Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Bundesliga
Freiburg

WLDLW

Full time4-1Sun, 30 Aug 202614:30UK25°C · Cloudy
Werder Bremen

WDLLL

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Freiburg or draw

58%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Freiburg at 51.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.8% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.5% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 56.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 66.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.9% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 50.0% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.3% and it landed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 68.3% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 77.9% and it landed.

Match data Freiburg Werder Bremen
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 19 9
Shots, 1st half 13 2
Shots, 2nd half 6 7
Shots on target 5 3
Corners 6 5
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 13 16
Expected goals (xG) 2.39 0.95

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FreiburgWin probability
51.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Freiburg or draw75.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 8.5 corners58.0%Good chancePays @ 1.72

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Freiburg carry a 52% win probability against Werder Bremen on 30 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 50% on Freiburg, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • The recent series reads 4 wins for Freiburg, 0 draws and 1 for Werder Bremen over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. • Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Freiburg against W1 D1 L4 for Werder Bremen. For shots markets, Igor Matanovic is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.1%@ 2.12
Over 10.5 corners37.0%@ 2.70
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.3%@ 1.78
Over 2.5 goals53.8%@ 1.86
Draw or Werder Bremen48.4%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.35
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.47
1-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.74

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Freiburg

51.6%+1.2%

Draw

24.1%-2.1%

Werder Bremen

24.3%+0.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.0%

High probability

Over 2.553.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.0%

Good chance

Over 9.547.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.0%

Low chance

Most cornersFreiburg57.1%Werder Bremen32.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.3%

Good chance

Over 26.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.7%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.0%2.553.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FreiburgWLDLW
Werder BremenWDLLL

Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 4 · 0 draws · Werder Bremen 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-02-07Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen
2025-09-20Werder Bremen 0-3 Freiburg
2025-02-21Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen
2024-10-05Werder Bremen 0-1 Freiburg
2024-01-27Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

FreiburgWerder Bremen
League position#7 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L13-8-138-8-18
Current streakW1L3
Points per game1.380.94
Record, home vs away9-5-33-4-10
PPG, home vs away1.880.76
Goals scored per game1.501.09
Goals conceded per game1.681.76
Scored, home vs away1.941.06
Conceded, home vs away1.291.71
1st half goals per game0.590.32
2nd half goals per game0.910.76
Corners won per game4.14.5
Cards per game1.72.4
Fouls per game9.49.9
Red cards this season35
Shots per game12.213.0
Shots on target per game4.24.1
xG for per game1.471.25
xG against per game1.581.82
Over 2.5 rate

64.7%52.9%

BTTS rate

61.8%47.1%

Clean sheets

17.6%17.6%

Rates this season:FreiburgWerder Bremen

League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Igor MatanovicFreiburg · key player
To score29.7%

@ 3.37

1+ on target45.7%

@ 2.19

2+ shots49.0%

@ 2.04

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.64
Oliver BurkeWerder Bremen · key player
To score18.3%

@ 5.46

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots40.8%

@ 2.45

Shots/90 3.61SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.52
Derry ScherhantFreiburg · in form
To score14.9%

@ 6.71

1+ on target34.1%

@ 2.93

2+ shots32.4%

@ 3.09

Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.36
Marvin DuckschWerder Bremen · in form
To score22.7%

@ 4.41

1+ on target58.3%

@ 1.72

2+ shots63.6%

@ 1.57

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.3
Michael GregoritschFreiburg · in form
To score9.5%

@ 10.53

1+ on target26.0%

@ 3.85

2+ shots19.1%

@ 5.24

Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.3
Justin NjinmahWerder Bremen · in form
To score11.3%

@ 8.85

1+ on target38.1%

@ 2.62

2+ shots47.1%

@ 2.12

Shots/90 2.91SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.22

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Freiburg win1.911.94
Draw3.604.15
Werder Bremen win4.004.11
Over 2.5 goals1.731.86
Under 2.5 goals2.102.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Freiburg win2.05
Draw3.95
Werder Bremen win3.88
Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.86
Over 3.5 goals3.17
Freiburg most2.05
Werder Bremen most3.88

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.39
Over 8.5 corners1.66
Over 9.5 corners2.08
Over 10.5 corners2.74
Freiburg most1.75
Werder Bremen most3.10

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.00
Over 4.5 cards3.25
Over 5.5 cards6.02
Freiburg most3.47
Werder Bremen most1.99

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.46
Over 8.5 SoT1.77
Over 9.5 SoT2.23
Freiburg most1.71
Werder Bremen most3.31

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.45
Over 24.5 shots1.75
Over 26.5 shots2.21
Over 28.5 shots2.97
Freiburg most1.60
Werder Bremen most3.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.14
Over 22.5 fouls2.86
Over 24.5 fouls4.01
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.9% Over 7.5 68.3% Over 8.5 56.6% Over 9.5 44.8%
Most: Freiburg 58.4% Most: Werder Bremen 30.2%
Freiburg Over 4.2 58.1% Werder Bremen Over 4.2 37.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.0% Over 3.5 50.0% Over 4.5 30.8%
Most: Freiburg 28.8% Most: Werder Bremen 50.2%
Freiburg Over 1.8 46.4% Werder Bremen Over 1.8 62.2%

Freiburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Igor Matanovic 2.99 1.11 0.64 45.7% 49.0% 29.7%
Derry Scherhant 2.59 0.93 0.36 34.1% 32.4% 14.9%
Michael Gregoritsch 2.39 0.9 0.3 26.0% 19.1% 9.5%
Vincenzo Grifo 2.01 0.89 0.32 46.4% 41.1% 20.1%
Lucas Höler 1.56 0.74 0.21 40.0% 29.2% 13.5%

Werder Bremen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Oliver Burke 3.61 1.24 0.52 38.2% 40.8% 18.3%
Marvin Ducksch 2.52 1.02 0.3 58.3% 63.6% 22.7%
Justin Njinmah 2.91 0.88 0.22 38.1% 47.1% 11.3%
Keke Maximilian Topp 3.69 0.81 0.35 16.9% 20.6% 7.7%
Jovan Milosevic 2.27 0.76 0.57 26.6% 23.6% 20.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Freiburg clean sheet 31.2%
Werder Bremen clean sheet 18.7%
Freiburg win to nil 24.8%
Werder Bremen win to nil 12.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.9% draw 25.3% away 25.8%
double_chance
1X 74.2% 12 74.7% X2 51.1%
dnb
home 65.5% away 34.6%
btts
yes 56.3% no 43.7%
clean_sheet
home 31.5% away 18.8%
win_to_nil
home 25.0% away 12.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.5% home_by_2 15.1% home_by_3plus 11.3%
away_by_1 15.4% away_by_2 7.2% away_by_3plus 3.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.5% 0-1 6.3% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.3% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.6% 3-1 5.3% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 78.0%
under_1.5 22.0% over_2.5 53.8% under_2.5 46.2%
over_3.5 31.5% under_3.5 68.5% over_4.5 15.7%
under_4.5 84.3% over_5.5 6.8% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 81.2% under_0.5 18.8% over_1.5 49.9%
under_1.5 50.1% over_2.5 23.6% under_2.5 76.4%
team_away
over_0.5 68.5% under_0.5 31.5% over_1.5 32.2%
under_1.5 67.8% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
most
home 48.9% draw 25.3% away 25.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.3% away_+2.5 88.7% home_-1.5 26.4%
away_+1.5 73.6% home_-0.5 48.9% away_+0.5 51.1%
home_+0.5 74.2% away_-0.5 25.8% home_+1.5 89.6%
away_-1.5 10.4% home_+2.5 96.8% away_-2.5 3.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.5% exact_1 15.6% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 8.9%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.1% draw 43.1% away 16.8%
total
over_0.5 66.4% under_0.5 33.6% over_1.5 29.8%
under_1.5 70.2% over_2.5 9.8% under_2.5 90.2%
btts
yes 15.8% no 84.2%
total_exact
exact_0 33.6% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 7.3% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.4% draw 32.6% away 29.0%
total
over_0.5 83.6% under_0.5 16.4% over_1.5 53.9%
under_1.5 46.1% over_2.5 27.1% under_2.5 72.9%
btts
yes 35.1% no 64.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 31.1% H/D 6.2% H/A 2.8%
D/H 16.5% D/D 14.1% D/A 12.5%
A/H 2.2% A/D 3.6% A/A 11.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.0% under_7.5 28.0% over_8.5 60.2%
under_8.5 39.8% over_9.5 48.1% under_9.5 51.9%
over_10.5 36.5% under_10.5 63.5% over_11.5 26.4%
under_11.5 73.6% over_12.5 18.2% under_12.5 81.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.3% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 59.3%
under_4.5 40.7% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 57.6% under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 40.3%
under_4.5 59.7% over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.1%
most
home 57.2% draw 10.5% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.0% away_+3.5 74.0% home_-1.5 46.2%
away_+1.5 53.8% home_-0.5 57.2% away_+0.5 42.8%
home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 77.0%
away_-1.5 23.0% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.1% under_22.5 30.9% over_24.5 57.3%
under_24.5 42.7% over_26.5 45.2% under_26.5 54.9%
over_28.5 33.7% under_28.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.2% under_10.5 22.8% over_12.5 62.1%
under_12.5 37.9% over_14.5 46.1% under_14.5 53.9%
team_away
over_10.5 57.7% under_10.5 42.3% over_12.5 39.8%
under_12.5 60.2% over_14.5 24.8% under_14.5 75.2%
most
home 62.6% draw 5.7% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.4% away_+4.5 61.6% home_-2.5 50.5%
away_+2.5 49.5% home_-0.5 62.6% away_+0.5 37.4%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+2.5 78.4%
away_-2.5 21.7% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.0% under_6.5 21.1% over_7.5 68.3%
under_7.5 31.7% over_8.5 56.6% under_8.5 43.4%
over_9.5 44.8% under_9.5 55.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.7% under_3.5 26.3% over_4.5 58.1%
under_4.5 41.9% over_5.5 42.6% under_5.5 57.4%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.6%
under_4.5 62.4% over_5.5 23.3% under_5.5 76.7%
most
home 58.4% draw 11.4% away 30.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.6% away_+2.5 65.4% home_-0.5 58.4%
away_+0.5 41.7% home_+0.5 69.8% away_-0.5 30.2%
home_+2.5 87.1% away_-2.5 13.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.0% under_2.5 29.0% over_3.5 50.0%
under_3.5 50.0% over_4.5 30.8% under_4.5 69.3%
over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 46.4% under_1.5 53.6% over_2.5 20.8%
under_2.5 79.2%
team_away
over_1.5 62.2% under_1.5 37.8% over_2.5 35.2%
under_2.5 64.8%
most
home 28.8% draw 21.0% away 50.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.5% away_+1.5 86.5% home_-0.5 28.8%
away_+0.5 71.2% home_+0.5 49.8% away_-0.5 50.2%
home_+1.5 70.4% away_-1.5 29.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 46.8% under_20.5 53.2% over_22.5 35.0%
under_22.5 65.0% over_24.5 24.9% under_24.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.0% under_9.5 53.0% over_11.5 30.4%
under_11.5 69.6% over_13.5 18.0% under_13.5 82.0%
team_away
over_9.5 57.0% under_9.5 43.0% over_11.5 40.2%
under_11.5 59.8% over_13.5 26.1% under_13.5 73.9%
most
home 39.8% draw 6.4% away 53.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.8% away_+3.5 77.2% home_-0.5 39.8%
away_+0.5 60.2% home_+2.5 59.0% away_-2.5 41.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.1% no 77.9%
home
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
away
yes 11.0% no 89.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Freiburg predictions · Werder Bremen predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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