Alverca vs Santa Clara: model prediction
Primeira LigaDraw or Santa Clara
Over 1.5 goals
Alverca or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Santa Clara at 36.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 61.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 54.6% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Alverca and Santa Clara on 29 August 2026: Santa Clara nose ahead at 37%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 35%. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 38% with both teams to score at 45%. 3) Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 0 wins for Alverca, 1 draws and 1 for Santa Clara, averaging 2.5 goals a game. The run in: Alverca arrive W0 D2 L4, Santa Clara W3 D2 L1. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.9%-3.0%
30.3%+0.9%
36.8%+2.1%
value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alverca 0 · 1 draws · Santa Clara 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Alverca
Santa ClaraLeague averages this season: 2.79 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.8% | Over 7.5 | 49.3% | Over 8.5 | 36.5% | Over 9.5 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 46.6% | Most: Santa Clara | 39.7% | ||||
| Alverca Over 4.2 | 36.5% | Santa Clara Over 4.2 | 31.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.9% | Over 3.5 | 70.9% | Over 4.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 38.1% | Most: Santa Clara | 43.2% | ||
| Alverca Over 1.8 | 67.8% | Santa Clara Over 1.8 | 70.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Alverca clean sheet | 31.8% |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 34.3% |
| Alverca win to nil | 20.2% |
| Santa Clara win to nil | 22.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.9% | draw | 30.3% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.2% | 12 | 69.7% | X2 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 47.2% | away | 52.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.4% | no | 54.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.8% | away | 34.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.2% | away | 22.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.8% | home_by_2 | 9.2% | home_by_3plus | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.2% | away_by_2 | 10.6% | away_by_3plus | 5.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.6% | 0-1 | 11.9% | 0-2 | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 1-1 | 14.0% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.9% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.2% | 2-1 | 7.1% | 2-2 | 4.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.2% | 3-1 | 2.5% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 88.4% | under_0.5 | 11.6% | over_1.5 | 65.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 34.5% | over_2.5 | 38.1% | under_2.5 | 61.9% |
| over_3.5 | 18.3% | under_3.5 | 81.7% | over_4.5 | 7.4% |
| under_4.5 | 92.6% | over_5.5 | 2.6% | under_5.5 | 97.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.1% | even | 51.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 65.6% | under_0.5 | 34.4% | over_1.5 | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.1% | over_2.5 | 9.3% | under_2.5 | 90.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.3% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
most
| home | 32.9% | draw | 30.3% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.9% | away_+2.5 | 96.1% | home_-1.5 | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.9% | home_-0.5 | 32.9% | away_+0.5 | 67.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+1.5 | 84.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.5% | home_+2.5 | 95.1% | away_-2.5 | 5.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.6% | exact_1 | 22.9% | exact_2 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.8% | exact_4 | 10.9% | exact_5 | 4.8% |
| exact_6 | 1.8% | exact_7plus | 0.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.0% | draw | 46.9% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.6% | under_0.5 | 37.4% | over_1.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.2% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
btts
| yes | 14.9% | no | 85.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.4% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.9% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.6% | draw | 42.6% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.0% | under_0.5 | 31.0% | over_1.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.3% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
btts
| yes | 19.7% | no | 80.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 17.4% | H/D | 4.2% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.4% | D/D | 20.0% | D/A | 13.5% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 23.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 66.0% | under_7.5 | 34.0% | over_8.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 45.8% | over_9.5 | 42.6% | under_9.5 | 57.4% |
| over_10.5 | 32.1% | under_10.5 | 67.9% | over_11.5 | 23.1% |
| under_11.5 | 76.9% | over_12.5 | 16.0% | under_12.5 | 84.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.3% | under_3.5 | 33.7% | over_4.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.0% | over_5.5 | 36.8% | under_5.5 | 63.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.1% | under_3.5 | 42.9% | over_4.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.1% | over_5.5 | 27.4% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 10.5% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.4% | away_+3.5 | 77.6% | home_-1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.3% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% | away_+0.5 | 48.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+1.5 | 71.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.5% | home_+3.5 | 86.4% | away_-3.5 | 13.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 53.2% | under_22.5 | 46.8% | over_24.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.9% | over_26.5 | 30.1% | under_26.5 | 69.9% |
| over_28.5 | 20.9% | under_28.5 | 79.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 61.7% | under_10.5 | 38.4% | over_12.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 55.3% | over_14.5 | 29.8% | under_14.5 | 70.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.1% | under_10.5 | 47.9% | over_12.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.0% | over_14.5 | 21.5% | under_14.5 | 78.5% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 6.2% | away | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.7% | away_+4.5 | 70.3% | home_-2.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 58.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% | away_+0.5 | 46.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.0% | away_-0.5 | 40.0% | home_+2.5 | 71.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 28.5% | home_+4.5 | 81.1% | away_-4.5 | 18.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.8% | under_6.5 | 37.2% | over_7.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.7% | over_8.5 | 36.5% | under_8.5 | 63.5% |
| over_9.5 | 25.6% | under_9.5 | 74.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 54.5% | under_3.5 | 45.5% | over_4.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.5% | over_5.5 | 22.2% | under_5.5 | 77.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.5% | under_3.5 | 50.5% | over_4.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.3% | over_5.5 | 18.4% | under_5.5 | 81.6% |
most
| home | 46.6% | draw | 13.7% | away | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.1% | away_+2.5 | 77.9% | home_-0.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.4% | home_+0.5 | 60.3% | away_-0.5 | 39.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.8% | away_-2.5 | 17.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.9% | under_2.5 | 14.1% | over_3.5 | 70.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.1% | over_4.5 | 52.8% | under_4.5 | 47.2% |
| over_5.5 | 35.3% | under_5.5 | 64.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 67.8% | under_1.5 | 32.2% | over_2.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.9% | under_1.5 | 29.1% | over_2.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.9% |
most
| home | 38.1% | draw | 18.7% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.0% | away_+1.5 | 78.0% | home_-0.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.9% | home_+0.5 | 56.8% | away_-0.5 | 43.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.9% | away_-1.5 | 26.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.7% | under_20.5 | 13.4% | over_22.5 | 77.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.3% | over_24.5 | 66.5% | under_24.5 | 33.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.7% | under_9.5 | 19.3% | over_11.5 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 35.6% | over_13.5 | 46.3% | under_13.5 | 53.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.4% | under_9.5 | 15.7% | over_11.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.3% | over_13.5 | 52.3% | under_13.5 | 47.7% |
most
| home | 42.6% | draw | 6.4% | away | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.1% | away_+3.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.4% | home_+2.5 | 61.7% | away_-2.5 | 38.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.7% | no | 83.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Alverca predictions · Santa Clara predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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