Academico Viseu vs Santa Clara: model prediction
Primeira LigaDraw or Santa Clara
Over 1.5 goals
Academico Viseu or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Santa Clara at 38.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 53.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Santa Clara at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 15 August 2026. Bookmakers see it the same way, 38% on Santa Clara, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 40% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 47%. As a promoted side, Academico Viseu carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Academico Viseu W0 D1 L0, Santa Clara W2 D3 L1. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
32.1%-0.9%
29.7%+0.9%
38.2%+0.0%
value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Academico Viseu
Santa Clara100.0%100.0%
100.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.7% | Over 7.5 | 52.5% | Over 8.5 | 39.7% | Over 9.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Academico Viseu | 51.7% | Most: Santa Clara | 35.1% | ||||
| Academico Viseu Over 4.2 | 42.2% | Santa Clara Over 4.2 | 30.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.7% | Over 3.5 | 75.4% | Over 4.5 | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Academico Viseu | 39.6% | Most: Santa Clara | 42.3% | ||
| Academico Viseu Over 1.8 | 71.9% | Santa Clara Over 1.8 | 73.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Academico Viseu clean sheet | 30.0% |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 33.9% |
| Academico Viseu win to nil | 19.2% |
| Santa Clara win to nil | 23.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.1% | draw | 29.7% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.8% | 12 | 70.3% | X2 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 45.7% | away | 54.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.9% | no | 53.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.0% | away | 33.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.2% | away | 23.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.2% | home_by_2 | 9.0% | home_by_3plus | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.5% | away_by_2 | 11.1% | away_by_3plus | 5.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.8% | 0-1 | 11.6% | 0-2 | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.0% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 1-1 | 13.9% | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 2-1 | 7.2% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.2% | 3-1 | 2.6% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.2% | under_0.5 | 10.8% | over_1.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.8% | over_2.5 | 40.0% | under_2.5 | 60.0% |
| over_3.5 | 19.8% | under_3.5 | 80.2% | over_4.5 | 8.2% |
| under_4.5 | 91.8% | over_5.5 | 2.9% | under_5.5 | 97.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.1% | under_0.5 | 33.9% | over_1.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.6% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.0% | under_0.5 | 30.0% | over_1.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.1% | over_2.5 | 12.2% | under_2.5 | 87.9% |
most
| home | 32.1% | draw | 29.7% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.9% | away_+2.5 | 96.1% | home_-1.5 | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.1% | home_-0.5 | 32.1% | away_+0.5 | 67.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+1.5 | 83.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.7% | home_+2.5 | 94.5% | away_-2.5 | 5.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.8% | exact_1 | 21.9% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.2% | exact_4 | 11.6% | exact_5 | 5.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.2% | draw | 43.7% | away | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.2% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.4% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
btts
| yes | 18.1% | no | 81.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.8% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.8% | draw | 38.0% | away | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.8% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.0% | over_2.5 | 16.1% | under_2.5 | 83.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.7% | no | 76.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.8% | H/D | 4.2% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.4% | D/D | 16.6% | D/A | 9.7% |
| A/H | 2.8% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 16.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.6% | under_7.5 | 29.4% | over_8.5 | 59.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.7% | over_9.5 | 47.7% | under_9.5 | 52.3% |
| over_10.5 | 36.7% | under_10.5 | 63.3% | over_11.5 | 27.1% |
| under_11.5 | 72.9% | over_12.5 | 19.2% | under_12.5 | 80.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.7% | under_3.5 | 32.3% | over_4.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.6% | over_5.5 | 38.1% | under_5.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.6% | over_5.5 | 32.2% | under_5.5 | 67.8% |
most
| home | 48.8% | draw | 10.3% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.1% | away_+3.5 | 78.9% | home_-1.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 61.4% | home_-0.5 | 48.8% | away_+0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.9% | home_+1.5 | 68.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.2% | home_+3.5 | 84.3% | away_-3.5 | 15.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 54.4% | under_22.5 | 45.6% | over_24.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.7% | over_26.5 | 31.2% | under_26.5 | 68.8% |
| over_28.5 | 21.8% | under_28.5 | 78.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 63.7% | under_10.5 | 36.3% | over_12.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.0% | over_14.5 | 31.8% | under_14.5 | 68.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.5% | under_10.5 | 48.5% | over_12.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.6% | over_14.5 | 21.0% | under_14.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 6.1% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.6% | away_+4.5 | 68.4% | home_-2.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.7% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+2.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.9% | home_+4.5 | 82.4% | away_-4.5 | 17.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.7% | under_6.5 | 34.3% | over_7.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.5% | over_8.5 | 39.7% | under_8.5 | 60.3% |
| over_9.5 | 28.4% | under_9.5 | 71.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.0% | under_3.5 | 40.0% | over_4.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.8% | over_5.5 | 27.1% | under_5.5 | 72.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.2% | under_3.5 | 51.8% | over_4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.6% | over_5.5 | 17.4% | under_5.5 | 82.6% |
most
| home | 51.7% | draw | 13.2% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.5% | away_+2.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.3% | home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.6% | under_2.5 | 11.4% | over_3.5 | 75.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.6% | over_4.5 | 58.3% | under_4.5 | 41.7% |
| over_5.5 | 40.8% | under_5.5 | 59.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 71.9% | under_1.5 | 28.1% | over_2.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 73.4% | under_1.5 | 26.6% | over_2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 51.7% |
most
| home | 39.6% | draw | 18.1% | away | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.7% | away_+1.5 | 76.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.4% | home_+0.5 | 57.7% | away_-0.5 | 42.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.2% | away_-1.5 | 25.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 88.6% | under_20.5 | 11.4% | over_22.5 | 80.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 19.5% | over_24.5 | 69.9% | under_24.5 | 30.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.2% | under_9.5 | 15.8% | over_11.5 | 69.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.7% | over_13.5 | 51.7% | under_13.5 | 48.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.5% | under_9.5 | 15.5% | over_11.5 | 69.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.2% | over_13.5 | 52.3% | under_13.5 | 47.7% |
most
| home | 46.4% | draw | 6.4% | away | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.4% | away_+3.5 | 71.6% | home_-0.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.6% | home_+2.5 | 65.2% | away_-2.5 | 34.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.9% | no | 83.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.6% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Academico Viseu predictions · Santa Clara predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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