Beveren vs Anderlecht: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Anderlecht
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Anderlecht at 44.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 56.0% and it missed (1 goals). We called Yes at 59.0% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Anderlecht: 44% is the model's line for this Pro League meeting on 16 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market broadly agrees, pricing Anderlecht at 45%. • Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. • Recent form reads W0 D0 L1 for Beveren against W2 D2 L2 for Anderlecht. • Beveren are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
30.2%+2.0%
25.4%-1.1%
44.4%-0.9%
value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Beveren
Anderlecht100.0%100.0%
100.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 3.33 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 78% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 79.1% | Over 7.5 | 68.7% | Over 8.5 | 57.1% | Over 9.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Beveren | 57.9% | Most: Anderlecht | 30.8% | ||||
| Beveren Over 4.2 | 58.1% | Anderlecht Over 4.2 | 38.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.4% | Over 3.5 | 62.5% | Over 4.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Beveren | 34.8% | Most: Anderlecht | 45.5% | ||
| Beveren Over 1.8 | 59.8% | Anderlecht Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Beveren clean sheet | 19.7% |
|---|---|
| Anderlecht clean sheet | 27.0% |
| Beveren win to nil | 13.8% |
| Anderlecht win to nil | 21.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 30.2% | draw | 25.5% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 55.6% | 12 | 74.6% | X2 | 69.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 40.5% | away | 59.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 59.0% | no | 41.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 19.7% | away | 27.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 13.8% | away | 21.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 16.9% | home_by_2 | 8.7% | home_by_3plus | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.2% | away_by_2 | 13.6% | away_by_3plus | 9.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 0-1 | 8.2% | 0-2 | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.8% | 0-4 | 1.6% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 1-1 | 11.9% | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-3 | 5.0% | 1-4 | 2.0% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 4.6% | 2-1 | 7.4% | 2-2 | 6.0% |
| 2-3 | 3.2% | 2-4 | 1.3% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 3-1 | 3.2% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.1% | under_0.5 | 5.9% | over_1.5 | 79.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 20.5% | over_2.5 | 56.0% | under_2.5 | 44.1% |
| over_3.5 | 33.6% | under_3.5 | 66.4% | over_4.5 | 17.2% |
| under_4.5 | 82.8% | over_5.5 | 7.6% | under_5.5 | 92.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.8% | under_0.5 | 27.2% | over_1.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.6% | over_2.5 | 14.3% | under_2.5 | 85.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 80.3% | under_0.5 | 19.7% | over_1.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.8% | over_2.5 | 22.2% | under_2.5 | 77.8% |
most
| home | 30.2% | draw | 25.5% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.5% | away_+2.5 | 95.5% | home_-1.5 | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.8% | home_-0.5 | 30.2% | away_+0.5 | 69.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 55.6% | away_-0.5 | 44.4% | home_+1.5 | 76.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.2% | home_+2.5 | 90.4% | away_-2.5 | 9.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.9% | exact_1 | 14.6% | exact_2 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.4% | exact_5 | 9.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.7% | exact_7plus | 3.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 44.0% | draw | 37.4% | away | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.3% | over_1.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.1% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.3% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.9% | exact_4plus | 5.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 33.7% | away | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.5% | under_0.5 | 18.5% | over_1.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.7% | over_2.5 | 23.9% | under_2.5 | 76.1% |
btts
| yes | 31.6% | no | 68.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.5% | H/D | 8.5% | H/A | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.4% | D/D | 12.6% | D/A | 15.4% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 2.9% | A/A | 14.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.6% | under_7.5 | 22.4% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.1% | under_9.5 | 44.9% |
| over_10.5 | 43.3% | under_10.5 | 56.7% | over_11.5 | 32.4% |
| under_11.5 | 67.6% | over_12.5 | 23.2% | under_12.5 | 76.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.1% | under_3.5 | 22.9% | over_4.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.3% | over_5.5 | 47.6% | under_5.5 | 52.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.6% | under_3.5 | 36.4% | over_4.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.5% | over_5.5 | 31.3% | under_5.5 | 68.7% |
most
| home | 55.7% | draw | 10.3% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.5% | away_+3.5 | 74.5% | home_-1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.1% | home_-0.5 | 55.7% | away_+0.5 | 44.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.0% | home_+1.5 | 75.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.8% | home_+3.5 | 88.8% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.2% | under_22.5 | 28.8% | over_24.5 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 40.0% | over_26.5 | 48.3% | under_26.5 | 51.7% |
| over_28.5 | 37.0% | under_28.5 | 63.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.8% | under_10.5 | 21.2% | over_12.5 | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.1% | over_14.5 | 49.6% | under_14.5 | 50.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.2% | under_10.5 | 41.8% | over_12.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.2% | over_14.5 | 26.1% | under_14.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 63.9% | draw | 5.4% | away | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.6% | away_+4.5 | 59.4% | home_-2.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.6% | home_-0.5 | 63.9% | away_+0.5 | 36.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.4% | away_-0.5 | 30.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.4% | away_-4.5 | 13.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 79.1% | under_6.5 | 20.9% | over_7.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 31.3% | over_8.5 | 57.2% | under_8.5 | 42.9% |
| over_9.5 | 45.5% | under_9.5 | 54.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.5% | under_3.5 | 26.6% | over_4.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.9% | over_5.5 | 42.8% | under_5.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.0% | under_3.5 | 44.0% | over_4.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.6% | over_5.5 | 24.2% | under_5.5 | 75.8% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 11.3% | away | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.5% | away_+2.5 | 65.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.2% | home_+0.5 | 69.2% | away_-0.5 | 30.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.5% | away_-2.5 | 13.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.5% | under_2.5 | 19.6% | over_3.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 43.2% | under_4.5 | 56.8% |
| over_5.5 | 26.6% | under_5.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.8% | under_1.5 | 40.2% | over_2.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 34.8% | draw | 19.7% | away | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.7% | away_+1.5 | 81.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.2% | home_+0.5 | 54.5% | away_-0.5 | 45.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.9% | away_-1.5 | 27.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.5% | under_20.5 | 32.6% | over_22.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 46.6% | over_24.5 | 39.5% | under_24.5 | 60.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.8% | under_9.5 | 41.2% | over_11.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 62.2% | over_13.5 | 21.0% | under_13.5 | 79.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.7% | under_9.5 | 23.3% | over_11.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.5% | over_13.5 | 39.6% | under_13.5 | 60.4% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 6.7% | away | 61.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 15.8% | away_+3.5 | 84.2% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.7% | home_+2.5 | 53.3% | away_-2.5 | 46.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.7% | no | 82.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.2% | no | 93.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.3% | no | 87.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Beveren predictions · Anderlecht predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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