La LigaAtl. Madrid vs 
Malaga Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06Malaga xG created/game
1.93Malaga xG conceded/gameRecent xG created & conceded (per game)
1.06
1.93
Malaga have created 1.06 xG and scored 0.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
In-depth analysis
52.2%Both Teams to Score47.9%Over 2.5 goalsEvery figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Match outlook
The model leans Atl. Madrid to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.