Genk vs Beveren: model prediction
Pro LeagueGenk or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Genk at 62.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 59.4% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 55.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Few Pro League fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Genk carry a 63% win probability against Beveren on 28 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Genk higher (66%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. • Beveren are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. • The run in: Genk arrive W2 D3 L1, Beveren W1 D0 L2. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
62.6%-3.1%
21.1%+0.2%
16.3%+2.9%
value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Genk
BeverenLeague averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 79.1% | Over 7.5 | 68.6% | Over 8.5 | 57.1% | Over 9.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genk | 64.7% | Most: Beveren | 24.7% | ||||
| Genk Over 4.2 | 62.4% | Beveren Over 4.2 | 32.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.1% | Over 3.5 | 48.1% | Over 4.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Genk | 26.9% | Most: Beveren | 52.4% | ||
| Genk Over 1.8 | 43.0% | Beveren Over 1.8 | 62.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Genk clean sheet | 36.8% |
|---|---|
| Beveren clean sheet | 12.2% |
| Genk win to nil | 31.7% |
| Beveren win to nil | 7.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 62.6% | draw | 21.1% | away | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 83.7% | 12 | 78.9% | X2 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 79.4% | away | 20.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.3% | no | 44.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 37.5% | away | 12.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.5% | away | 7.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.2% | home_by_2 | 19.1% | home_by_3plus | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.6% | away_by_2 | 4.2% | away_by_3plus | 1.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.1% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 1-1 | 9.9% | 1-2 | 4.6% |
| 1-3 | 1.5% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.1% | 3-1 | 6.9% | 3-2 | 3.4% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.7% | 4-1 | 3.7% | 4-2 | 1.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.6% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.9% | under_0.5 | 5.1% | over_1.5 | 81.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.3% | over_2.5 | 59.4% | under_2.5 | 40.6% |
| over_3.5 | 37.1% | under_3.5 | 62.9% | over_4.5 | 19.8% |
| under_4.5 | 80.2% | over_5.5 | 9.2% | under_5.5 | 90.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.7% | under_0.5 | 12.3% | over_1.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.0% | over_2.5 | 35.0% | under_2.5 | 65.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.5% | over_1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
most
| home | 62.6% | draw | 21.1% | away | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.3% | away_+2.5 | 79.7% | home_-1.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.6% | home_-0.5 | 62.6% | away_+0.5 | 37.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 83.7% | away_-0.5 | 16.3% | home_+1.5 | 94.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.7% | home_+2.5 | 98.5% | away_-2.5 | 1.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.1% | exact_1 | 13.2% | exact_2 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.2% | exact_5 | 10.6% |
| exact_6 | 5.5% | exact_7plus | 3.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.5% | draw | 39.5% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.2% | under_0.5 | 26.8% | over_1.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.1% | over_2.5 | 14.6% | under_2.5 | 85.4% |
btts
| yes | 22.9% | no | 77.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.8% | exact_1 | 35.3% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.2% | exact_4plus | 4.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 55.7% | draw | 30.5% | away | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.5% | under_0.5 | 18.6% | over_1.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.8% | over_2.5 | 23.9% | under_2.5 | 76.1% |
btts
| yes | 25.9% | no | 74.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.9% | H/D | 2.9% | H/A | 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 22.0% | D/D | 12.1% | D/A | 5.4% |
| A/H | 5.4% | A/D | 6.5% | A/A | 13.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.1% | under_7.5 | 21.9% | over_8.5 | 67.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.5% | over_9.5 | 55.8% | under_9.5 | 44.2% |
| over_10.5 | 44.0% | under_10.5 | 56.1% | over_11.5 | 33.0% |
| under_11.5 | 67.0% | over_12.5 | 23.7% | under_12.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.6% | under_3.5 | 21.4% | over_4.5 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.4% | over_5.5 | 49.6% | under_5.5 | 50.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 30.0% | under_5.5 | 70.0% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 10.2% | away | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.4% | away_+3.5 | 72.7% | home_-1.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.8% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% | away_+0.5 | 42.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 31.9% | home_+1.5 | 77.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.0% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.9% | under_22.5 | 28.1% | over_24.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.1% | over_26.5 | 49.1% | under_26.5 | 50.9% |
| over_28.5 | 37.7% | under_28.5 | 62.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.8% | under_10.5 | 19.2% | over_12.5 | 67.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 32.6% | over_14.5 | 52.4% | under_14.5 | 47.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.3% | under_10.5 | 43.7% | over_12.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.1% | over_14.5 | 24.5% | under_14.5 | 75.5% |
most
| home | 67.1% | draw | 5.2% | away | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.9% | away_+4.5 | 56.1% | home_-2.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 44.3% | home_-0.5 | 67.1% | away_+0.5 | 32.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.3% | away_-0.5 | 27.7% | home_+2.5 | 81.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.7% | home_+4.5 | 88.2% | away_-4.5 | 11.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 79.1% | under_6.5 | 20.9% | over_7.5 | 68.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 31.4% | over_8.5 | 57.1% | under_8.5 | 42.9% |
| over_9.5 | 45.4% | under_9.5 | 54.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.9% | under_3.5 | 23.1% | over_4.5 | 62.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.6% | over_5.5 | 47.3% | under_5.5 | 52.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.4% | under_3.5 | 49.6% | over_4.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.1% | over_5.5 | 19.6% | under_5.5 | 80.4% |
most
| home | 64.7% | draw | 10.5% | away | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 41.2% | away_+2.5 | 58.8% | home_-0.5 | 64.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 35.3% | home_+0.5 | 75.3% | away_-0.5 | 24.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.2% | away_-2.5 | 9.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.1% | under_2.5 | 30.9% | over_3.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 29.4% | under_4.5 | 70.6% |
| over_5.5 | 15.9% | under_5.5 | 84.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.0% | under_1.5 | 57.0% | over_2.5 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.0% | under_1.5 | 38.0% | over_2.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.4% |
most
| home | 26.9% | draw | 20.7% | away | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.2% | away_+1.5 | 87.8% | home_-0.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.1% | home_+0.5 | 47.6% | away_-0.5 | 52.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.4% | away_-1.5 | 31.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 61.2% | under_20.5 | 38.8% | over_22.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 53.3% | over_24.5 | 33.1% | under_24.5 | 66.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.5% | under_9.5 | 39.5% | over_11.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.3% | over_13.5 | 22.6% | under_13.5 | 77.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 67.8% | under_9.5 | 32.2% | over_11.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.3% | over_13.5 | 29.4% | under_13.5 | 70.6% |
most
| home | 40.7% | draw | 7.3% | away | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.5% | away_+3.5 | 78.5% | home_-0.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.3% | home_+2.5 | 62.5% | away_-2.5 | 37.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.0% | no | 91.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.7% | no | 97.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.4% | no | 93.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Genk predictions · Beveren predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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