Braunschweig vs Hertha: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Braunschweig or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Braunschweig at 36.5%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed (8 goals). We called Yes at 55.5% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Braunschweig and Hertha almost evenly, Braunschweig marginally on top at 36%. Our number sits above the market's 32% for Braunschweig. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Braunschweig, 2 draws and 3 for Hertha, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Braunschweig against W3 D0 L3 for Hertha. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.006 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
36.5%+4.0%
27.0%-0.3%
36.5%-3.7%
conservative EV -0.006 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Braunschweig 0 · 2 draws · Hertha 3 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
HerthaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.9% | Over 7.5 | 63.1% | Over 8.5 | 50.5% | Over 9.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Braunschweig | 49.8% | Most: Hertha | 37.5% | ||||
| Braunschweig Over 4.2 | 48.3% | Hertha Over 4.2 | 39.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.9% | Over 3.5 | 67.7% | Over 4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Braunschweig | 30.0% | Most: Hertha | 51.5% | ||
| Braunschweig Over 1.8 | 59.7% | Hertha Over 1.8 | 73.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Braunschweig clean sheet | 25.8% |
|---|---|
| Hertha clean sheet | 25.8% |
| Braunschweig win to nil | 18.5% |
| Hertha win to nil | 18.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 36.5% | draw | 27.0% | away | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.5% | 12 | 73.0% | X2 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 50.0% | away | 50.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.5% | no | 44.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.9% | away | 25.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.6% | away | 18.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.7% | home_by_2 | 10.8% | home_by_3plus | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.7% | away_by_2 | 10.8% | away_by_3plus | 6.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 0-1 | 8.5% | 0-2 | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.8% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 1-3 | 3.7% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.1% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 3-1 | 3.7% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.7% | under_0.5 | 7.3% | over_1.5 | 75.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.2% | over_2.5 | 50.7% | under_2.5 | 49.3% |
| over_3.5 | 28.6% | under_3.5 | 71.4% | over_4.5 | 13.7% |
| under_4.5 | 86.3% | over_5.5 | 5.7% | under_5.5 | 94.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
most
| home | 36.5% | draw | 27.0% | away | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.0% | away_+2.5 | 94.0% | home_-1.5 | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.2% | home_-0.5 | 36.5% | away_+0.5 | 63.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.5% | away_-0.5 | 36.5% | home_+1.5 | 83.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.8% | home_+2.5 | 94.0% | away_-2.5 | 6.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.3% | exact_1 | 16.9% | exact_2 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 14.9% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.6% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.0% | draw | 39.9% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.5% | under_0.5 | 27.5% | over_1.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.0% | over_2.5 | 14.1% | under_2.5 | 85.9% |
btts
| yes | 22.1% | no | 77.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.5% | exact_1 | 35.5% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.9% | exact_4plus | 4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.3% | draw | 37.8% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.1% | over_1.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.4% | over_2.5 | 17.2% | under_2.5 | 82.8% |
btts
| yes | 25.7% | no | 74.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.7% | H/D | 3.9% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.1% | D/D | 15.1% | D/A | 10.8% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 6.8% | A/A | 26.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.1% | under_7.5 | 22.9% | over_8.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.6% | over_9.5 | 54.6% | under_9.5 | 45.4% |
| over_10.5 | 42.9% | under_10.5 | 57.1% | over_11.5 | 32.1% |
| under_11.5 | 67.9% | over_12.5 | 23.0% | under_12.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.0% | under_3.5 | 25.0% | over_4.5 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.0% | over_5.5 | 44.7% | under_5.5 | 55.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.0% | under_3.5 | 34.0% | over_4.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.9% | over_5.5 | 33.8% | under_5.5 | 66.2% |
most
| home | 52.0% | draw | 10.7% | away | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.4% | away_+3.5 | 77.6% | home_-1.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.8% | home_-0.5 | 52.0% | away_+0.5 | 48.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.6% | away_-0.5 | 37.4% | home_+1.5 | 72.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.6% | home_+3.5 | 87.2% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 72.8% | under_22.5 | 27.2% | over_24.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.1% | over_26.5 | 48.3% | under_26.5 | 51.7% |
| over_28.5 | 36.1% | under_28.5 | 63.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.7% | under_10.5 | 22.3% | over_12.5 | 61.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.3% | over_14.5 | 44.7% | under_14.5 | 55.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 64.4% | under_10.5 | 35.6% | over_12.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.2% | over_14.5 | 29.2% | under_14.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 58.1% | draw | 6.1% | away | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.1% | away_+4.5 | 66.9% | home_-2.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.1% | away_+0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.8% | home_+2.5 | 75.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.6% | home_+4.5 | 84.3% | away_-4.5 | 15.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.9% | under_6.5 | 25.1% | over_7.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.9% | over_8.5 | 50.5% | under_8.5 | 49.5% |
| over_9.5 | 38.4% | under_9.5 | 61.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.8% | under_3.5 | 34.2% | over_4.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.7% | over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.6% | under_3.5 | 42.4% | over_4.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.6% | over_5.5 | 24.6% | under_5.5 | 75.4% |
most
| home | 49.8% | draw | 12.7% | away | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.0% | away_+2.5 | 74.0% | home_-0.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.2% | home_+0.5 | 62.5% | away_-0.5 | 37.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.1% | away_-2.5 | 16.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.9% | under_2.5 | 16.1% | over_3.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.3% | over_4.5 | 49.0% | under_4.5 | 51.0% |
| over_5.5 | 31.8% | under_5.5 | 68.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.7% | under_1.5 | 40.4% | over_2.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 73.5% | under_1.5 | 26.5% | over_2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 51.6% |
most
| home | 30.0% | draw | 18.5% | away | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.7% | away_+1.5 | 84.3% | home_-0.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.0% | home_+0.5 | 48.5% | away_-0.5 | 51.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 67.1% | away_-1.5 | 32.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 72.6% | under_20.5 | 27.4% | over_22.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 41.1% | over_24.5 | 44.6% | under_24.5 | 55.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.6% | under_9.5 | 31.4% | over_11.5 | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.2% | over_13.5 | 28.9% | under_13.5 | 71.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.0% | under_9.5 | 24.0% | over_11.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.1% | over_13.5 | 37.4% | under_13.5 | 62.6% |
most
| home | 40.0% | draw | 7.2% | away | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.2% | away_+3.5 | 78.8% | home_-0.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.0% | home_+2.5 | 61.6% | away_-2.5 | 38.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 27.0% | no | 73.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Braunschweig predictions · Hertha predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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