Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia: model prediction
Primeira LigaGil Vicente or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Gil Vicente at 58.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 53.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"58% on Gil Vicente is a measurement, not a promise." Gil Vicente go into this Primeira Liga meeting with Casa Pia on 24 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 58%. The market broadly agrees, pricing Gil Vicente at 57%. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. Schedule edge: Gil Vicente have had 7 more days of rest than Casa Pia. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Gil Vicente, 3 draws and 1 for Casa Pia at 1.6 goals per match. The run in: Gil Vicente arrive W2 D1 L3, Casa Pia W1 D1 L4. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
58.2%+1.0%
24.8%-1.3%
17.1%+0.3%
value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gil Vicente 1 · 3 draws · Casa Pia 1 · 1.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Gil Vicente
Casa PiaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.3% | Over 7.5 | 54.3% | Over 8.5 | 41.4% | Over 9.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gil Vicente | 57.7% | Most: Casa Pia | 29.7% | ||||
| Gil Vicente Over 4.2 | 47.5% | Casa Pia Over 4.2 | 27.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.5% | Over 3.5 | 68.7% | Over 4.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gil Vicente | 34.6% | Most: Casa Pia | 46.6% | ||
| Gil Vicente Over 1.8 | 63.8% | Casa Pia Over 1.8 | 71.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Gil Vicente clean sheet | 43.9% |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 18.1% |
| Gil Vicente win to nil | 35.4% |
| Casa Pia win to nil | 9.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.2% | draw | 24.8% | away | 17.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 83.0% | 12 | 75.2% | X2 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 77.3% | away | 22.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.2% | no | 53.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 44.3% | away | 18.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 35.8% | away | 9.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 25.2% | home_by_2 | 18.2% | home_by_3plus | 14.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.7% | away_by_2 | 4.1% | away_by_3plus | 1.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 0-1 | 6.0% | 0-2 | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 1-1 | 11.7% | 1-2 | 4.5% |
| 1-3 | 1.2% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 11.7% | 2-1 | 9.5% | 2-2 | 3.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 6.7% | 3-1 | 5.4% | 3-2 | 2.2% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 4-1 | 2.3% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.0% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.4% | under_0.5 | 8.6% | over_1.5 | 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.7% | over_2.5 | 46.3% | under_2.5 | 53.7% |
| over_3.5 | 24.8% | under_3.5 | 75.2% | over_4.5 | 11.2% |
| under_4.5 | 88.8% | over_5.5 | 4.4% | under_5.5 | 95.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.9% | under_0.5 | 18.1% | over_1.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.0% | over_2.5 | 24.6% | under_2.5 | 75.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 55.7% | under_0.5 | 44.3% | over_1.5 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 80.4% | over_2.5 | 5.0% | under_2.5 | 95.0% |
most
| home | 58.2% | draw | 24.8% | away | 17.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 14.8% | away_+2.5 | 85.2% | home_-1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 67.0% | home_-0.5 | 58.2% | away_+0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 83.0% | away_-0.5 | 17.1% | home_+1.5 | 94.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.4% | home_+2.5 | 98.8% | away_-2.5 | 1.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.6% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.6% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.2% | draw | 43.4% | away | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.0% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.7% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.5% |
btts
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.0% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.1% | exact_4plus | 2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 49.9% | draw | 34.9% | away | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.5% | over_1.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.6% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
btts
| yes | 22.2% | no | 77.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 35.7% | H/D | 3.7% | H/A | 0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 21.6% | D/D | 15.1% | D/A | 6.6% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 4.4% | A/A | 9.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.5% | under_7.5 | 30.6% | over_8.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.9% | over_9.5 | 46.6% | under_9.5 | 53.4% |
| over_10.5 | 35.8% | under_10.5 | 64.2% | over_11.5 | 26.4% |
| under_11.5 | 73.6% | over_12.5 | 18.7% | under_12.5 | 81.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.0% | under_3.5 | 30.0% | over_4.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.7% | over_5.5 | 41.1% | under_5.5 | 58.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.4% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.1% |
most
| home | 53.9% | draw | 10.2% | away | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.1% | home_-1.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.9% | away_+0.5 | 46.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.0% | away_-0.5 | 36.0% | home_+1.5 | 73.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.8% | home_+3.5 | 87.2% | away_-3.5 | 12.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.4% | under_22.5 | 44.6% | over_24.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.8% | over_26.5 | 32.0% | under_26.5 | 68.0% |
| over_28.5 | 22.4% | under_28.5 | 77.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.3% | under_10.5 | 31.7% | over_12.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.8% | over_14.5 | 36.7% | under_14.5 | 63.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.2% | under_10.5 | 52.8% | over_12.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.6% | over_14.5 | 17.8% | under_14.5 | 82.2% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 5.8% | away | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.8% | away_+4.5 | 62.2% | home_-2.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 32.0% | home_+2.5 | 78.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.7% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.3% | under_6.5 | 32.8% | over_7.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.7% | over_8.5 | 41.4% | under_8.5 | 58.6% |
| over_9.5 | 30.0% | under_9.5 | 70.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.8% | under_3.5 | 35.2% | over_4.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.5% | over_5.5 | 31.9% | under_5.5 | 68.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.8% | under_3.5 | 55.2% | over_4.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.5% | over_5.5 | 15.2% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
most
| home | 57.7% | draw | 12.6% | away | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.9% | away_+2.5 | 68.1% | home_-0.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.3% | home_+0.5 | 70.3% | away_-0.5 | 29.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.6% | away_-2.5 | 11.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.5% | under_2.5 | 15.5% | over_3.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 31.3% | over_4.5 | 50.1% | under_4.5 | 49.9% |
| over_5.5 | 32.8% | under_5.5 | 67.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.8% | under_1.5 | 36.2% | over_2.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.4% | under_1.5 | 28.6% | over_2.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.2% |
most
| home | 34.6% | draw | 18.8% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.1% | away_+1.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.4% | home_+0.5 | 53.4% | away_-0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.3% | away_-1.5 | 28.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.9% | under_20.5 | 12.1% | over_22.5 | 79.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 20.5% | over_24.5 | 68.7% | under_24.5 | 31.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.7% | under_9.5 | 20.3% | over_11.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.0% | over_13.5 | 44.8% | under_13.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.9% | under_9.5 | 13.1% | over_11.5 | 73.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 26.3% | over_13.5 | 57.1% | under_13.5 | 42.9% |
most
| home | 38.3% | draw | 6.2% | away | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.9% | away_+3.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.7% | home_+2.5 | 57.3% | away_-2.5 | 42.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.8% | no | 79.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.1% | no | 94.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 16.5% | no | 83.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Gil Vicente predictions · Casa Pia predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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