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.9% | home_+0.5 | 73.1% | away_-0.5 | 26.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.0% | away_-2.5 | 10.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.2% | under_2.5 | 18.8% | over_3.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 36.0% | over_4.5 | 45.2% | under_4.5 | 54.8% |
| over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.0% | under_1.5 | 40.0% | over_2.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 68.2% | under_1.5 | 31.8% | over_2.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.6% |
most
| home | 34.3% | draw | 19.1% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.7% | away_+1.5 | 81.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.7% | home_+0.5 | 53.4% | away_-0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.5% | away_-1.5 | 28.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.7% | under_20.5 | 23.3% | over_22.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 36.0% | over_24.5 | 50.1% | under_24.5 | 49.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.4% | under_9.5 | 30.6% | over_11.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.1% | over_13.5 | 30.1% | under_13.5 | 69.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.3% | under_9.5 | 19.7% | over_11.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.0% | over_13.5 | 43.9% | under_13.5 | 56.1% |
most
| home | 36.6% | draw | 6.9% | away | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.1% | away_+3.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.4% | home_+2.5 | 57.5% | away_-2.5 | 42.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.9% | no | 82.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.7% | no | 87.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Celta predictions · Osasuna predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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