Troyes vs Paris FC prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

By /

Troyes vs Paris FC: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Troyes

LLDLD

Full time0-0Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK
Paris FC

WLWLW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Draw or Paris FC

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Troyes 0-0 Paris FC
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
0 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Paris FC at 45.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.1% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 56.0% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris FCWin probability
45.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Paris FC71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners59.7%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Paris FC, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Paris FC at 45% for 22 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Our number sits above the market's 42% for Paris FC. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Schedule edge: Troyes have had 1079 more days of rest than Paris FC. As a promoted side, Troyes carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Troyes arrive W0 D2 L4, Paris FC W4 D0 L2. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Paris FC win45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners38.7%@ 2.58
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.0%@ 1.79
Troyes or draw54.6%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01
0-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.94
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 10.95

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Troyes

28.7%-1.9%

Draw

25.9%-1.9%

Paris FC

45.4%+3.7%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.7%

Good chance

Over 9.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.5%

Low chance

Most cornersTroyes60.5%Paris FC29.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.8%2.552.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

TroyesLLDLD
Paris FCWLWLW

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Luca KoleoshoParis FC · key player
To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target46.5%

@ 2.15

2+ shots28.7%

@ 3.48

Shots/90 2.96SoT/90 1.74Goals/90 0.52
Jean-Phillipe KrassoParis FC · in form
To score7.8%

@ 12.82

1+ on target32.9%

@ 3.04

2+ shots29.4%

@ 3.40

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.17
Marshall MunetsiParis FC · in form
To score23.7%

@ 4.22

1+ on target45.0%

@ 2.22

2+ shots36.2%

@ 2.76

Shots/90 1.74SoT/90 0.82Goals/90 0.37

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Troyes win3.103.48
Draw3.403.86
Paris FC win2.302.20
Over 2.5 goals1.731.92
Under 2.5 goals2.102.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Troyes win3.36
Draw3.80
Paris FC win2.28
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.92
Over 3.5 goals3.34
Troyes most3.36
Paris FC most2.28

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.00
Over 10.5 corners2.60
Troyes most1.65
Paris FC most3.42

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.00
Over 4.5 cards3.26
Over 5.5 cards6.03
Troyes most3.51
Paris FC most1.98

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
Troyes most1.84
Paris FC most3.00

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.64
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.79
Over 28.5 shots3.97
Troyes most1.61
Paris FC most3.13

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.08
Over 24.5 fouls2.95
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.9% Over 7.5 60.8% Over 8.5 48.1% Over 9.5 36.2%
Most: Troyes 54.3% Most: Paris FC 33.3%
Troyes Over 4.2 49.7% Paris FC Over 4.2 34.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.0% Over 3.5 50.0% Over 4.5 30.7%
Most: Troyes 28.5% Most: Paris FC 50.5%
Troyes Over 1.8 46.1% Paris FC Over 1.8 62.4%

Paris FC: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Luca Koleosho 2.96 1.74 0.52 46.5% 28.7% 17.0%
Jean-Phillipe Krasso 2.25 0.83 0.17 32.9% 29.4% 7.8%
Marshall Munetsi 1.74 0.82 0.37 45.0% 36.2% 23.7%
Ilan Kebbal 2 0.8 0.36 49.8% 51.4% 26.7%
Willem Geubbels 2.67 0.8 0.44 31.3% 35.6% 18.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Troyes clean sheet 21.5%
Paris FC clean sheet 29.3%
Troyes win to nil 14.6%
Paris FC win to nil 22.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.8% draw 26.3% away 43.9%
double_chance
1X 56.1% 12 73.7% X2 70.2%
dnb
home 40.4% away 59.6%
btts
yes 56.0% no 44.0%
clean_sheet
home 21.5% away 29.4%
win_to_nil
home 14.6% away 22.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.1% home_by_2 8.5% home_by_3plus 4.2%
away_by_1 21.6% away_by_2 13.4% away_by_3plus 8.9%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 7.5%
0-3 3.8% 0-4 1.5% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.1% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 3.0% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.8%
under_1.5 23.2% over_2.5 52.1% under_2.5 47.9%
over_3.5 29.9% under_3.5 70.1% over_4.5 14.6%
under_4.5 85.4% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.6%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
team_away
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.5% over_1.5 45.4%
under_1.5 54.6% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
most
home 29.8% draw 26.3% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.2% away_+2.5 95.9% home_-1.5 12.7%
away_+1.5 87.3% home_-0.5 29.8% away_+0.5 70.2%
home_+0.5 56.1% away_-0.5 43.9% home_+1.5 77.7%
away_-1.5 22.3% home_+2.5 91.1% away_-2.5 8.9%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.3% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.3% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.8% draw 42.3% away 30.0%
total
over_0.5 69.4% under_0.5 30.6% over_1.5 33.2%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
btts
yes 20.0% no 80.1%
total_exact
exact_0 30.6% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 8.5% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.7% draw 34.8% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.3%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3% under_2.5 77.7%
btts
yes 30.6% no 69.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.5% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.8%
D/H 15.9% D/D 14.7% D/A 11.6%
A/H 3.2% A/D 6.0% A/A 20.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.6% under_7.5 26.4% over_8.5 62.2%
under_8.5 37.9% over_9.5 50.1% under_9.5 49.9%
over_10.5 38.4% under_10.5 61.6% over_11.5 28.1%
under_11.5 71.9% over_12.5 19.6% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.1% under_3.5 22.9% over_4.5 62.9%
under_4.5 37.1% over_5.5 47.9% under_5.5 52.1%
team_away
over_3.5 56.2% under_3.5 43.8% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 24.6% under_5.5 75.4%
most
home 60.6% draw 10.1% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.1% away_+3.5 70.9% home_-1.5 49.7%
away_+1.5 50.3% home_-0.5 60.6% away_+0.5 39.4%
home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3% home_+1.5 79.5%
away_-1.5 20.5% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.8% under_22.5 39.2% over_24.5 48.1%
under_24.5 51.9% over_26.5 35.9% under_26.5 64.1%
over_28.5 25.2% under_28.5 74.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.1% under_10.5 27.9% over_12.5 55.5%
under_12.5 44.5% over_14.5 38.9% under_14.5 61.1%
team_away
over_10.5 52.0% under_10.5 48.0% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.7% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 62.0% draw 6.0% away 32.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.6% away_+4.5 63.4% home_-2.5 49.3%
away_+2.5 50.7% home_-0.5 62.0% away_+0.5 38.0%
home_+0.5 68.0% away_-0.5 32.0% home_+2.5 78.6%
away_-2.5 21.4% home_+4.5 86.8% away_-4.5 13.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.9% under_6.5 27.1% over_7.5 60.8%
under_7.5 39.3% over_8.5 48.1% under_8.5 51.9%
over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.9% under_3.5 33.1% over_4.5 49.7%
under_4.5 50.3% over_5.5 33.9% under_5.5 66.1%
team_away
over_3.5 52.5% under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 34.5%
under_4.5 65.5% over_5.5 20.6% under_5.5 79.4%
most
home 54.3% draw 12.5% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.6% away_+2.5 70.4% home_-0.5 54.3%
away_+0.5 45.7% home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3%
home_+2.5 86.0% away_-2.5 14.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.0% under_2.5 29.0% over_3.5 50.0%
under_3.5 50.0% over_4.5 30.7% under_4.5 69.3%
over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 46.2% under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.6%
under_2.5 79.4%
team_away
over_1.5 62.4% under_1.5 37.6% over_2.5 35.4%
under_2.5 64.6%
most
home 28.5% draw 20.9% away 50.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.3% away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 28.5%
away_+0.5 71.5% home_+0.5 49.5% away_-0.5 50.5%
home_+1.5 70.1% away_-1.5 29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 62.8% under_20.5 37.2% over_22.5 48.0%
under_22.5 52.0% over_24.5 33.9% under_24.5 66.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.5% under_9.5 34.6% over_11.5 44.4%
under_11.5 55.7% over_13.5 26.0% under_13.5 74.0%
team_away
over_9.5 65.9% under_9.5 34.1% over_11.5 44.9%
under_11.5 55.1% over_13.5 26.4% under_13.5 73.6%
most
home 45.9% draw 7.5% away 46.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-0.5 45.9%
away_+0.5 54.1% home_+2.5 67.8% away_-2.5 32.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.7% no 81.3%
home
yes 6.3% no 93.7%
away
yes 13.3% no 86.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Troyes predictions · Paris FC predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 1TroyesParis FCTrack record