Ligue 2Annecy vs 
Metz Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.1% for over 2.5 to 15.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. On the card count, Annecy are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.9% | 84.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.9%
28.9%
52.1%
25.5%
Card handicap
| Annecy line | Annecy | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| -0.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| +0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| +1.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.8% | 12.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 78.4% | 21.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 66.2% | 33.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Annecy vs Metz. It tips Annecy for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.9%Over 3.5 cards20.4%Any red card55.9%Annecy over 1.5 cards52.1%Metz over 1.5 cards78.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Annecy over 1.5 cards sits at 55.9% and Metz at 52.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.4% (Annecy 8.8%, Metz 12.8%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Annecy vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.9% for Annecy vs Metz.
Will there be a red card in Annecy vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Annecy vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Annecy to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.