Santa Clara vs Famalicao: model prediction
Primeira LigaUnder 2.5 goals
Santa Clara or draw
Draw or Famalicao
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Santa Clara at 34.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 66.1% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 58.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Santa Clara at 34% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 35%. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 34% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 42%. • Form guide over the last six: Santa Clara W3 D2 L1, Famalicao W2 D3 L1. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Santa Clara, 0 draws and 3 for Famalicao at 2.8 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
34.2%-0.7%
31.7%-0.6%
34.1%+1.4%
value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Santa Clara 2 · 0 draws · Famalicao 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Santa Clara
FamalicaoBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.8% | Over 7.5 | 49.3% | Over 8.5 | 36.5% | Over 9.5 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santa Clara | 49.3% | Most: Famalicao | 37.1% | ||||
| Santa Clara Over 4.2 | 38.4% | Famalicao Over 4.2 | 29.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.1% | Over 3.5 | 74.5% | Over 4.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santa Clara | 40.9% | Most: Famalicao | 40.9% | ||
| Santa Clara Over 1.8 | 72.0% | Famalicao Over 1.8 | 72.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 35.8% |
|---|---|
| Famalicao clean sheet | 35.7% |
| Santa Clara win to nil | 22.3% |
| Famalicao win to nil | 22.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 34.2% | draw | 31.7% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 65.9% | 12 | 68.3% | X2 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 50.0% | away | 50.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 42.0% | no | 58.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.8% | away | 35.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 22.3% | away | 22.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.8% | home_by_2 | 9.5% | home_by_3plus | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.8% | away_by_2 | 9.5% | away_by_3plus | 3.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 13.5% | 0-1 | 12.5% | 0-2 | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 1-1 | 14.2% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 2-1 | 7.0% | 2-2 | 3.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.3% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 1.2% |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 86.5% | under_0.5 | 13.5% | over_1.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.4% | over_2.5 | 33.9% | under_2.5 | 66.1% |
| over_3.5 | 15.4% | under_3.5 | 84.6% | over_4.5 | 5.8% |
| under_4.5 | 94.2% | over_5.5 | 1.9% | under_5.5 | 98.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 47.8% | even | 52.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 64.3% | under_0.5 | 35.7% | over_1.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.5% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.2% | under_0.5 | 35.8% | over_1.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.5% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
most
| home | 34.2% | draw | 31.7% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.9% | away_+2.5 | 96.1% | home_-1.5 | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.6% | home_-0.5 | 34.2% | away_+0.5 | 65.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% | home_+1.5 | 86.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.4% | home_+2.5 | 96.1% | away_-2.5 | 3.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 13.5% | exact_1 | 24.9% | exact_2 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 18.5% | exact_4 | 9.5% | exact_5 | 3.9% |
| exact_6 | 1.4% | exact_7plus | 0.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.0% | draw | 47.9% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.3% | under_0.5 | 38.7% | over_1.5 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.5% | over_2.5 | 7.1% | under_2.5 | 92.9% |
btts
| yes | 14.2% | no | 85.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 38.7% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 17.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.5% | exact_4plus | 1.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.6% | draw | 45.8% | away | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.3% | under_0.5 | 35.7% | over_1.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.5% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
btts
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.9% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.7% | D/D | 22.0% | D/A | 13.2% |
| A/H | 1.2% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 19.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.8% | under_7.5 | 30.2% | over_8.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.5% | over_9.5 | 47.0% | under_9.5 | 53.0% |
| over_10.5 | 36.2% | under_10.5 | 63.8% | over_11.5 | 26.7% |
| under_11.5 | 73.3% | over_12.5 | 19.0% | under_12.5 | 81.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.8% | under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.4% | over_5.5 | 37.4% | under_5.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.0% | under_3.5 | 38.0% | over_4.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 32.2% | under_5.5 | 67.8% |
most
| home | 48.4% | draw | 10.3% | away | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.8% | away_+3.5 | 79.1% | home_-1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 61.8% | home_-0.5 | 48.4% | away_+0.5 | 51.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.7% | away_-0.5 | 41.3% | home_+1.5 | 68.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.6% | home_+3.5 | 83.9% | away_-3.5 | 16.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 50.3% | under_22.5 | 49.7% | over_24.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 61.8% | over_26.5 | 27.5% | under_26.5 | 72.5% |
| over_28.5 | 18.7% | under_28.5 | 81.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 63.2% | under_10.5 | 36.8% | over_12.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.5% | over_14.5 | 31.4% | under_14.5 | 68.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.9% | under_10.5 | 54.1% | over_12.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.8% | over_14.5 | 16.9% | under_14.5 | 83.1% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 6.1% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.3% | away_+4.5 | 65.7% | home_-2.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.4% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% | away_+0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.3% | away_-0.5 | 34.7% | home_+2.5 | 76.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.8% | home_+4.5 | 84.9% | away_-4.5 | 15.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.8% | under_6.5 | 37.2% | over_7.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.7% | over_8.5 | 36.5% | under_8.5 | 63.5% |
| over_9.5 | 25.6% | under_9.5 | 74.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.3% | under_3.5 | 43.7% | over_4.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.6% | over_5.5 | 23.8% | under_5.5 | 76.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.5% | under_3.5 | 52.5% | over_4.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.1% | over_5.5 | 17.0% | under_5.5 | 83.0% |
most
| home | 49.3% | draw | 13.6% | away | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.2% | away_+2.5 | 75.8% | home_-0.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.7% | home_+0.5 | 62.9% | away_-0.5 | 37.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.5% | away_-2.5 | 15.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.1% | under_2.5 | 11.9% | over_3.5 | 74.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 25.5% | over_4.5 | 57.2% | under_4.5 | 42.8% |
| over_5.5 | 39.7% | under_5.5 | 60.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 72.0% | under_1.5 | 28.0% | over_2.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.0% | under_1.5 | 28.0% | over_2.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.4% |
most
| home | 40.9% | draw | 18.2% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.6% | away_+1.5 | 75.4% | home_-0.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.1% | home_+0.5 | 59.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.4% | away_-1.5 | 24.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 92.0% | under_20.5 | 8.0% | over_22.5 | 85.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 14.4% | over_24.5 | 76.7% | under_24.5 | 23.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 90.0% | under_9.5 | 10.0% | over_11.5 | 78.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 21.2% | over_13.5 | 63.6% | under_13.5 | 36.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.2% | under_9.5 | 15.8% | over_11.5 | 69.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.5% | over_13.5 | 52.0% | under_13.5 | 48.0% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 6.1% | away | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 36.7% | away_+3.5 | 63.3% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.8% | home_+2.5 | 72.6% | away_-2.5 | 27.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.8% | no | 85.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.2% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Santa Clara predictions · Famalicao predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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