Ceuta vs Las Palmas: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Las Palmas
Ceuta or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Las Palmas at 43.9%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 53.8% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Ceuta or Las Palmas? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to Las Palmas: 44% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 22 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Las Palmas than the market (38%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. The run in: Ceuta arrive W3 D1 L2, Las Palmas W4 D1 L1. The recent series reads 0 wins for Ceuta, 1 draws and 1 for Las Palmas over 2 games, 3.0 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
29.2%-3.5%
27.0%-1.9%
43.9%+5.6%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ceuta 0 · 1 draws · Las Palmas 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Las PalmasPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 2.95
@ 1.62
@ 1.65
@ ·
@ 5.32
@ 9.43
@ 4.26
@ 2.06
@ 2.01
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.7% | Over 7.5 | 61.1% | Over 8.5 | 47.9% | Over 9.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ceuta | 50.5% | Most: Las Palmas | 36.3% | ||||
| Ceuta Over 4.2 | 47.2% | Las Palmas Over 4.2 | 37.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.4% | Over 3.5 | 68.5% | Over 4.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ceuta | 44.1% | Most: Las Palmas | 37.0% | ||
| Ceuta Over 1.8 | 69.8% | Las Palmas Over 1.8 | 65.3% |
Las Palmas: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabio Silva | 2.32 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 61.7% | 60.5% | 33.9% |
| Jaime Mata | 2.87 | 1.08 | 0 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Sandro Ramírez | 2.18 | 0.87 | 0.35 | 48.6% | 49.7% | 23.5% |
| Adnan Januzaj | 2.56 | 0.8 | 0.32 | 24.3% | 22.4% | 10.5% |
| Alberto Moleiro | 2.12 | 0.71 | 0.2 | 46.3% | 55.3% | 16.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Ceuta clean sheet | 22.7% |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Ceuta win to nil | 15.0% |
| Las Palmas win to nil | 23.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 29.2% | draw | 27.0% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.1% | 12 | 73.0% | X2 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 39.9% | away | 60.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.8% | no | 46.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 22.7% | away | 31.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.0% | away | 23.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.1% | home_by_2 | 8.2% | home_by_3plus | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.0% | away_by_2 | 13.4% | away_by_3plus | 8.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 0-1 | 9.9% | 0-2 | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.8% | 0-4 | 1.4% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-3 | 4.5% | 1-4 | 1.7% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.8% | 2-1 | 7.1% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 1.0% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.9% | 3-1 | 2.8% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.3% | under_0.5 | 7.7% | over_1.5 | 74.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.3% | over_2.5 | 49.3% | under_2.5 | 50.7% |
| over_3.5 | 27.4% | under_3.5 | 72.6% | over_4.5 | 12.9% |
| under_4.5 | 87.1% | over_5.5 | 5.3% | under_5.5 | 94.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.8% | under_0.5 | 31.2% | over_1.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.6% | over_2.5 | 11.3% | under_2.5 | 88.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 77.3% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 29.2% | draw | 27.0% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.8% | away_+2.5 | 96.2% | home_-1.5 | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 88.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.2% | away_+0.5 | 70.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.1% | away_-0.5 | 43.9% | home_+1.5 | 78.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.9% | home_+2.5 | 91.5% | away_-2.5 | 8.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.7% | exact_1 | 17.5% | exact_2 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.5% | exact_5 | 7.7% |
| exact_6 | 3.4% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.5% | draw | 39.0% | away | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.4% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.1% | no | 76.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.3% | exact_1 | 35.1% | exact_2 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.5% | exact_4plus | 4.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.3% | draw | 39.3% | away | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.5% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 16.9% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.2% | D/D | 15.3% | D/A | 13.4% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 5.5% | A/A | 30.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.9% | under_7.5 | 32.1% | over_8.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 44.5% | over_9.5 | 43.0% | under_9.5 | 57.0% |
| over_10.5 | 31.6% | under_10.5 | 68.4% | over_11.5 | 22.0% |
| under_11.5 | 78.0% | over_12.5 | 14.6% | under_12.5 | 85.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.5% | under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.0% | over_5.5 | 36.5% | under_5.5 | 63.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.3% | under_3.5 | 40.7% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
most
| home | 51.0% | draw | 11.4% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.2% | away_+3.5 | 79.8% | home_-1.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.4% | home_-0.5 | 51.0% | away_+0.5 | 49.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.6% | home_+1.5 | 72.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.2% | home_+3.5 | 88.1% | away_-3.5 | 11.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.7% | under_22.5 | 39.3% | over_24.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.3% | over_26.5 | 35.4% | under_26.5 | 64.6% |
| over_28.5 | 24.6% | under_28.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.4% | under_10.5 | 28.6% | over_12.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.8% | over_14.5 | 37.3% | under_14.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.2% | under_10.5 | 46.8% | over_12.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.3% | over_14.5 | 20.1% | under_14.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 60.5% | draw | 6.2% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.7% | away_+4.5 | 65.4% | home_-2.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.5% | away_+0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+2.5 | 77.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.3% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.7% | under_6.5 | 26.3% | over_7.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 38.9% | over_8.5 | 47.9% | under_8.5 | 52.1% |
| over_9.5 | 35.4% | under_9.5 | 64.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.4% | under_3.5 | 34.6% | over_4.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 30.8% | under_5.5 | 69.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.8% | under_3.5 | 44.2% | over_4.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.0% | over_5.5 | 22.0% | under_5.5 | 78.0% |
most
| home | 50.5% | draw | 13.2% | away | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.5% | away_+2.5 | 74.5% | home_-0.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.5% | home_+0.5 | 63.7% | away_-0.5 | 36.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.7% | away_-2.5 | 15.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.4% | under_2.5 | 15.6% | over_3.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 49.9% | under_4.5 | 50.1% |
| over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.8% | under_1.5 | 30.2% | over_2.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 56.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.3% | under_1.5 | 34.7% | over_2.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.4% |
most
| home | 44.1% | draw | 19.0% | away | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 26.5% | away_+1.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.9% | home_+0.5 | 63.0% | away_-0.5 | 37.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.1% | away_-1.5 | 20.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.3% | under_20.5 | 13.7% | over_22.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.2% | over_24.5 | 65.1% | under_24.5 | 34.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 87.0% | under_9.5 | 13.0% | over_11.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 26.7% | over_13.5 | 56.0% | under_13.5 | 44.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.8% | under_9.5 | 23.2% | over_11.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.5% | over_13.5 | 39.4% | under_13.5 | 60.6% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 6.4% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 38.6% | away_+3.5 | 61.4% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.7% | home_+2.5 | 76.2% | away_-2.5 | 23.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.1% | no | 90.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.1% | no | 92.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Ceuta predictions · Las Palmas predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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