Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Gaziantep or draw
Draw or Alanyaspor
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Gaziantep at 37.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.2% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 55.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Gaziantep and Alanyaspor on 15 August 2026: Gaziantep nose ahead at 38%. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 38%. • No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Gaziantep, 2 draws and 3 for Alanyaspor at 1.8 goals per match. • Form guide over the last six: Gaziantep W1 D0 L5, Alanyaspor W1 D2 L3. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
37.8%-0.3%
27.1%+0.2%
35.1%+0.1%
value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gaziantep 0 · 2 draws · Alanyaspor 3 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Gaziantep
Alanyaspor67.6%47.1%
61.8%61.8%
17.6%29.4%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 55%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.9% | Over 7.5 | 62.1% | Over 8.5 | 49.7% | Over 9.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gaziantep | 53.1% | Most: Alanyaspor | 34.6% | ||||
| Gaziantep Over 4.2 | 50.0% | Alanyaspor Over 4.2 | 36.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.4% | Over 3.5 | 73.2% | Over 4.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gaziantep | 34.8% | Most: Alanyaspor | 47.0% | ||
| Gaziantep Over 1.8 | 67.3% | Alanyaspor Over 1.8 | 74.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Gaziantep clean sheet | 26.8% |
|---|---|
| Alanyaspor clean sheet | 25.3% |
| Gaziantep win to nil | 19.4% |
| Alanyaspor win to nil | 17.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.8% | draw | 27.1% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.9% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.8% | away | 48.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.1% | no | 44.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.9% | away | 25.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.5% | away | 18.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.1% | home_by_2 | 11.3% | home_by_3plus | 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.2% | away_by_2 | 10.3% | away_by_3plus | 5.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 0-1 | 8.4% | 0-2 | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 3.5% | 1-4 | 1.2% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 2-1 | 8.4% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 3.9% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.6% | under_0.5 | 7.4% | over_1.5 | 75.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.6% | over_2.5 | 50.2% | under_2.5 | 49.8% |
| over_3.5 | 28.2% | under_3.5 | 71.8% | over_4.5 | 13.5% |
| under_4.5 | 86.5% | over_5.5 | 5.6% | under_5.5 | 94.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.6% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.2% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.1% | under_0.5 | 26.9% | over_1.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.2% | over_2.5 | 14.6% | under_2.5 | 85.4% |
most
| home | 37.8% | draw | 27.1% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.4% | away_+2.5 | 93.6% | home_-1.5 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 37.8% | away_+0.5 | 62.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.1% | home_+1.5 | 84.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.9% | home_+2.5 | 94.5% | away_-2.5 | 5.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.4% | exact_1 | 17.1% | exact_2 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.8% | exact_5 | 7.9% |
| exact_6 | 3.6% | exact_7plus | 2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.4% | draw | 42.8% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.6% | under_0.5 | 31.4% | over_1.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.8% | over_2.5 | 11.2% | under_2.5 | 88.8% |
btts
| yes | 19.2% | no | 80.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.4% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.1% | exact_4plus | 3.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.3% | draw | 36.9% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.3% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.2% | no | 72.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.6% | H/D | 4.2% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.1% | D/D | 15.8% | D/A | 11.9% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 6.2% | A/A | 22.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.1% | under_7.5 | 29.9% | over_8.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.9% | over_9.5 | 45.9% | under_9.5 | 54.2% |
| over_10.5 | 34.4% | under_10.5 | 65.6% | over_11.5 | 24.6% |
| under_11.5 | 75.4% | over_12.5 | 16.8% | under_12.5 | 83.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.9% | under_3.5 | 30.1% | over_4.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.0% | over_5.5 | 38.8% | under_5.5 | 61.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.3% | under_3.5 | 39.7% | over_4.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.8% | over_5.5 | 28.6% | under_5.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 10.9% | away | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.6% | away_+3.5 | 78.4% | home_-1.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.4% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.5% | away_-0.5 | 37.5% | home_+1.5 | 72.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.6% | home_+3.5 | 87.4% | away_-3.5 | 12.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.5% | under_22.5 | 37.5% | over_24.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.8% | over_26.5 | 38.3% | under_26.5 | 61.7% |
| over_28.5 | 27.7% | under_28.5 | 72.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.4% | under_10.5 | 28.6% | over_12.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.8% | over_14.5 | 39.2% | under_14.5 | 60.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.8% | under_10.5 | 45.2% | over_12.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.9% | over_14.5 | 22.8% | under_14.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 5.9% | away | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.2% | away_+4.5 | 64.8% | home_-2.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% | away_+0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.5% | away_-0.5 | 34.5% | home_+2.5 | 76.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.8% | home_+4.5 | 84.7% | away_-4.5 | 15.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.9% | under_6.5 | 26.1% | over_7.5 | 62.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.9% | over_8.5 | 49.7% | under_8.5 | 50.3% |
| over_9.5 | 38.0% | under_9.5 | 62.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.8% | under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.1% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.4% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 53.1% | draw | 12.3% | away | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.1% | away_+2.5 | 70.9% | home_-0.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.9% | home_+0.5 | 65.4% | away_-0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.8% | away_-2.5 | 15.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.4% | under_2.5 | 12.7% | over_3.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.8% | over_4.5 | 55.6% | under_4.5 | 44.4% |
| over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 67.3% | under_1.5 | 32.8% | over_2.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 74.5% | under_1.5 | 25.5% | over_2.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 50.3% |
most
| home | 34.8% | draw | 18.2% | away | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.7% | away_+1.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.1% | home_+0.5 | 53.0% | away_-0.5 | 47.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.5% | away_-1.5 | 29.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 89.1% | under_20.5 | 10.9% | over_22.5 | 80.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 19.9% | over_24.5 | 68.0% | under_24.5 | 32.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.7% | under_9.5 | 15.3% | over_11.5 | 68.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 31.9% | over_13.5 | 48.0% | under_13.5 | 52.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.1% | under_9.5 | 13.9% | over_11.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.7% | over_13.5 | 50.5% | under_13.5 | 49.5% |
most
| home | 44.6% | draw | 7.2% | away | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.9% | away_+3.5 | 75.1% | home_-0.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.4% | home_+2.5 | 65.8% | away_-2.5 | 34.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.8% | no | 89.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Gaziantep predictions · Alanyaspor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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