Feyenoord vs Den Haag prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

By /

Feyenoord vs Den Haag: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Eredivisie
Feyenoord

DWWDW

Full time2-2Sun, 30 Aug 202613:30UK
Den Haag

LLLLL

Model’s top convictions

89%

Feyenoord or draw

87%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Feyenoord 2-2 Den Haag
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Feyenoord at 72.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 68.6% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 87.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 52.9% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 56.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 86.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 59.2% and it landed (14 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 70.2% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 63.1% and it landed (41 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 73.9% and it landed (15 shots on target). We called No at 86.9% and it landed.

Match data Feyenoord Den Haag
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 33 8
Shots on target 12 3
Corners 11 3
Yellow cards 0 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 5 9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FeyenoordWin probability
72.4%
Top 3 convictions

Feyenoord or draw88.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.12
Over 1.5 goals87.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.15
Over 2.5 goals68.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.46

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Feyenoord at 72% against Den Haag, Eredivisie, 30 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Feyenoord at 83%. Caution noted. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 69% with both teams to score at 57%. 3) As a promoted side, Den Haag carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Feyenoord arrive W4 D2 L0, Den Haag W1 D0 L5. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Feyenoord, 1 draws and 2 for Den Haag, averaging 4.4 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.05).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.4%@ 2.16
Over 11.5 corners37.4%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.8%@ 1.76
Over 9.5 corners56.1%@ 1.78
Random finds

2-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.21
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.83
3-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.82

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Feyenoord

72.4%-11.0%

Draw

16.5%+5.3%

Den Haag

11.1%+5.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.05)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.587.1%

High probability

Over 2.568.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes56.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.1%

Good chance

Over 10.546.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.537.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersFeyenoord58.3%Den Haag32.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.563.1%

Strong chance

Over 26.552.2%

Good chance

Over 28.541.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.587.1%2.568.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.568.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FeyenoordDWWDW
Den HaagLLLLL

Last 5 meetings: Feyenoord 2 · 1 draws · Den Haag 2 · 4.4 goals/game.

2021-05-02Den Haag 3-2 Feyenoord
2020-09-27Feyenoord 4-2 Den Haag
2019-09-15Feyenoord 3-2 Den Haag
2019-05-12Feyenoord 0-2 Den Haag
2018-12-23Den Haag 2-2 Feyenoord

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FeyenoordDen Haag
League position#4 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-00-0-3
Current streakW1L3
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-2
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.75 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Feyenoord win1.171.38
Draw8.006.06
Den Haag win15.009.01
Over 2.5 goals1.291.46
Under 2.5 goals3.603.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Feyenoord win1.38
Draw6.06
Den Haag win9.02
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.15
Over 2.5 goals1.46
Over 3.5 goals2.12
Over 4.5 goals3.55
Feyenoord most1.38
Den Haag most9.02

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.42
Over 9.5 corners1.69
Over 10.5 corners2.10
Feyenoord most1.71
Den Haag most3.11

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.93
Over 3.5 cards3.35
Over 4.5 cards6.77
Over 5.5 cards15.70
Feyenoord most3.47
Den Haag most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.35
Over 8.5 SoT1.57
Over 9.5 SoT1.90
Feyenoord most1.66
Den Haag most3.41

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.58
Over 26.5 shots1.92
Over 28.5 shots2.43
Feyenoord most1.64
Den Haag most2.95

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.80
Over 22.5 fouls2.49
Over 24.5 fouls3.76
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.9% Over 7.5 73.9% Over 8.5 63.6% Over 9.5 52.7%
Most: Feyenoord 60.3% Most: Den Haag 29.3%
Feyenoord Over 4.2 63.8% Den Haag Over 4.2 41.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 51.7% Over 3.5 29.8% Over 4.5 14.8%
Most: Feyenoord 28.8% Most: Den Haag 46.3%
Feyenoord Over 1.8 33.0% Den Haag Over 1.8 46.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Feyenoord clean sheet 37.1%
Den Haag clean sheet 7.5%
Feyenoord win to nil 33.8%
Den Haag win to nil 4.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 72.4% draw 16.5% away 11.1%
double_chance
1X 88.9% 12 83.5% X2 27.6%
dnb
home 86.7% away 13.3%
btts
yes 56.8% no 43.2%
clean_sheet
home 39.0% away 7.5%
win_to_nil
home 35.7% away 4.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 20.6% home_by_3plus 30.7%
away_by_1 7.4% away_by_2 2.7% away_by_3plus 0.9%
correct_score
0-0 3.3% 0-1 2.4% 0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.4% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 7.5% 1-2 3.4%
1-3 1.1% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.8% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 8.5% 3-1 8.0% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 5.5% 4-1 5.2% 4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.9% 5-1 2.7% 5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 4.9%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 9.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.7% under_0.5 3.3% over_1.5 87.1%
under_1.5 12.9% over_2.5 68.6% under_2.5 31.5%
over_3.5 47.1% under_3.5 52.9% over_4.5 28.1%
under_4.5 71.9% over_5.5 14.7% under_5.5 85.3%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 73.1%
under_1.5 26.9% over_2.5 48.0% under_2.5 52.0%
team_away
over_0.5 61.1% under_0.5 39.0% over_1.5 24.3%
under_1.5 75.7% over_2.5 7.0% under_2.5 93.0%
most
home 72.4% draw 16.5% away 11.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.7% away_+2.5 69.3% home_-1.5 51.4%
away_+1.5 48.6% home_-0.5 72.4% away_+0.5 27.6%
home_+0.5 88.9% away_-0.5 11.1% home_+1.5 96.4%
away_-1.5 3.7% home_+2.5 99.1% away_-2.5 0.9%
total_exact
exact_0 3.3% exact_1 9.6% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 21.5% exact_4 19.0% exact_5 13.4%
exact_6 7.9% exact_7plus 6.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 67.1% draw 25.1% away 7.7%
total
over_0.5 83.7% under_0.5 16.3% over_1.5 54.1%
under_1.5 45.9% over_2.5 27.3% under_2.5 72.7%
btts
yes 21.3% no 78.7%
total_exact
exact_0 16.3% exact_1 29.6% exact_2 26.8%
exact_3 16.2% exact_4plus 11.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 54.6% draw 27.9% away 17.4%
total
over_0.5 86.7% under_0.5 13.3% over_1.5 59.8%
under_1.5 40.2% over_2.5 32.8% under_2.5 67.2%
btts
yes 35.4% no 64.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 60.7% H/D 4.8% H/A 1.6%
D/H 13.7% D/D 7.0% D/A 4.4%
A/H 1.9% A/D 2.0% A/A 3.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.2% under_7.5 19.8% over_8.5 70.3%
under_8.5 29.7% over_9.5 59.2% under_9.5 40.8%
over_10.5 47.7% under_10.5 52.3% over_11.5 36.8%
under_11.5 63.2% over_12.5 27.2% under_12.5 72.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.3% under_3.5 20.7% over_4.5 66.4%
under_4.5 33.6% over_5.5 52.4% under_5.5 47.6%
team_away
over_3.5 62.7% under_3.5 37.3% over_4.5 46.4%
under_4.5 53.6% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.1%
most
home 58.5% draw 9.3% away 32.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.1% away_+3.5 69.9% home_-1.5 48.7%
away_+1.5 51.3% home_-0.5 58.5% away_+0.5 41.5%
home_+0.5 67.8% away_-0.5 32.2% home_+1.5 76.1%
away_-1.5 23.9% home_+3.5 88.5% away_-3.5 11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.4% under_22.5 26.6% over_24.5 63.1%
under_24.5 36.9% over_26.5 52.2% under_26.5 47.8%
over_28.5 41.2% under_28.5 58.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.2% under_10.5 21.8% over_12.5 64.9%
under_12.5 35.1% over_14.5 50.4% under_14.5 49.6%
team_away
over_10.5 62.0% under_10.5 38.1% over_12.5 45.8%
under_12.5 54.2% over_14.5 31.3% under_14.5 68.7%
most
home 60.8% draw 5.3% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.7% away_+4.5 61.3% home_-2.5 49.8%
away_+2.5 50.2% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+2.5 75.6%
away_-2.5 24.4% home_+4.5 83.5% away_-4.5 16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.9% under_6.5 17.1% over_7.5 73.9%
under_7.5 26.1% over_8.5 63.6% under_8.5 36.4%
over_9.5 52.7% under_9.5 47.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.5% under_3.5 22.5% over_4.5 63.8%
under_4.5 36.2% over_5.5 49.5% under_5.5 50.5%
team_away
over_3.5 58.5% under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 41.5%
under_4.5 58.5% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 60.4% draw 10.4% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.4% away_+2.5 61.6% home_-0.5 60.4%
away_+0.5 39.7% home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3%
home_+2.5 86.6% away_-2.5 13.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 51.7% under_2.5 48.3% over_3.5 29.8%
under_3.5 70.2% over_4.5 14.8% under_4.5 85.2%
over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 33.0% under_1.5 67.0% over_2.5 11.9%
under_2.5 88.1%
team_away
over_1.5 46.3% under_1.5 53.7% over_2.5 21.1%
under_2.5 78.9%
most
home 28.8% draw 24.9% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.8% away_+1.5 88.2% home_-0.5 28.8%
away_+0.5 71.2% home_+0.5 53.7% away_-0.5 46.3%
home_+1.5 76.2% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 55.4% under_20.5 44.6% over_22.5 40.1%
under_22.5 59.9% over_24.5 26.6% under_24.5 73.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 48.4% under_9.5 51.6% over_11.5 27.3%
under_11.5 72.7% over_13.5 12.9% under_13.5 87.1%
team_away
over_9.5 71.4% under_9.5 28.6% over_11.5 50.9%
under_11.5 49.1% over_13.5 31.5% under_13.5 68.5%
most
home 29.7% draw 7.2% away 63.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.0% away_+3.5 87.0% home_-0.5 29.7%
away_+0.5 70.3% home_+2.5 52.3% away_-2.5 47.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
home
yes 4.2% no 95.8%
away
yes 9.3% no 90.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Feyenoord predictions · Den Haag predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

EredivisieFeyenoordDen HaagTrack record