Super League Greece
Asteras Tripolis vs 
Iraklis Correct Score
Result
Final score 0-2. The model gave that exact scoreline 4.2%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.1% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Asteras Tripolis have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Iraklis 1.4 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 43.5% for over 2.5 and 70.2% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-2 | 6.0% |
| 3-0 | 4.5% |
Score probability grid
| Asteras Tripolis \ Iraklis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | · | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Asteras Tripolis goals, columns = Iraklis. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
48.1%Both Teams to Score43.5%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 43.5% for three or more goals and 70.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Asteras Tripolis favoured at 47.7%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1 · 2 draws · Iraklis 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis?
Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis finished 0-2. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.1%; it gave the actual 0-2 a 4.2% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Super League Greece, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.