Lincoln vs Portsmouth: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Draw or Portsmouth
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Portsmouth at 37.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 52.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Lincoln versus Portsmouth in the Championship on 22 August 2026 is finely balanced. Portsmouth edge it at 37%, but the gap to the field is slim. Our number sits above the market's 34% for Portsmouth. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Lincoln are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Lincoln arrive W0 D0 L1, Portsmouth W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.024 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
34.6%-5.0%
28.0%+1.2%
37.4%+3.8%
conservative EV -0.024 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.8% | Over 7.5 | 52.8% | Over 8.5 | 40.2% | Over 9.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lincoln | 57.4% | Most: Portsmouth | 30.0% | ||||
| Lincoln Over 4.2 | 46.3% | Portsmouth Over 4.2 | 26.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.4% | Over 3.5 | 50.5% | Over 4.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lincoln | 32.3% | Most: Portsmouth | 46.4% | ||
| Lincoln Over 1.8 | 49.8% | Portsmouth Over 1.8 | 60.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Lincoln clean sheet | 27.3% |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 28.9% |
| Lincoln win to nil | 18.7% |
| Portsmouth win to nil | 20.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.6% | draw | 28.0% | away | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 62.6% | 12 | 72.0% | X2 | 65.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.1% | away | 51.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.2% | no | 47.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.4% | away | 29.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.8% | away | 20.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.5% | home_by_2 | 10.1% | home_by_3plus | 5.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.4% | away_by_2 | 11.0% | away_by_3plus | 5.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 0-1 | 9.7% | 0-2 | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 1-1 | 13.4% | 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 1-3 | 3.6% | 1-4 | 1.2% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.1% | 2-1 | 7.9% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.5% | 3-1 | 3.3% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.4% | under_0.5 | 8.6% | over_1.5 | 72.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.4% | over_2.5 | 46.5% | under_2.5 | 53.5% |
| over_3.5 | 25.0% | under_3.5 | 75.0% | over_4.5 | 11.4% |
| under_4.5 | 88.6% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.0% | under_0.5 | 29.0% | over_1.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.9% | over_2.5 | 12.9% | under_2.5 | 87.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.7% | under_0.5 | 27.4% | over_1.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.8% | over_2.5 | 14.2% | under_2.5 | 85.8% |
most
| home | 34.6% | draw | 28.0% | away | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.1% | away_+2.5 | 94.9% | home_-1.5 | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.9% | home_-0.5 | 34.6% | away_+0.5 | 65.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.6% | away_-0.5 | 37.4% | home_+1.5 | 83.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.0% | home_+2.5 | 94.1% | away_-2.5 | 5.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.6% | exact_1 | 18.8% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.2% | draw | 39.1% | away | 15.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.2% | under_0.5 | 28.8% | over_1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.6% | over_2.5 | 13.1% | under_2.5 | 86.9% |
btts
| yes | 18.4% | no | 81.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 28.8% | exact_1 | 35.8% | exact_2 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.3% | exact_4plus | 3.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.3% | draw | 37.0% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.2% | under_0.5 | 22.8% | over_1.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.5% | over_2.5 | 18.6% | under_2.5 | 81.4% |
btts
| yes | 27.2% | no | 72.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.7% | H/D | 7.9% | H/A | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.1% | D/D | 14.5% | D/A | 13.6% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 2.8% | A/A | 11.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.8% | under_7.5 | 20.2% | over_8.5 | 69.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.3% | over_9.5 | 58.4% | under_9.5 | 41.6% |
| over_10.5 | 46.8% | under_10.5 | 53.3% | over_11.5 | 35.8% |
| under_11.5 | 64.2% | over_12.5 | 26.1% | under_12.5 | 73.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.1% | under_3.5 | 20.9% | over_4.5 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.7% | over_5.5 | 50.4% | under_5.5 | 49.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.1% | under_3.5 | 34.9% | over_4.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.8% | over_5.5 | 32.9% | under_5.5 | 67.2% |
most
| home | 56.5% | draw | 10.2% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.5% | away_+3.5 | 73.6% | home_-1.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.1% | home_-0.5 | 56.5% | away_+0.5 | 43.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.6% | under_22.5 | 41.4% | over_24.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.1% | over_26.5 | 33.9% | under_26.5 | 66.1% |
| over_28.5 | 23.6% | under_28.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.1% | under_10.5 | 27.9% | over_12.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.3% | over_14.5 | 39.4% | under_14.5 | 60.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.1% | under_10.5 | 51.9% | over_12.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.6% | over_14.5 | 17.2% | under_14.5 | 82.8% |
most
| home | 64.6% | draw | 5.8% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.2% | away_+4.5 | 60.8% | home_-2.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.0% | home_-0.5 | 64.6% | away_+0.5 | 35.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% | home_+2.5 | 80.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.5% | home_+4.5 | 88.2% | away_-4.5 | 11.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.8% | under_6.5 | 34.2% | over_7.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.2% | over_8.5 | 40.2% | under_8.5 | 59.8% |
| over_9.5 | 29.0% | under_9.5 | 71.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.6% | under_3.5 | 36.4% | over_4.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.7% | over_5.5 | 31.0% | under_5.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.0% | under_3.5 | 56.1% | over_4.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.1% | over_5.5 | 14.9% | under_5.5 | 85.1% |
most
| home | 57.4% | draw | 12.6% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.7% | away_+2.5 | 68.3% | home_-0.5 | 57.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.6% | home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.4% | away_-2.5 | 11.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.4% | under_2.5 | 28.6% | over_3.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.5% | over_4.5 | 31.2% | under_4.5 | 68.8% |
| over_5.5 | 16.9% | under_5.5 | 83.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.8% | under_1.5 | 50.2% | over_2.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.1% | under_1.5 | 40.0% | over_2.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.0% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 21.3% | away | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.9% | away_+1.5 | 84.1% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.7% | home_+0.5 | 53.6% | away_-0.5 | 46.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.6% | away_-1.5 | 26.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 60.6% | under_20.5 | 39.4% | over_22.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 55.1% | over_24.5 | 30.5% | under_24.5 | 69.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 63.3% | under_9.5 | 36.7% | over_11.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.0% | over_13.5 | 22.5% | under_13.5 | 77.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.9% | under_9.5 | 34.1% | over_11.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.1% | over_13.5 | 24.8% | under_13.5 | 75.2% |
most
| home | 44.0% | draw | 7.9% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.8% | away_+3.5 | 77.2% | home_-0.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.0% | home_+2.5 | 67.2% | away_-2.5 | 32.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.7% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.0% | no | 97.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.8% | no | 96.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Lincoln predictions · Portsmouth predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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