Birmingham vs Bristol City: model prediction
ChampionshipBirmingham or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Birmingham at 44.1%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 52.0% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Birmingham, that gap is the story." A measured edge to Birmingham: 44% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 22 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Birmingham at 55%. Caution noted. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 48%. Recent form reads W3 D3 L0 for Birmingham against W1 D2 L3 for Bristol City. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Birmingham, 1 draws and 2 for Bristol City, averaging 2.4 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
44.1%-11.2%
28.6%+4.5%
27.4%+6.8%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Birmingham 2 · 1 draws · Bristol City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.3% | Over 7.5 | 56.7% | Over 8.5 | 44.1% | Over 9.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Birmingham | 59.8% | Most: Bristol City | 28.1% | ||||
| Birmingham Over 4.2 | 50.7% | Bristol City Over 4.2 | 27.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.4% | Over 3.5 | 48.1% | Over 4.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Birmingham | 33.5% | Most: Bristol City | 44.7% | ||
| Birmingham Over 1.8 | 49.2% | Bristol City Over 1.8 | 57.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Birmingham clean sheet | 36.1% |
|---|---|
| Bristol City clean sheet | 25.7% |
| Birmingham win to nil | 26.2% |
| Bristol City win to nil | 15.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 44.1% | draw | 28.6% | away | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 72.6% | 12 | 71.4% | X2 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 61.7% | away | 38.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.1% | no | 51.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.2% | away | 25.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.3% | away | 15.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.0% | home_by_2 | 13.3% | home_by_3plus | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.0% | away_by_2 | 7.4% | away_by_3plus | 2.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.9% | 0-1 | 8.8% | 0-2 | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 1-1 | 13.5% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 2-1 | 8.7% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.9% | 3-1 | 4.0% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.1% | under_0.5 | 9.9% | over_1.5 | 69.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.7% | over_2.5 | 42.4% | under_2.5 | 57.6% |
| over_3.5 | 21.7% | under_3.5 | 78.4% | over_4.5 | 9.3% |
| under_4.5 | 90.7% | over_5.5 | 3.4% | under_5.5 | 96.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.3% | under_0.5 | 25.7% | over_1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.6% | over_2.5 | 15.7% | under_2.5 | 84.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.8% | under_0.5 | 36.2% | over_1.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.0% | over_2.5 | 8.3% | under_2.5 | 91.7% |
most
| home | 44.1% | draw | 28.6% | away | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.8% | away_+2.5 | 92.2% | home_-1.5 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.9% | home_-0.5 | 44.1% | away_+0.5 | 55.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.7% | away_-0.5 | 27.4% | home_+1.5 | 89.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.1% | away_-2.5 | 2.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.9% | exact_1 | 20.8% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.8% | exact_4 | 12.3% | exact_5 | 5.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.4% | draw | 39.1% | away | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.8% | under_0.5 | 26.2% | over_1.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.3% | over_2.5 | 15.2% | under_2.5 | 84.8% |
btts
| yes | 23.3% | no | 76.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.2% | exact_1 | 35.1% | exact_2 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.5% | exact_4plus | 4.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.9% | draw | 46.4% | away | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.2% | under_0.5 | 36.8% | over_1.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.6% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.0% |
btts
| yes | 15.2% | no | 84.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.3% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.1% | D/D | 18.1% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 18.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.0% | under_7.5 | 21.0% | over_8.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.3% | over_9.5 | 57.2% | under_9.5 | 42.8% |
| over_10.5 | 45.5% | under_10.5 | 54.5% | over_11.5 | 34.6% |
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_12.5 | 25.1% | under_12.5 | 74.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.1% | under_3.5 | 20.9% | over_4.5 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.7% | over_5.5 | 50.4% | under_5.5 | 49.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.5% | under_3.5 | 36.5% | over_4.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.7% | over_5.5 | 31.1% | under_5.5 | 68.9% |
most
| home | 57.7% | draw | 10.2% | away | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.3% | away_+3.5 | 72.7% | home_-1.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 57.7% | away_+0.5 | 42.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.9% | away_-0.5 | 32.1% | home_+1.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.8% | away_-3.5 | 10.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.9% | under_22.5 | 38.1% | over_24.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.7% | over_26.5 | 37.2% | under_26.5 | 62.8% |
| over_28.5 | 26.4% | under_28.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.9% | under_10.5 | 25.1% | over_12.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.9% | over_14.5 | 42.8% | under_14.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.4% | under_10.5 | 50.6% | over_12.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.4% | over_14.5 | 18.1% | under_14.5 | 81.9% |
most
| home | 66.1% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.1% | away_+4.5 | 58.9% | home_-2.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.2% | home_-0.5 | 66.1% | away_+0.5 | 33.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.8% | away_-0.5 | 28.2% | home_+2.5 | 81.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.5% | home_+4.5 | 88.8% | away_-4.5 | 11.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.3% | under_6.5 | 30.7% | over_7.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.3% | over_8.5 | 44.1% | under_8.5 | 55.9% |
| over_9.5 | 32.6% | under_9.5 | 67.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.4% | under_3.5 | 32.6% | over_4.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.3% | over_5.5 | 35.1% | under_5.5 | 64.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.0% | under_3.5 | 55.0% | over_4.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.2% | over_5.5 | 15.6% | under_5.5 | 84.5% |
most
| home | 59.8% | draw | 12.0% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.4% | away_+2.5 | 65.6% | home_-0.5 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.2% | home_+0.5 | 71.9% | away_-0.5 | 28.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.1% | away_-2.5 | 10.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.4% | under_2.5 | 30.6% | over_3.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 51.9% | over_4.5 | 29.0% | under_4.5 | 71.0% |
| over_5.5 | 15.4% | under_5.5 | 84.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.2% | under_1.5 | 50.8% | over_2.5 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.5% | under_1.5 | 42.5% | over_2.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.5% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 21.8% | away | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.4% | away_+1.5 | 83.6% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.5% | home_+0.5 | 55.3% | away_-0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.2% | away_-1.5 | 24.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.6% | under_20.5 | 43.4% | over_22.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.2% | over_24.5 | 26.9% | under_24.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 66.2% | under_9.5 | 33.8% | over_11.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.8% | over_13.5 | 25.1% | under_13.5 | 74.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 57.3% | under_9.5 | 42.7% | over_11.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.1% | over_13.5 | 17.8% | under_13.5 | 82.2% |
most
| home | 52.7% | draw | 7.9% | away | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.6% | away_+3.5 | 70.4% | home_-0.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.3% | home_+2.5 | 74.9% | away_-2.5 | 25.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.3% | no | 84.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Birmingham predictions · Bristol City predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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