Brentford vs Tottenham prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Brentford vs Tottenham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Premier League
Brentford

LWLDD

Full time3-0Sat, 22 Aug 202617:30UK22°C · Cloudy
Tottenham

WWDLW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Brentford or draw

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Brentford 3-0 Tottenham
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Brentford at 49.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 55.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 57.4% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BrentfordWin probability
49.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Brentford or draw73.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 8.5 corners59.3%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Brentford: 49% is the model's line for this Premier League meeting on 22 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Brentford than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Brentford, 1 draws and 4 for Tottenham, averaging 2.6 goals a game. For shots markets, Yoane Wissa is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Form guide over the last six: Brentford W1 D3 L2, Tottenham W3 D2 L1. Team news worth noting: Brentford have Van den Berg ruled out, Milambo ruled out, Carvalho a doubt, Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo, Joshua Dasilva, Rico Henry, Mikkel Damsgaard, Aaron Hickey, Vitaly Janelt ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.2%@ 2.55
Over 11.5 corners30.4%@ 3.29
Medium risk

Both teams to score57.4%@ 1.74
Over 2.5 goals55.0%@ 1.82
Draw or Tottenham50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.44
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.55
1-0 correct score8.9%@ 11.30

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Brentford

49.2%+9.3%

Draw

24.3%-1.1%

Tottenham

26.5%-8.2%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.8%

High probability

Over 2.555.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.549.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersBrentford48.5%Tottenham40.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.8%2.555.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BrentfordLWLDD
TottenhamWWDLW

Last 5 meetings: Brentford 0 · 1 draws · Tottenham 4 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-01-01Brentford 0-0 Tottenham
2025-12-06Tottenham 2-0 Brentford
2025-02-02Brentford 0-2 Tottenham
2024-09-21Tottenham 3-1 Brentford
2024-01-31Tottenham 3-2 Brentford

Referee history

Brentford
S Barrott4 matches · team cards 1.0/g · match 2.8/g
A Madley3 matches · team cards 1.3/g · match 3.0/g
C Pawson3 matches · team cards 1.3/g · match 3.7/g
Tottenham
J Gillett5 matches · team cards 3.0/g · match 5.0/g
M Oliver5 matches · team cards 2.4/g · match 4.0/g
S Attwell4 matches · team cards 2.8/g · match 5.3/g

Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Yoane WissaBrentford · key player
To score39.6%

@ 2.53

1+ on target69.1%

@ 1.45

2+ shots73.0%

@ 1.37

Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.54
RicharlisonTottenham · key player
To score27.7%

@ 3.61

1+ on target51.2%

@ 1.95

2+ shots49.8%

@ 2.01

Shots/90 2.89SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.56
ThiagoBrentford · in form
To score38.2%

@ 2.62

1+ on target60.6%

@ 1.65

2+ shots55.8%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.58
Son Heung-MinTottenham · in form
To score21.6%

@ 4.63

1+ on target59.1%

@ 1.69

2+ shots57.4%

@ 1.74

Shots/90 2.46SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.31
Fabio CarvalhoBrentford · in form
To score9.0%

@ 11.11

1+ on target17.2%

@ 5.81

2+ shots7.2%

@ 13.89

Shots/90 2.56SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.55
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score25.6%

@ 3.91

1+ on target55.2%

@ 1.81

2+ shots56.0%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.35

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Brentford win2.402.03
Draw3.704.11
Tottenham win2.753.78
Over 2.5 goals1.671.82
Under 2.5 goals2.202.22

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Brentford win2.08
Draw3.98
Tottenham win3.74
Both teams to score1.74

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.06
Brentford most2.08
Tottenham most3.74

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.57
Brentford most2.06
Tottenham most2.44

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.65
Over 4.5 cards2.44
Over 5.5 cards4.05
Brentford most3.78
Tottenham most1.83

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.20
Over 9.5 SoT2.92
Brentford most2.16
Tottenham most2.43

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.65
Over 28.5 shots3.62
Brentford most1.76
Tottenham most2.67

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.86
Over 22.5 fouls2.66
Over 24.5 fouls4.23

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • Van den BergBrentfordOut0% to play
  • MilamboBrentfordOut0% to play
  • CarvalhoBrentfordDoubtful75% to play
  • Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo, Joshua Dasilva, Rico Henry, Mikkel Damsgaard, Aaron Hickey, Vitaly JaneltBrentfordOut
  • Pedro PorroTottenhamOut0% to play
  • Van de VenTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KudusTottenhamDoubtful25% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • OdobertTottenhamOut0% to play
  • P.M.SarrTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KulusevskiTottenhamOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.7% Over 7.5 57.7% Over 8.5 45.5% Over 9.5 34.3%
Most: Brentford 46.3% Most: Tottenham 41.2%
Brentford Over 4.2 42.2% Tottenham Over 4.2 38.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.0% Over 3.5 60.5% Over 4.5 41.1%
Most: Brentford 26.5% Most: Tottenham 54.5%
Brentford Over 1.8 51.4% Tottenham Over 1.8 70.9%

Brentford: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Yoane Wissa 2.77 1.26 0.54 69.1% 73.0% 39.6%
Thiago 2.25 1.12 0.58 60.6% 55.8% 38.2%
Fabio Carvalho 2.56 1.1 0.55 17.2% 7.2% 9.0%
Bryan Mbeumo 2.3 1.05 0.51 65.0% 66.9% 39.9%
Kevin Schade 1.98 0.89 0.34 49.9% 45.5% 23.2%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Richarlison 2.89 1.24 0.56 51.2% 49.8% 27.7%
Son Heung-Min 2.46 1.14 0.31 59.1% 57.4% 21.6%
Dominic Solanke 2.22 0.95 0.35 55.2% 56.0% 25.6%
James Maddison 2 0.85 0.45 40.2% 34.1% 23.8%
Brennan Johnson 1.94 0.7 0.44 35.3% 33.9% 23.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Brentford clean sheet 29.9%
Tottenham clean sheet 18.6%
Brentford win to nil 23.8%
Tottenham win to nil 12.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.1% draw 25.2% away 26.7%
double_chance
1X 73.3% 12 74.9% X2 51.9%
dnb
home 64.3% away 35.7%
btts
yes 57.4% no 42.6%
clean_sheet
home 30.2% away 18.6%
win_to_nil
home 24.0% away 12.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 11.2%
away_by_1 15.6% away_by_2 7.5% away_by_3plus 3.6%
correct_score
0-0 6.2% 0-1 6.2% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.9% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.9% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 5.3% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.8% under_0.5 6.2% over_1.5 78.8%
under_1.5 21.2% over_2.5 55.0% under_2.5 45.0%
over_3.5 32.7% under_3.5 67.3% over_4.5 16.6%
under_4.5 83.4% over_5.5 7.3% under_5.5 92.7%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 81.4% under_0.5 18.6% over_1.5 50.1%
under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 23.9% under_2.5 76.1%
team_away
over_0.5 69.8% under_0.5 30.2% over_1.5 33.7%
under_1.5 66.3% over_2.5 12.1% under_2.5 87.9%
most
home 48.1% draw 25.2% away 26.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.2% away_+2.5 88.8% home_-1.5 26.0%
away_+1.5 74.0% home_-0.5 48.1% away_+0.5 51.9%
home_+0.5 73.3% away_-0.5 26.7% home_+1.5 88.9%
away_-1.5 11.1% home_+2.5 96.5% away_-2.5 3.6%
total_exact
exact_0 6.2% exact_1 15.0% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.1% exact_5 9.3%
exact_6 4.5% exact_7plus 2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.9% draw 36.0% away 18.0%
total
over_0.5 76.2% under_0.5 23.8% over_1.5 42.1%
under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.5% under_2.5 82.5%
btts
yes 23.5% no 76.5%
total_exact
exact_0 23.8% exact_1 34.2% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.8% draw 35.9% away 27.3%
total
over_0.5 78.7% under_0.5 21.3% over_1.5 45.8%
under_1.5 54.2% over_2.5 20.3% under_2.5 79.7%
btts
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 37.2% H/D 6.4% H/A 2.4%
D/H 13.3% D/D 12.9% D/A 9.8%
A/H 1.9% A/D 3.8% A/A 12.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.7% under_7.5 26.3% over_8.5 62.4%
under_8.5 37.6% over_9.5 50.5% under_9.5 49.5%
over_10.5 39.0% under_10.5 61.0% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_12.5 20.2% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.9% under_3.5 30.1% over_4.5 54.4%
under_4.5 45.6% over_5.5 39.6% under_5.5 60.5%
team_away
over_3.5 64.9% under_3.5 35.2% over_4.5 48.6%
under_4.5 51.4% over_5.5 33.9% under_5.5 66.1%
most
home 48.6% draw 10.4% away 41.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.7% away_+3.5 79.3% home_-1.5 38.3%
away_+1.5 61.7% home_-0.5 48.6% away_+0.5 51.4%
home_+0.5 59.0% away_-0.5 41.0% home_+1.5 68.8%
away_-1.5 31.2% home_+3.5 84.4% away_-3.5 15.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.7% under_22.5 39.3% over_24.5 49.0%
under_24.5 51.0% over_26.5 37.8% under_26.5 62.3%
over_28.5 27.6% under_28.5 72.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.1% under_10.5 31.9% over_12.5 52.4%
under_12.5 47.6% over_14.5 37.3% under_14.5 62.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.2% under_10.5 44.8% over_12.5 38.5%
under_12.5 61.5% over_14.5 24.6% under_14.5 75.4%
most
home 56.7% draw 5.8% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.5% away_+4.5 66.5% home_-2.5 44.9%
away_+2.5 55.1% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+2.5 73.2%
away_-2.5 26.8% home_+4.5 82.0% away_-4.5 18.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.7% under_6.5 30.3% over_7.5 57.7%
under_7.5 42.3% over_8.5 45.5% under_8.5 54.5%
over_9.5 34.3% under_9.5 65.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.2% under_3.5 40.8% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.8% under_5.5 72.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.7% under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 38.6%
under_4.5 61.4% over_5.5 24.6% under_5.5 75.4%
most
home 46.3% draw 12.5% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.6% away_+2.5 76.4% home_-0.5 46.3%
away_+0.5 53.8% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2%
home_+2.5 80.2% away_-2.5 19.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.0% under_2.5 21.0% over_3.5 60.5%
under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 41.1% under_4.5 58.9%
over_5.5 24.7% under_5.5 75.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.4% under_1.5 48.6% over_2.5 24.9%
under_2.5 75.1%
team_away
over_1.5 70.9% under_1.5 29.1% over_2.5 45.1%
under_2.5 54.9%
most
home 26.5% draw 19.0% away 54.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.7% away_+1.5 87.3% home_-0.5 26.5%
away_+0.5 73.5% home_+0.5 45.5% away_-0.5 54.6%
home_+1.5 65.2% away_-1.5 34.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.8% under_20.5 46.2% over_22.5 37.5%
under_22.5 62.5% over_24.5 23.7% under_24.5 76.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 55.7% under_9.5 44.3% over_11.5 32.6%
under_11.5 67.4% over_13.5 15.7% under_13.5 84.3%
team_away
over_9.5 64.8% under_9.5 35.2% over_11.5 41.9%
under_11.5 58.1% over_13.5 22.6% under_13.5 77.4%
most
home 39.1% draw 8.3% away 52.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.3% away_+3.5 81.7% home_-0.5 39.1%
away_+0.5 60.9% home_+2.5 63.8% away_-2.5 36.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 4.4% no 95.6%
home
yes 1.5% no 98.5%
away
yes 3.0% no 97.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Brentford predictions · Tottenham predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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