Trabzonspor vs Buyuksehyr: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Trabzonspor or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Trabzonspor at 43.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 58.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Trabzonspor, that gap is the story." The model leans Trabzonspor at 43% when Trabzonspor host Buyuksehyr in the Süper Lig on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Trabzonspor at 47%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Trabzonspor against W4 D1 L1 for Buyuksehyr. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 draws and 0 for Buyuksehyr at 2.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.030 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
43.2%-3.7%
25.8%+0.5%
31.0%+3.2%
conservative EV -0.030 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Trabzonspor 4 · 1 draws · Buyuksehyr 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Trabzonspor
BuyuksehyrBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.4% | Over 7.5 | 62.7% | Over 8.5 | 50.5% | Over 9.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Trabzonspor | 54.9% | Most: Buyuksehyr | 33.0% | ||||
| Trabzonspor Over 4.2 | 51.7% | Buyuksehyr Over 4.2 | 35.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.2% | Over 3.5 | 62.2% | Over 4.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Trabzonspor | 30.2% | Most: Buyuksehyr | 50.5% | ||
| Trabzonspor Over 1.8 | 55.9% | Buyuksehyr Over 1.8 | 69.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Trabzonspor clean sheet | 27.1% |
|---|---|
| Buyuksehyr clean sheet | 20.7% |
| Trabzonspor win to nil | 20.9% |
| Buyuksehyr win to nil | 14.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 43.2% | draw | 25.8% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 69.0% | 12 | 74.2% | X2 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 58.2% | away | 41.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.2% | no | 41.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.3% | away | 20.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.0% | away | 14.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.1% | home_by_2 | 13.2% | home_by_3plus | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.3% | away_by_2 | 9.0% | away_by_3plus | 4.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.2% | 0-1 | 6.8% | 0-2 | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 1-1 | 12.1% | 1-2 | 7.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.8% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 4-1 | 1.9% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.8% | under_0.5 | 6.2% | over_1.5 | 78.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.3% | over_2.5 | 54.7% | under_2.5 | 45.3% |
| over_3.5 | 32.4% | under_3.5 | 67.6% | over_4.5 | 16.4% |
| under_4.5 | 83.7% | over_5.5 | 7.1% | under_5.5 | 92.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.2% | under_0.5 | 20.8% | over_1.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.4% | over_2.5 | 20.9% | under_2.5 | 79.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.7% | under_0.5 | 27.3% | over_1.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.7% | over_2.5 | 14.3% | under_2.5 | 85.7% |
most
| home | 43.2% | draw | 25.8% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.9% | away_+2.5 | 91.1% | home_-1.5 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.9% | home_-0.5 | 43.2% | away_+0.5 | 56.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+1.5 | 86.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.7% | home_+2.5 | 95.3% | away_-2.5 | 4.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.2% | exact_1 | 15.1% | exact_2 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 16.0% | exact_5 | 9.2% |
| exact_6 | 4.4% | exact_7plus | 2.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.0% | draw | 39.9% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.7% | under_0.5 | 27.3% | over_1.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.7% | over_2.5 | 14.2% | under_2.5 | 85.8% |
btts
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.3% | exact_1 | 35.4% | exact_2 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.0% | exact_4plus | 4.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.2% | draw | 34.6% | away | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.5% | under_0.5 | 20.5% | over_1.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.9% | over_2.5 | 21.3% | under_2.5 | 78.7% |
btts
| yes | 28.4% | no | 71.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.5% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.2% | D/D | 13.8% | D/A | 8.9% |
| A/H | 4.5% | A/D | 7.6% | A/A | 23.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.9% | under_7.5 | 27.1% | over_8.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.6% | over_9.5 | 49.3% | under_9.5 | 50.7% |
| over_10.5 | 37.7% | under_10.5 | 62.3% | over_11.5 | 27.5% |
| under_11.5 | 72.5% | over_12.5 | 19.1% | under_12.5 | 80.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.1% | under_3.5 | 27.9% | over_4.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.3% | over_5.5 | 41.5% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.9% | under_3.5 | 38.1% | over_4.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.0% | over_5.5 | 30.2% | under_5.5 | 69.8% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 10.6% | away | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.7% | away_+3.5 | 77.3% | home_-1.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.4% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% | away_+0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.0% | away_-0.5 | 37.0% | home_+1.5 | 72.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.3% | home_+3.5 | 87.3% | away_-3.5 | 12.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 67.3% | under_22.5 | 32.7% | over_24.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 44.4% | over_26.5 | 43.7% | under_26.5 | 56.3% |
| over_28.5 | 32.5% | under_28.5 | 67.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.7% | under_10.5 | 25.3% | over_12.5 | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.7% | over_14.5 | 43.4% | under_14.5 | 56.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.1% | under_10.5 | 41.9% | over_12.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.4% | over_14.5 | 25.7% | under_14.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 60.1% | draw | 5.8% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.2% | away_+4.5 | 63.8% | home_-2.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.0% | home_-0.5 | 60.1% | away_+0.5 | 39.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.2% | home_+2.5 | 76.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.8% | home_+4.5 | 84.6% | away_-4.5 | 15.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.4% | under_6.5 | 25.6% | over_7.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.3% | over_8.5 | 50.5% | under_8.5 | 49.5% |
| over_9.5 | 38.7% | under_9.5 | 61.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.3% | under_3.5 | 31.7% | over_4.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.3% | over_5.5 | 36.2% | under_5.5 | 63.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.4% | under_3.5 | 46.6% | over_4.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.3% | over_5.5 | 21.8% | under_5.5 | 78.2% |
most
| home | 54.9% | draw | 12.1% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.8% | away_+2.5 | 69.2% | home_-0.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.1% | home_+0.5 | 67.0% | away_-0.5 | 33.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.7% | away_-2.5 | 14.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.2% | under_2.5 | 19.8% | over_3.5 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 37.8% | over_4.5 | 42.9% | under_4.5 | 57.1% |
| over_5.5 | 26.3% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 55.9% | under_1.5 | 44.1% | over_2.5 | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 69.6% | under_1.5 | 30.4% | over_2.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 56.4% |
most
| home | 30.2% | draw | 19.3% | away | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.4% | away_+1.5 | 84.6% | home_-0.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.8% | home_+0.5 | 49.5% | away_-0.5 | 50.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.7% | away_-1.5 | 31.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.0% | under_20.5 | 15.0% | over_22.5 | 74.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.9% | over_24.5 | 60.5% | under_24.5 | 39.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.7% | under_9.5 | 20.3% | over_11.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.3% | over_13.5 | 39.9% | under_13.5 | 60.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.2% | under_9.5 | 15.8% | over_11.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.7% | over_13.5 | 47.0% | under_13.5 | 53.0% |
most
| home | 41.3% | draw | 7.3% | away | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.0% | away_+3.5 | 78.0% | home_-0.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.7% | home_+2.5 | 63.1% | away_-2.5 | 36.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 21.1% | no | 78.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Trabzonspor predictions · Buyuksehyr predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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