Alanyaspor vs Besiktas: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Besiktas
Alanyaspor or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Besiktas at 39.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Besiktas at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 23 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Besiktas higher (51%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. Form guide over the last six: Alanyaspor W1 D2 L3, Besiktas W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 4 draws and 0 for Besiktas over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.1%+9.0%
27.7%+2.5%
39.2%-11.5%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alanyaspor 1 · 4 draws · Besiktas 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Alanyaspor
BesiktasBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.7% | Over 7.5 | 63.1% | Over 8.5 | 50.8% | Over 9.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alanyaspor | 49.5% | Most: Besiktas | 38.1% | ||||
| Alanyaspor Over 4.2 | 48.2% | Besiktas Over 4.2 | 40.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.5% | Over 3.5 | 70.2% | Over 4.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alanyaspor | 44.0% | Most: Besiktas | 37.3% | ||
| Alanyaspor Over 1.8 | 70.9% | Besiktas Over 1.8 | 66.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Alanyaspor clean sheet | 25.9% |
|---|---|
| Besiktas clean sheet | 29.4% |
| Alanyaspor win to nil | 17.6% |
| Besiktas win to nil | 21.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.1% | draw | 27.8% | away | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 60.8% | 12 | 72.3% | X2 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 45.8% | away | 54.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.9% | no | 47.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.9% | away | 29.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.6% | away | 21.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.8% | home_by_2 | 9.6% | home_by_3plus | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.9% | away_by_2 | 11.7% | away_by_3plus | 6.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 9.7% | 0-2 | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 2-1 | 7.7% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.3% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.7% | over_2.5 | 47.5% | under_2.5 | 52.5% |
| over_3.5 | 25.8% | under_3.5 | 74.2% | over_4.5 | 11.9% |
| under_4.5 | 88.1% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.5% | under_0.5 | 29.5% | over_1.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.5% | over_2.5 | 12.5% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
most
| home | 33.1% | draw | 27.8% | away | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.7% | away_+2.5 | 95.3% | home_-1.5 | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.8% | home_-0.5 | 33.1% | away_+0.5 | 66.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.8% | away_-0.5 | 39.2% | home_+1.5 | 81.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.3% | home_+2.5 | 93.4% | away_-2.5 | 6.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.4% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.5% | draw | 41.6% | away | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.4% | under_0.5 | 29.6% | over_1.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.6% | over_2.5 | 12.4% | under_2.5 | 87.6% |
btts
| yes | 20.8% | no | 79.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.6% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.9% | exact_4plus | 3.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.3% | draw | 40.2% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.3% | under_0.5 | 27.7% | over_1.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.3% | over_2.5 | 13.9% | under_2.5 | 86.1% |
btts
| yes | 22.3% | no | 77.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.3% | H/D | 5.8% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.9% | D/D | 16.7% | D/A | 13.9% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 4.4% | A/A | 22.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.2% | under_7.5 | 28.8% | over_8.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.7% | over_9.5 | 47.1% | under_9.5 | 52.9% |
| over_10.5 | 35.6% | under_10.5 | 64.4% | over_11.5 | 25.7% |
| under_11.5 | 74.3% | over_12.5 | 17.6% | under_12.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.1% | under_3.5 | 27.9% | over_4.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.3% | over_5.5 | 41.5% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.1% | over_5.5 | 27.5% | under_5.5 | 72.6% |
most
| home | 54.3% | draw | 10.7% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.9% | away_+3.5 | 76.1% | home_-1.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 54.3% | away_+0.5 | 45.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.1% | home_+1.5 | 74.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.5% | home_+3.5 | 88.6% | away_-3.5 | 11.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.9% | under_22.5 | 34.1% | over_24.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.0% | over_26.5 | 42.1% | under_26.5 | 58.0% |
| over_28.5 | 31.1% | under_28.5 | 69.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.0% | under_10.5 | 27.0% | over_12.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.7% | over_14.5 | 41.3% | under_14.5 | 58.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.0% | under_10.5 | 42.0% | over_12.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.6% | over_14.5 | 25.6% | under_14.5 | 74.4% |
most
| home | 58.8% | draw | 5.9% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.8% | away_+4.5 | 65.2% | home_-2.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.4% | home_-0.5 | 58.8% | away_+0.5 | 41.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+2.5 | 75.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.8% | home_+4.5 | 83.8% | away_-4.5 | 16.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.7% | under_6.5 | 25.3% | over_7.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.9% | over_8.5 | 50.8% | under_8.5 | 49.2% |
| over_9.5 | 39.1% | under_9.5 | 61.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.3% | under_3.5 | 34.7% | over_4.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.8% | over_5.5 | 32.8% | under_5.5 | 67.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.0% | over_5.5 | 25.4% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
most
| home | 49.5% | draw | 12.4% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.3% | away_+2.5 | 73.7% | home_-0.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.5% | home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.3% | away_-2.5 | 17.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.5% | under_2.5 | 14.5% | over_3.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.8% | over_4.5 | 52.0% | under_4.5 | 48.0% |
| over_5.5 | 34.5% | under_5.5 | 65.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 70.9% | under_1.5 | 29.1% | over_2.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.8% | under_1.5 | 33.2% | over_2.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.8% |
most
| home | 44.0% | draw | 18.7% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 26.7% | away_+1.5 | 73.3% | home_-0.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.0% | home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.7% | away_-1.5 | 21.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.8% | under_20.5 | 14.2% | over_22.5 | 75.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 24.9% | over_24.5 | 61.8% | under_24.5 | 38.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.3% | under_9.5 | 20.7% | over_11.5 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 39.9% | over_13.5 | 39.3% | under_13.5 | 60.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 85.6% | under_9.5 | 14.4% | over_11.5 | 69.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.5% | over_13.5 | 49.6% | under_13.5 | 50.4% |
most
| home | 39.2% | draw | 7.2% | away | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.4% | away_+3.5 | 79.6% | home_-0.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.8% | home_+2.5 | 61.0% | away_-2.5 | 39.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.4% | no | 94.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.6% | no | 91.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Alanyaspor predictions · Besiktas predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets