Elche vs Barcelona: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Aug 2026

La Liga

Elche

DLWDD

Full time0-5Sun, 23 Aug 202620:30UK27°C · Cloudy

Barcelona

WWLWL

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

78%

Draw or Barcelona

61%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Elche 0-5 Barcelona

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Barcelona at 56.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 61.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 60.0% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

BarcelonaWin probability

56.6%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.21

Draw or Barcelona78.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.28

Over 2.5 goals61.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Barcelona carry a 57% win probability against Elche on 23 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Barcelona higher (75%) than our model does. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 60%. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Elche, 0 draws and 5 for Barcelona, averaging 3.6 goals a game. Fatigue may matter, with Elche 86 days shorter on recovery than Barcelona. Form guide over the last six: Elche W1 D3 L2, Barcelona W4 D0 L2. Rafa Mir drives the home shot volume, 1.8 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Elche or draw43.4%@ 2.31

Over 10.5 corners38.7%@ 2.58

Medium risk

Both teams to score60.0%@ 1.67

Over 8.5 corners59.8%@ 1.67

Over 9.5 corners49.0%@ 2.04

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.62

1-2 correct score9.8%@ 10.20

0-2 correct score8.4%@ 11.96

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Elche

21.7%+12.1%

Draw

21.7%+5.9%

Barcelona

56.6%-18.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.7%

High probability

Over 2.561.0%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes60.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.8%

Good chance

Over 9.549.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.6%

Low chance

Most cornersElche52.5%Barcelona36.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.3%

Good chance

Over 26.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.7%2.561.0%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.561.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ElcheDLWDD

BarcelonaWWLWL

Last 5 meetings: Elche 0 · 0 draws · Barcelona 5 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-01-31Elche 1-3 Barcelona

2025-11-02Barcelona 3-1 Elche

2023-04-01Elche 0-4 Barcelona

2022-09-17Barcelona 3-0 Elche

2022-03-06Elche 1-2 Barcelona

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Rafa MirElche · key player

To score25.5%

@ 3.92

1+ on target73.7%

@ 1.36

2+ shots72.5%

@ 1.38

Shots/90 3.39SoT/90 1.77Goals/90 0.39

Roony BardghjiBarcelona · key player

To score4.7%

@ 21.28

1+ on target43.4%

@ 2.30

2+ shots28.2%

@ 3.55

Shots/90 3.24SoT/90 1.76Goals/90 0.15

André SilvaElche · in form

To score27.4%

@ 3.65

1+ on target59.6%

@ 1.68

2+ shots54.8%

@ 1.82

Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.36Goals/90 0.48

Ferrán TorresBarcelona · in form

To score35.7%

@ 2.80

1+ on target61.9%

@ 1.62

2+ shots58.5%

@ 1.71

Shots/90 3.43SoT/90 1.68Goals/90 0.77

Alvaro RodríguezElche · in form

To score18.8%

@ 5.32

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.29

Robert LewandowskiBarcelona · in form

To score45.4%

@ 2.20

1+ on target68.0%

@ 1.47

2+ shots75.5%

@ 1.32

Shots/90 3.68SoT/90 1.54Goals/90 0.82

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Elche win9.004.61

Draw5.754.61

Barcelona win1.301.77

Over 2.5 goals1.441.64

Under 2.5 goals2.752.56

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Elche win4.61

Draw4.42

Barcelona win1.80

Both teams to score1.67

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21

Over 2.5 goals1.64

Over 3.5 goals2.58

Over 4.5 goals4.72

Elche most4.61

Barcelona most1.80

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36

Over 8.5 corners1.60

Over 9.5 corners1.99

Over 10.5 corners2.60

Elche most1.90

Barcelona most2.73

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27

Over 3.5 cards1.65

Over 4.5 cards2.41

Over 5.5 cards3.93

Elche most2.50

Barcelona most2.49

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30

Over 7.5 SoT1.52

Over 8.5 SoT1.87

Over 9.5 SoT2.42

Elche most2.15

Barcelona most2.44

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.57

Over 24.5 shots1.95

Over 26.5 shots2.55

Over 28.5 shots3.54

Elche most1.88

Barcelona most2.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.30

Over 22.5 fouls1.56

Over 24.5 fouls1.99

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	77.1%	Over 7.5	65.7%	Over 8.5	53.4%	Over 9.5	41.3%
Most: Elche	46.4%	Most: Barcelona	41.0%
Elche Over 4.2	48.0%	Barcelona Over 4.2	44.1%

Cards

Over 2.5	78.7%	Over 3.5	60.5%	Over 4.5	41.5%
Most: Elche	40.0%	Most: Barcelona	40.2%
Elche Over 1.8	61.7%	Barcelona Over 1.8	61.8%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Rafa Mir	3.39	1.77	0.39	73.7%	72.5%	25.5%
André Silva	2.76	1.36	0.48	59.6%	54.8%	27.4%
Alvaro Rodríguez	3.03	0.98	0.29	50.6%	64.0%	18.8%
Hector Fort	2.26	0.94	0.38	30.0%	21.2%	13.4%
John Donald	0.85	0.28	0.14	9.0%	3.4%	4.6%

Barcelona: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Roony Bardghji	3.24	1.76	0.15	43.4%	28.2%	4.7%
Ferrán Torres	3.43	1.68	0.77	61.9%	58.5%	35.7%
Robert Lewandowski	3.68	1.54	0.82	68.0%	75.5%	45.4%
Lamine Yamal	4.55	1.45	0.44	73.3%	91.8%	33.0%
Marcus Rashford	3.93	1.4	0.41	57.1%	68.6%	21.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Elche clean sheet	13.8%
Barcelona clean sheet	30.5%
Elche win to nil	9.0%
Barcelona win to nil	25.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	21.7%	draw	22.7%	away	55.7%

double_chance

1X	44.3%	12	77.3%	X2	78.3%

dnb

home	28.0%	away	72.0%

btts

yes	60.0%	no	40.0%

clean_sheet

home	13.8%	away	31.0%

win_to_nil

home	9.0%	away	26.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	13.1%	home_by_2	6.0%	home_by_3plus	2.7%
away_by_1	22.4%	away_by_2	17.1%	away_by_3plus	16.2%

correct_score

0-0	4.8%	0-1	8.0%	0-2	8.4%
0-3	5.5%	0-4	2.8%	0-5	1.1%
1-0	4.5%	1-1	10.4%	1-2	9.8%
1-3	6.5%	1-4	3.2%	1-5	1.3%
2-0	2.9%	2-1	5.8%	2-2	5.7%
2-3	3.8%	2-4	1.9%	2-5	0.8%
3-0	1.2%	3-1	2.3%	3-2	2.2%
3-3	1.5%	3-4	0.7%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.3%	4-1	0.7%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.8%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.4%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.2%	under_0.5	4.8%	over_1.5	82.7%
under_1.5	17.3%	over_2.5	61.0%	under_2.5	39.0%
over_3.5	38.8%	under_3.5	61.3%	over_4.5	21.2%
under_4.5	78.8%	over_5.5	10.1%	under_5.5	89.9%

odd_even

odd	48.9%	even	51.1%

team_home

over_0.5	69.0%	under_0.5	31.0%	over_1.5	32.7%
under_1.5	67.3%	over_2.5	11.5%	under_2.5	88.6%

team_away

over_0.5	86.2%	under_0.5	13.8%	over_1.5	58.9%
under_1.5	41.1%	over_2.5	31.9%	under_2.5	68.1%

most

home	21.7%	draw	22.7%	away	55.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	2.7%	away_+2.5	97.4%	home_-1.5	8.6%
away_+1.5	91.4%	home_-0.5	21.7%	away_+0.5	78.3%
home_+0.5	44.3%	away_-0.5	55.7%	home_+1.5	66.7%
away_-1.5	33.3%	home_+2.5	83.8%	away_-2.5	16.2%

total_exact

exact_0	4.8%	exact_1	12.5%	exact_2	21.7%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	17.6%	exact_5	11.1%
exact_6	5.9%	exact_7plus	4.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.7%	draw	36.8%	away	42.5%

total

over_0.5	76.0%	under_0.5	24.0%	over_1.5	41.8%
under_1.5	58.2%	over_2.5	17.3%	under_2.5	82.7%

btts

yes	24.4%	no	75.6%

total_exact

exact_0	24.0%	exact_1	34.2%	exact_2	24.5%
exact_3	11.6%	exact_4plus	5.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.9%	draw	32.7%	away	46.4%

total

over_0.5	81.7%	under_0.5	18.3%	over_1.5	50.6%
under_1.5	49.4%	over_2.5	24.2%	under_2.5	75.8%

btts

yes	30.5%	no	69.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	12.5%	H/D	4.9%	H/A	3.3%
D/H	7.7%	D/D	12.0%	D/A	17.1%
A/H	1.6%	A/D	4.7%	A/A	36.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.8%	under_7.5	26.2%	over_8.5	62.3%
under_8.5	37.7%	over_9.5	50.2%	under_9.5	49.8%
over_10.5	38.5%	under_10.5	61.5%	over_11.5	28.1%
under_11.5	71.9%	over_12.5	19.5%	under_12.5	80.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.0%	under_3.5	27.1%	over_4.5	57.6%
under_4.5	42.4%	over_5.5	42.2%	under_5.5	57.8%

team_away

over_3.5	62.5%	under_3.5	37.5%	over_4.5	45.4%
under_4.5	54.6%	over_5.5	30.4%	under_5.5	69.6%

most

home	52.6%	draw	10.7%	away	36.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.7%	away_+3.5	77.3%	home_-1.5	41.8%
away_+1.5	58.2%	home_-0.5	52.6%	away_+0.5	47.4%
home_+0.5	63.3%	away_-0.5	36.7%	home_+1.5	73.1%
away_-1.5	26.9%	home_+3.5	87.7%	away_-3.5	12.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.7%	under_22.5	36.3%	over_24.5	51.3%
under_24.5	48.7%	over_26.5	39.2%	under_26.5	60.9%
over_28.5	28.2%	under_28.5	71.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	68.7%	under_10.5	31.3%	over_12.5	51.6%
under_12.5	48.4%	over_14.5	35.3%	under_14.5	64.7%

team_away

over_10.5	60.6%	under_10.5	39.4%	over_12.5	42.6%
under_12.5	57.4%	over_14.5	27.1%	under_14.5	72.9%

most

home	53.2%	draw	6.2%	away	40.6%

handicap

home_-4.5	29.0%	away_+4.5	71.0%	home_-2.5	40.6%
away_+2.5	59.4%	home_-0.5	53.2%	away_+0.5	46.8%
home_+0.5	59.4%	away_-0.5	40.6%	home_+2.5	71.1%
away_-2.5	28.9%	home_+4.5	80.8%	away_-4.5	19.2%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	77.1%	under_6.5	22.9%	over_7.5	65.8%
under_7.5	34.3%	over_8.5	53.4%	under_8.5	46.6%
over_9.5	41.3%	under_9.5	58.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.5%	under_3.5	34.5%	over_4.5	48.0%
under_4.5	52.0%	over_5.5	32.2%	under_5.5	67.8%

team_away

over_3.5	61.9%	under_3.5	38.1%	over_4.5	44.1%
under_4.5	56.0%	over_5.5	28.6%	under_5.5	71.4%

most

home	46.4%	draw	12.6%	away	41.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	23.6%	away_+2.5	76.4%	home_-0.5	46.4%
away_+0.5	53.6%	home_+0.5	59.0%	away_-0.5	41.0%
home_+2.5	80.4%	away_-2.5	19.6%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	78.7%	under_2.5	21.3%	over_3.5	60.5%
under_3.5	39.5%	over_4.5	41.5%	under_4.5	58.5%
over_5.5	25.4%	under_5.5	74.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	61.7%	under_1.5	38.3%	over_2.5	35.3%
under_2.5	64.7%

team_away

over_1.5	61.9%	under_1.5	38.2%	over_2.5	35.4%
under_2.5	64.6%

most

home	40.0%	draw	19.8%	away	40.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	22.7%	away_+1.5	77.3%	home_-0.5	40.0%
away_+0.5	60.0%	home_+0.5	59.8%	away_-0.5	40.2%
home_+1.5	77.1%	away_-1.5	22.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	76.7%	under_20.5	23.3%	over_22.5	64.1%
under_22.5	35.9%	over_24.5	50.2%	under_24.5	49.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.1%	under_9.5	23.9%	over_11.5	57.4%
under_11.5	42.6%	over_13.5	38.1%	under_13.5	61.9%

team_away

over_9.5	74.4%	under_9.5	25.6%	over_11.5	55.1%
under_11.5	44.9%	over_13.5	35.9%	under_13.5	64.1%

most

home	48.1%	draw	7.0%	away	44.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.2%	away_+3.5	71.8%	home_-0.5	48.1%
away_+0.5	51.9%	home_+2.5	68.5%	away_-2.5	31.5%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.8%	no	81.2%

home

yes	14.3%	no	85.7%

away

yes	5.2%	no	94.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Elche predictions · Barcelona predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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